Was this the last big moment of the fantasy season for Ezekiel Elliott?Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The reason almost all fantasy football championships are played in Week 16 instead of Week 17 is to avoid any playing-time issues related to teams that already clinched the playoffs. When you get this late in the NFL season, those concerns will pop up, but there’s a good chance nothing like that will happen this week. 

By the time the Dallas Cowboys kick off on Monday night, they’ll know if they already clinched home-field advantage or need a win over the Detroit Lions to get it. If the New York Giants tie or lose to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, the Cowboys lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That could raise questions about how many minutes key players would see on the field in a meaningless game. 

If the Cowboys clinch the top seed before they take the field in Week 16, would it make sense to sit starters? Assuming they’d do the same in Week 17, that would mean three weeks off before they host a playoff game in the divisional round. While they’d like to avoid injuries, that length of inactivity could also be risky. 

If Dallas has nothing to play for in Week 16, my guess is that they’d still stick with starters like Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant for most of their normal reps against the Lions. Maybe Darren McFadden gets mixed in a little more, since he just returned to action in Week 15, but I’d still feel confident using Elliott for fantasy. 

Luckily, that’s the biggest concern as it pertains to playing-time issues for potential playoff teams. Hopefully, nothing else gets in your way on the road to a fantasy championship. 

Here’s my first look at the points-per-reception (PPR) rankings for Week 16. These will change throughout the week and up to Saturday’s action as we get more information about injuries and limitations, so make sure to bookmark this page.

Expect the San Diego Chargers to face little resistance from the Cleveland Browns.Harry How/Getty Images

I present my top 100 players (minus quarterbacks) for the week as a way to help determine your flex spots. You may favor a certain position or player over another based on his role and/or your scoring rules.

As an additional tiebreaker, here are the teams I like as a whole this week based on their matchups:

