US Open 2016 Women's Semifinals: Kerber vs. Wozniacki Preview, Predictions
The semifinal match between Angelique Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki pits a would-be No. 1 against a former top-ranked WTA Tour player.
Kerber, 29, defeated Roberta Vinci 7-5, 6-0 and Wozniacki, 26, demolished Anastasija Sevastova 6-0, 6-2 in quarterfinal action Tuesday at the 2016 U.S. Open.
Once ranked No. 1 for 49 consecutive weeks in 2011, Wozniacki is currently No. 74 after a series of injuries.
After Kerber defeated Vinci, she held up one finger signaling her quest for No. 1, and she's certainly in the driver's seat. If Kerber reaches the final, Serena Williams has to win the tournament to retain the No. 1 ranking.
"When I was a kid, I was always dreaming to being the number one," Kerber told the BBC.
A win would put Kerber in a Grand Slam final for the third time this year. She's trying to win her second Grand Slam after winning the Australian Open in January.
Twice a runner-up at Flushing Meadows, Wozniacki hopes to win her first Grand Slam title.
In the most unlikely, yet fitting semifinal, Kerber and Wozniacki are in search for the title and No. 1 ranking.
Kerber at the US Open
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Kerber has yet to drop a set in the 2016 U.S. Open. She reached the semifinals after ousting Vinci, a 2015 U.S. Open finalist. Using similar tactics she employed against Serena Williams in the semifinals last year, Vinci frustrated Kerber early in the match, breaking her serve three times in the first set.
The German committed 22 unforced errors to 19 winners. After taking the first set, Kerber cleaned up her game and went on offense. She hit 14 winners to just three unforced errors.
Two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova was supposed to be the big threat in Kerber's draw. However, Kerber handled Kvitova with ease, winning 6-3, 7-5. Kerber was in control of the match from start.
In the third round, Kerber defeated American teen Catherine Bellis 6-1, 6-1 and didn't drop a game in her opening round against Polona Hercog, who retired the match in the second set down 0-6, 0-1.
Wozniacki at the US Open
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Wozniacki raced through her quarterfinals match against unseeded Anastasija Sevastova, who seemed overwhelmed and outmatched from start to finish.
In the fourth round, Wozniacki dismantled No. 8 seed Madison Keys 6-3, 6-4.
Because of her lower ranking, Wozniacki had to face No. 9 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova in the second round. Wozniacki upset the two-time Grand Slam winner 6-4, 6-4.
The biggest test for Wozniacki was in the opening round against American Taylor Townsend, who took the first set before losing 6-4, 4-6, 4-6.
After she defeated Keys, Wozniacki told WTA.com that despite her lower ranking, she always feels the pressure of having been a world No. 1. "Everybody wants to beat you. No matter what my ranking is at this current moment , I always feel like I'm a target," Wozniacki said.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Kerber leads the head-to-head 7-5. However, all of Wozniacki's wins have come on hard courts. Both counter punchers, Wozniacki and Kerber have gone three sets in five of their matches.
They split their hard-court matches last year. Kerber defeated Wozniacki 6-2, 6-3 at the China Open and Wozniacki defeated Kerber 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 in Tokyo.
Besides a stretch in 2012, when Kerber won three in a row, winning streaks have been limited to two for each player.
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Biggest X-Factors
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Fitness and nerves will be the biggest X-factors in this match. Kerber and Wozniacki are two of the fastest and most athletic players on the tour.
They can run down balls and hit defensive shots from anywhere on the court. So when it comes to two equally fit players, mind over muscle could decide this match.
Mental stress can hasten fatigue. Kerber has far more to lose and Wozniacki has already exceeded expectations. If Kerber allows the enormity of the moment to burden her, she might play tighter and make more unforced errors.
Kerber Will Win If...
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Kerber's late-career success happened after she turned up the offense in her defense-focused game. No longer content to sit back and allow her opponent to dictate pace, Kerber now picks her moments and goes on the attack.
That's what she needs to do against Wozniacki. She has to keep calm and stay in the moment. Kerber got a little tight when playing for the No. 1 ranking at the Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.
Kerber is used to running her opponents ragged. She can't count on that against Wozniacki, who completed her debut at the New York Marathon in 3:26:33. Instead, Kerber must stay aggressive and take chances at the net.
She also has to stay confident. "I think I have, right now, more confidence going out there," Kerber told WTA.com in her post-match press conference. "I'm not thinking about quarters, semis or whatever. I'm just going there to play a good match and to win."
Wozniacki Will Win If...
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Wozniacki has had more success at Flushing Meadows than Kerber. She has to draw on that experience and relax on the court.
When swinging freely, Wozniacki can defend against anyone. And as she demonstrated in her win over Maria Sharapova in the 2014 semifinals, Wozniacki can play aggressive against big hitters.
She must step in and take the ball early. She can't hang behind the baseline and create bigger and better angles for Kerber.
Players often say they have nothing to lose, but it's true in this case for Wozniacki. Her ranking will soar from the 70s to the top 30 regardless of what happens in this match. She must go into the match willing to take it to Kerber in order to take her out.
Prediction
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Kerber suffered two heartbreaking losses this summer. She settled for silver at the Olympics and runner up in Cincinnati. Tough lessons like those can fuel breakthrough.
Kerber told CNN that she's in the best shape of her life. In fact, she believes she is among the most fit on the tour.
Skilled, aggressive, tenacious and driven, Kerber has motivation and determination on her side. The match will be a rally lover's dream. Wozniacki will make it difficult, but Kerber is the better player right now.
Kerber wins in three sets.
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