• New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles)
• San Diego Chargers (at Cleveland Browns)
• New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)
• Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Week 16 Top 100 PPR Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	Pos	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Antonio Brown (PIT)	vs. BAL	WR1	1	0
2	Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)	at PHI	WR2	2	0
3	LeSean McCoy (BUF)	vs. MIA	RB1	8	+5
4	Mike Evans (TB)	at NO	WR3	5	+1
5	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)	vs. DET	RB2	4	-1
6	Jordy Nelson (GB)	vs. MIN	WR4	10	+4
7	T.Y. Hilton (IND)	at OAK	WR5	6	-1
8	Le'Veon Bell (PIT)	vs. BAL	RB3	3	-5
9	Julio Jones (ATL)	at CAR	WR6	7	-2
10	David Johnson (ARI)	at SEA	RB4	9	-1
11	Dez Bryant (DAL)	vs. DET	WR7	11	0
12	Brandin Cooks (NO)	vs. TB	WR8	16	+4
13	DeMarco Murray (TEN)	at JAC	RB5	12	-1
14	Julian Edelman (NE)	vs. NYJ	WR9	13	-1
15	Jordan Howard (CHI)	vs. WAS	RB6	15	0
16	Michael Crabtree (OAK)	vs. IND	WR10	14	-2
17	Latavius Murray (OAK)	vs. IND	RB7	18	+1
18	Demaryius Thomas (DEN)	at KC	WR11	21	+3
19	Devonta Freeman (ATL)	at CAR	RB8	17	-2
20	Davante Adams (GB)	vs. MIN	WR12	32	+12
21	Carlos Hyde (SF)	at LA	RB9	28	+7
22	Amari Cooper (OAK)	vs. IND	WR13	19	-3
23	Doug Baldwin (SEA)	vs. ARI	WR14	27	+4
24	Michael Thomas (NO)	vs. TB	WR15	20	-4
25	Greg Olsen (CAR)	vs. ATL	TE1	25	0
26	Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)	at KC	WR16	29	+3
27	Todd Gurley (LA)	vs. SF	RB10	23	-4
28	Golden Tate (DET)	at DAL	WR17	30	+2
29	Tyrell Williams (SD)	at CLE	WR18	24	-5
30	LeGarrette Blount (NE)	vs. NYJ	RB11	40	+10
31	Travis Kelce (KC)	vs. DEN	TE2	34	+3
32	Dontrelle Inman (SD)	at CLE	WR19	35	+3
33	Jarvis Landry (MIA)	at BUF	WR20	26	-7
34	Ty Montgomery (GB)	vs. MIN	WR21	22	-12
35	Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)	at SEA	WR22	37	+2
36	DeSean Jackson (WAS)	at CHI	WR23	46	+10
37	Lamar Miller (HOU)	vs. CIN	RB12	33	-4
38	Frank Gore (IND)	at OAK	RB13	50	+12
39	Alshon Jeffery (CHI)	vs. WAS	WR24	31	-8
40	Delanie Walker (TEN)	at JAC	TE3	39	-1
41	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)	vs. CIN	WR25	48	+7
42	Malcolm Mitchell (NE)	vs. NYJ	WR26	38	-4
43	Jonathan Stewart (CAR)	vs. ATL	RB14	58	+15
44	Pierre Garcon (WAS)	at CHI	WR27	74	+30
45	Jamison Crowder (WAS)	at CHI	WR28	43	-2
46	Robert Kelley (WAS)	at CHI	RB15	49	+3
47	Bilal Powell (NYJ)	at NE	RB16	36	-11
48	Cameron Brate (TB)	at NO	TE4	47	-1
49	Stefon Diggs (MIN)	at GB	WR29	52	+3
50	Sammy Watkins (BUF)	vs. MIA	WR30	56	+6
51	Mark Ingram (NO)	vs. TB	RB17	51	0
52	Steve Smith (BAL)	at PIT	WR31	61	+9
53	Kenneth Farrow (SD)	at CLE	RB18	63	+10
54	Rishard Matthews (TEN)	at JAC	WR32	44	-10
55	Thomas Rawls (SEA)	vs. ARI	RB19	65	+10
56	Tyler Eifert (CIN)	at HOU	TE5	54	-2
57	Spencer Ware (KC)	vs. DEN	RB20	42	-15
58	Tyreek Hill (KC)	vs. DEN	WR33	57	-1
59	Jeremy Hill (CIN)	at HOU	RB21	53	-6
60	Cameron Meredith (CHI)	vs. WAS	WR34	45	-15
61	Taylor Gabriel (ATL)	at CAR	WR35	64	+3
62	Sterling Shepard (NYG)	at PHI	WR36	80	+18
63	Doug Martin (TB)	at NO	RB22	62	-1
64	Jay Ajayi (MIA)	at BUF	RB23	41	-23
65	Kyle Rudolph (MIN)	at GB	TE6	70	+5
66	Robby Anderson (NYJ)	at NE	WR37	60	-6
67	Ryan Mathews (PHI)	vs. NYG	RB24	69	+2
68	Tyler Lockett (SEA)	vs. ARI	WR38	76	+8
69	Zach Ertz (PHI)	vs. NYG	TE7	71	+2
70	Tevin Coleman (ATL)	at CAR	RB25	67	-3
71	Ted Ginn (CAR)	vs. ATL	WR39	87	+16
72	Dion Lewis (NE)	vs. NYJ	RB26	55	-17
73	Kenny Britt (LA)	vs. SF	WR40	66	-7
74	Kenneth Dixon (BAL)	at PIT	RB27	73	-1
75	Isaiah Crowell (CLE)	vs. SD	RB28	77	+2
76	Jimmy Graham (SEA)	vs. ARI	TE8	72	-4
77	Willie Snead (NO)	vs. TB	WR41	59	-18
78	Terrance West (BAL)	at PIT	RB29	81	+3
79	Mike Wallace (BAL)	at PIT	WR42	75	-4
80	Jordan Matthews (PHI)	vs. NYG	WR43	68	-12
81	Antonio Gates (SD)	at CLE	TE9	91	+10
82	Marqise Lee (JAC)	vs. TEN	WR44	86	+4
83	Jordan Reed (WAS)	at CHI	TE10	82	-1
84	Randall Cobb (GB)	vs. MIN	WR45	104	+20
85	Allen Robinson (JAC)	vs. TEN	WR46	79	-6
86	Derrick Henry (TEN)	at JAC	RB30	110	+24
87	Rashad Jennings (NYG)	at PHI	RB31	93	+6
88	Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)	vs. ATL	WR47	83	-5
89	Tim Hightower (NO)	vs. TB	RB32	90	+1
90	Eric Ebron (DET)	at DAL	TE11	97	+7
91	Justin Forsett (DEN)	at KC	RB33	107	+16
92	Brandon Marshall (NYJ)	at NE	WR48	85	-7
93	Terrelle Pryor (CLE)	vs. SD	WR49	88	-5
94	J.J. Nelson (ARI)	at SEA	WR50	103	+9
95	Martellus Bennett (NE)	vs. NYJ	TE12	84	-11
96	Adrian Peterson (MIN)	at GB	RB34	100	+4
97	Brandon LaFell (CIN)	at HOU	WR51	112	+15
98	Mike Gillislee (BUF)	vs. MIA	RB35	116	+18
99	Charles Clay (BUF)	vs. MIA	TE13	125	+26
100	Tyler Boyd (CIN)	at HOU	WR52	118	+18

      

2016 fantasy football rankings powered by FantasyPros

ECR—Expert Consensus Ranking.

Tom Brady should bounce back in a rematch with the Jets.Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Better Than Usual 

Philip Rivers, SD (at CLE)

Rivers hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in any of his past four games but has nine touchdowns over that span, so his fantasy production has been OK. Even though the Chargers have been eliminated from the playoffs, Rivers won’t limp to the finish line, especially with a prime matchup against the Browns in Week 16. Over the past four weeks, the Browns allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

Week 16 projection: 285 to 290 yards, 2 touchdowns

Concern

Marcus Mariota, TEN (at JAC)

Mariota was a great fantasy asset for about two months until the Week 13 bye. Since then, he’s faced the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. While both of those games resulted in wins for the Tennessee Titans, Mariota has just 329 passing yards, no touchdowns and 36 rushing yards in the past two weeks.

Even though the Jacksonville Jaguars may not pose the same threat as the Broncos or Chiefs, they’ve been good enough to hold quarterbacks to the eighth-fewest fantasy points in the past four weeks. Mariota is merely a mid-range option for Week 16. 

Week 16 projection: 235 to 245 passing yards, 1 touchdown; 25 rushing yards

Avoid

Carson Palmer, ARI (at SEA)

Playing the New Orleans Saints tends to pad the fantasy stats for most quarterbacks and Palmer wasn’t an exception in Week 15. He completed 28 of 40 pass attempts for 318 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’ll get much tougher competition when he faces the Seahawks in Seattle on Saturday afternoon. 

In the past four weeks, quarterbacks posted just 815 yards and six touchdowns against the Seahawks. Palmer threw for 342 yards against them back in Week 7, but he needed 49 attempts to get there and didn’t have a touchdown while taking four sacks. Look elsewhere for a quarterback this week. 

Week 16 projection: 220 to 230 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions

Sleeper

Matt Barkley, CHI (vs. WAS)

Barkley’s volume makes him a viable option in Week 16 against the Washington Redskins. He’s averaging more than 270 yards and nearly 37 attempts per game over his starts in the past four weeks with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Only five other quarterbacks have more yards during that span.

This week, Barkley faces a Redskins defense that gave up 1,109 yards and seven touchdowns in their past four games, which is why they rank fifth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in the past month. If you’re struggling for a quarterback, Barkley isn’t a bad desperation play.

Week 16 projection: 260 to 270 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

Week 16 Quarterback Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Tom Brady (NE)	vs. NYJ	1	0
2	Drew Brees (NO)	vs. TB	2	0
3	Aaron Rodgers (GB)	vs. MIN	4	+1
4	Matt Ryan (ATL)	at CAR	5	+1
5	Andrew Luck (IND)	at OAK	3	-2
6	Kirk Cousins (WAS)	at CHI	6	0
7	Philip Rivers (SD)	at CLE	8	+1
8	Derek Carr (OAK)	vs. IND	9	+1
9	Russell Wilson (SEA)	vs. ARI	11	+2
10	Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)	vs. BAL	7	-3
11	Cam Newton (CAR)	vs. ATL	10	-1
12	Jameis Winston (TB)	at NO	12	0
13	Dak Prescott (DAL)	vs. DET	14	+1
14	Eli Manning (NYG)	at PHI	16	+2
15	Matthew Stafford (DET)	at DAL	18	+3
16	Matt Barkley (CHI)	vs. WAS	20	+4
17	Marcus Mariota (TEN)	at JAC	13	-4
18	Tyrod Taylor (BUF)	vs. MIA	15	-3
19	Colin Kaepernick (SF)	at LA	17	-2
20	Joe Flacco (BAL)	at PIT	19	-1
21	Matt Moore (MIA)	at BUF	21	0
22	Andy Dalton (CIN)	at HOU	23	+1
23	Carson Palmer (ARI)	at SEA	22	-1
24	Tom Savage (HOU)	vs. CIN	27	+3
25	Blake Bortles (JAC)	vs. TEN	24	-1
26	Alex Smith (KC)	vs. DEN	26	0
27	Carson Wentz (PHI)	vs. NYG	31	+4
28	Sam Bradford (MIN)	at GB	28	0
29	Robert Griffin (CLE)	vs. SD	25	-4
30	Trevor Siemian (DEN)	at KC	29	-1
31	Jared Goff (LA)	vs. SF	32	+1
32	Bryce Petty (NYJ)	at NE	30	-2

LeSean McCoy shouldn't have much trouble with the Dolphins.Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Better Than Usual 

Todd Gurley, LA (vs. SF)

If you made it this far with Gurley, you’ve done it in spite of him, not because of him. Ironically, he could be the reason you win a fantasy championship. In the opener, Gurley carried 17 times for 47 yards and caught one of three targets for negative-five yards in a loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Since then, they’ve been the worst defense against fantasy running backs. 

Over the past four weeks, they allowed the most fantasy points to running backs thanks in part to 594 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Last week, Devonta Freeman became the 11th running back to rush for at least 100 yards against the 49ers this season. Gurley hasn’t rushed for more than 85 yards in a single game this season, but he should beat that number against the 49ers. 

Week 16 projection: 25 carries, 102 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown

Concern 

Jeremy Hill, CIN (at HOU)

Hill’s fantasy production would have been a major disappointment in Week 15 if not for a touchdown that he added to his 20 carries for 43 rushing yards and one catch for eight yards. Hill’s only two 100-yard efforts on the ground came against the Browns.

The Cincinnati Bengals are on the road for a tough matchup in Houston on Saturday night. The Texans gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in the past four weeks by limiting the opposition to just 224 rushing yards. Hill should get plenty of volume, but he’ll likely need a touchdown to finish as an RB2. 

Week 16 projection: 20 carries, 71 rushing yards; 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards

Avoid 

None of note.

Sleeper

Kenneth Farrow, SD (at CLE)

Assuming Melvin Gordon (hip/knee) doesn’t return for a meaningless game against the Browns in Week 16, Farrow should get another long look from a team that will be in evaluation mode. Last week, Farrow led the way with 75 percent of the snaps. He rushed for 39 yards on 15 carries and caught two of three targets for 14 yards.

Farrow might not be anywhere near as talented as Gordon, but this week’s matchup with the Browns could help him get close to Gordon’s typical production. The Browns allowed 440 rushing yards and four touchdowns to running backs in the past four weeks (three games), which is why they gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs during that time. It’s a good week to take a shot on Farrow.

Week 16 projection: 16 carries, 66 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown; 2 receptions, 17 receiving yards

Week 16 Running Back PPR Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	LeSean McCoy (BUF)	vs. MIA	4	+3
2	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)	vs. DET	2	0
3	Le'Veon Bell (PIT)	vs. BAL	1	-2
4	David Johnson (ARI)	at SEA	3	-1
5	DeMarco Murray (TEN)	at JAC	5	0
6	Jordan Howard (CHI)	vs. WAS	6	0
7	Latavius Murray (OAK)	vs. IND	8	+1
8	Devonta Freeman (ATL)	at CAR	7	-1
9	Carlos Hyde (SF)	at LA	10	+1
10	Todd Gurley (LA)	vs. SF	9	-1
11	LeGarrette Blount (NE)	vs. NYJ	14	+3
12	Lamar Miller (HOU)	vs. CIN	11	-1
13	Frank Gore (IND)	at OAK	19	+6
14	Jonathan Stewart (CAR)	vs. ATL	21	+7
15	Robert Kelley (WAS)	at CHI	16	+1
16	Bilal Powell (NYJ)	at NE	12	-4
17	Mark Ingram (NO)	vs. TB	17	0
18	Kenneth Farrow (SD)	at CLE	24	+6
19	Thomas Rawls (SEA)	vs. ARI	23	+4
20	Spencer Ware (KC)	vs. DEN	15	-5
21	Jeremy Hill (CIN)	at HOU	18	-3
22	Doug Martin (TB)	at NO	22	0
23	Jay Ajayi (MIA)	at BUF	13	-10
24	Ryan Mathews (PHI)	vs. NYG	26	+2
25	Tevin Coleman (ATL)	at CAR	25	0
26	Dion Lewis (NE)	vs. NYJ	20	-6
27	Kenneth Dixon (BAL)	at PIT	27	0
28	Isaiah Crowell (CLE)	vs. SD	28	0
29	Terrance West (BAL)	at PIT	29	0
30	Derrick Henry (TEN)	at JAC	38	+8
31	Rashad Jennings (NYG)	at PHI	33	+2
32	Tim Hightower (NO)	vs. TB	31	-1
33	Justin Forsett (DEN)	at KC	39	+6
34	Adrian Peterson (MIN)	at GB	34	0
35	Mike Gillislee (BUF)	vs. MIA	42	+7
36	T.J. Yeldon (JAC)	vs. TEN	30	-6
37	Paul Perkins (NYG)	at PHI	47	+10
38	Dwayne Washington (DET)	at DAL	45	+7
39	James White (NE)	vs. NYJ	41	+2
40	Chris Ivory (JAC)	vs. TEN	44	+4
41	Jerick McKinnon (MIN)	at GB	40	-1
42	Duke Johnson (CLE)	vs. SD	36	-6
43	Charles Sims (TB)	at NO	37	-6
44	Matt Forte (NYJ)	at NE	46	+2
45	Devontae Booker (DEN)	at KC	49	+4
46	Rex Burkhead (CIN)	at HOU	32	-14
47	Ronnie Hillman (SD)	at CLE	50	+3
48	Christine Michael (GB)	vs. MIN	55	+7
49	Jalen Richard (OAK)	vs. IND	56	+7
50	Chris Thompson (WAS)	at CHI	48	-2
51	Matt Asiata (MIN)	at GB	51	0
52	Robert Turbin (IND)	at OAK	52	0
53	Damien Williams (MIA)	at BUF	57	+4
54	Travaris Cadet (NO)	vs. TB	53	-1
55	Charcandrick West (KC)	vs. DEN	61	+6
56	Shaun Draughn (SF)	at LA	54	-2
57	Darren McFadden (DAL)	vs. DET	63	+6
58	Jeremy Langford (CHI)	vs. WAS	62	+4
59	Fozzy Whittaker (CAR)	vs. ATL	60	+1
60	Akeem Hunt (HOU)	vs. CIN	69	+9
61	Alfred Blue (HOU)	vs. CIN	70	+9
62	DeAndre Washington (OAK)	vs. IND	64	+2
63	Alex Collins (SEA)	vs. ARI	68	+5
64	Zach Zenner (DET)	at DAL	66	+2
65	Jacquizz Rodgers (TB)	at NO	71	+6
66	Andre Ellington (ARI)	at SEA	73	+7
67	Marcel Reece (SEA)	vs. ARI	65	-2
68	John Kuhn (NO)	vs. TB	78	+10
69	Aaron Ripkowski (GB)	vs. MIN	72	+3
70	Kerwynn Williams (ARI)	at SEA	81	+11
71	Ka'Deem Carey (CHI)	vs. WAS	79	+8
72	Mike Tolbert (CAR)	vs. ATL	77	+5
73	Darren Sproles (PHI)	vs. NYG	43	-30
74	Theo Riddick (DET)	at DAL	35	-39
75	DeAngelo Williams (PIT)	vs. BAL	76	+1

Odell Beckham Jr. will get Week 16 started on a high note in Philadelphia.Al Bello/Getty Images

Better Than Usual 

Dontrelle Inman, SD (at CLE)

If you’re looking for consistency and reliability, Inman could be a perfect WR3 with WR2 upside in Week 16. Over the last two games, Inman has 11 receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown, including five receptions for 68 yards in last week’s loss to the Oakland Raiders. He has a touchdown in three of the past four games and at least five catches in five of his past six games. He’ll have a favorable matchup with the Browns on Saturday.

Week 16 projection: 6 receptions, 81 yards

Concern

Terrelle Pryor, CLE (vs. SD)

The Browns have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league, but for the most part, Pryor’s been able to overcome those issues all year. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened with Robert Griffin under center the past two weeks. Pryor has just five receptions for 22 yards on 11 targets in those two games. 

As if playing with Griffin wasn’t bad enough for Pryor’s fantasy value, he has a torn ligament in his right middle finger but will play through it, per Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. However, he will need surgery after the season. Pryor won’t have an easy time against the Chargers. They gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the past four weeks. Nothing is working in Pryor’s favor so stay away from him if you can. 

Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 44 yards

Avoid

Jeremy Maclin, KC (vs. DEN)

Before you get too excited about Maclin’s six receptions for 82 yards in last week’s game against the Titans, consider how easy that matchup was and how much tougher he’ll have it this week against the Broncos. No team has been tougher against fantasy wide receivers in the past month. Opposing wide receivers averaged less than nine receptions and less than 82 yards per game in the past four weeks. Maclin won’t buck the trend. 

Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 33 yards

Sleeper

Sterling Shepard, NYG (at PHI)

On Thursday night, Shepard and the New York Giants head to Philadelphia for an NFC East showdown with the Eagles. Philadelphia gave up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the past four weeks, which includes seven touchdowns and 836 yards.

Shepard has touchdowns in five of his last seven games, but in just three of those games did he have at least five receptions or 50 yards. The matchup is the key for Shepard. While he’s a good sleeper, consider him a WR3 with upside. He got the Eagles for three receptions, 50 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. 

Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 49 yards, 1 touchdown

Week 16 Wide Receiver PPR Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Antonio Brown (PIT)	vs. BAL	1	0
2	Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)	at PHI	2	0
3	Mike Evans (TB)	at NO	3	0
4	Jordy Nelson (GB)	vs. MIN	6	+2
5	T.Y. Hilton (IND)	at OAK	4	-1
6	Julio Jones (ATL)	at CAR	5	-1
7	Dez Bryant (DAL)	vs. DET	7	0
8	Brandin Cooks (NO)	vs. TB	10	+2
9	Julian Edelman (NE)	vs. NYJ	8	-1
10	Michael Crabtree (OAK)	vs. IND	9	-1
11	Demaryius Thomas (DEN)	at KC	13	+2
12	Davante Adams (GB)	vs. MIN	21	+9
13	Amari Cooper (OAK)	vs. IND	11	-2
14	Doug Baldwin (SEA)	vs. ARI	17	+3
15	Michael Thomas (NO)	vs. TB	12	-3
16	Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)	at KC	20	+4
17	Golden Tate (DET)	at DAL	18	+1
18	Tyrell Williams (SD)	at CLE	15	-3
19	Dontrelle Inman (SD)	at CLE	22	+3
20	Jarvis Landry (MIA)	at BUF	16	-4
21	Ty Montgomery (GB)	vs. MIN	14	-7
22	Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)	at SEA	23	+1
23	DeSean Jackson (WAS)	at CHI	28	+5
24	Alshon Jeffery (CHI)	vs. WAS	19	-5
25	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)	vs. CIN	29	+4
26	Malcolm Mitchell (NE)	vs. NYJ	24	-2
27	Pierre Garcon (WAS)	at CHI	40	+13
28	Jamison Crowder (WAS)	at CHI	25	-3
29	Stefon Diggs (MIN)	at GB	30	+1
30	Sammy Watkins (BUF)	vs. MIA	31	+1
31	Steve Smith (BAL)	at PIT	35	+4
32	Rishard Matthews (TEN)	at JAC	26	-6
33	Tyreek Hill (KC)	vs. DEN	32	-1
34	Cameron Meredith (CHI)	vs. WAS	27	-7
35	Taylor Gabriel (ATL)	at CAR	36	+1
36	Sterling Shepard (NYG)	at PHI	44	+8
37	Robby Anderson (NYJ)	at NE	34	-3
38	Tyler Lockett (SEA)	vs. ARI	42	+4
39	Ted Ginn (CAR)	vs. ATL	48	+9
40	Kenny Britt (LA)	vs. SF	37	-3
41	Willie Snead (NO)	vs. TB	33	-8
42	Mike Wallace (BAL)	at PIT	41	-1
43	Jordan Matthews (PHI)	vs. NYG	38	-5
44	Marqise Lee (JAC)	vs. TEN	47	+3
45	Randall Cobb (GB)	vs. MIN	53	+8
46	Allen Robinson (JAC)	vs. TEN	43	-3
47	Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)	vs. ATL	45	-2
48	Brandon Marshall (NYJ)	at NE	46	-2
49	Terrelle Pryor (CLE)	vs. SD	49	0
50	J.J. Nelson (ARI)	at SEA	54	+4
51	Brandon LaFell (CIN)	at HOU	58	+7
52	Tyler Boyd (CIN)	at HOU	64	+12
53	Adam Thielen (MIN)	at GB	56	+3
54	Chris Hogan (NE)	vs. NYJ	50	-4
55	DeVante Parker (MIA)	at BUF	55	0
56	Adam Humphries (TB)	at NO	65	+9
57	Jeremy Maclin (KC)	vs. DEN	51	-6
58	Corey Coleman (CLE)	vs. SD	57	-1
59	Marvin Jones (DET)	at DAL	59	0
60	Cole Beasley (DAL)	vs. DET	60	0
61	Anquan Boldin (DET)	at DAL	63	+2
62	Kenny Stills (MIA)	at BUF	61	-1
63	John Brown (ARI)	at SEA	70	+7
64	Eli Rogers (PIT)	vs. BAL	62	-2
65	Mohamed Sanu (ATL)	at CAR	69	+4
66	Tavon Austin (LA)	vs. SF	67	+1
67	Will Fuller V (HOU)	vs. CIN	74	+7
68	Phillip Dorsett (IND)	at OAK	73	+5
69	Travis Benjamin (SD)	at CLE	68	-1
70	Quincy Enunwa (NYJ)	at NE	71	+1
71	Breshad Perriman (BAL)	at PIT	77	+6
72	Jeremy Kerley (SF)	at LA	66	-6
73	Robert Woods (BUF)	vs. MIA	72	-1
74	Josh Bellamy (CHI)	vs. WAS	83	+9
75	Michael Floyd (NE)	vs. NYJ	85	+10
76	Kendall Wright (TEN)	at JAC	84	+8
77	Tajae Sharpe (TEN)	at JAC	79	+2
78	Seth Roberts (OAK)	vs. IND	75	-3
79	Deonte Thompson (CHI)	vs. WAS	82	+3
80	Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI)	vs. NYG	86	+6
81	Sammie Coates (PIT)	vs. BAL	91	+10
82	Terrance Williams (DAL)	vs. DET	89	+7
83	Russell Shepard (TB)	at NO	92	+9
84	Brian Quick (LA)	vs. SF	81	-3
85	Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN)	at GB	80	-5
86	Nelson Agholor (PHI)	vs. NYG	93	+7
87	Donte Moncrief (IND)	at OAK	52	-35
88	A.J. Green (CIN)	at HOU	39	-49

Greg Olsen is getting back on track at the right time.Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Better than Usual 

Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. NYG)

The Eagles might be out of playoff contention, but that hasn’t slowed down Ertz. He’s the top tight end in PPR formats over the past month thanks to 28 receptions, 307 yards and a touchdown on 42 targets. Last week, he posted six receptions for 80 yards on eight targets in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Ertz has at least eight targets in four of his past five games.

One of Ertz’s best games of the season came against the Giants in Week 9, when he got them for eight receptions for 97 yards on eight targets. They come into this rematch allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends in the past four weeks. Considering the major issues for the Eagles offensive line, Ertz could act as a safety valve for Carson Wentz if he’s under constant pressure. 

Week 16 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards

Concern 

Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. ARI)

Graham has been frustratingly quiet in the past two games. He has two receptions for 47 yards on six targets against the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams. Snapping out of that funk won’t be easy with a tough matchup against the Cardinals in Week 16.

Arizona held Graham to five receptions and 53 yards on 10 targets in Week 7. Over the past four weeks, it has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends by limiting them to 14 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. While Arizona’s defense has shown cracks in recent weeks, Graham is still tough to consider a top-five option.

Week 16 projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards

Avoid

None of note.

Sleeper

Charles Clay, BUF (vs. MIA)

Clay has 10 receptions for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets in the past two games, which makes him the Buffalo Bills' best fantasy receiver during that time. This week, he faces a Miami Dolphins defense that has given up at least six receptions to tight ends in five of the past six games. Miami has also given up the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the past four weeks.

Week 16 projection: 5 receptions, 51 yards

Week 16 Tight End PPR Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Greg Olsen (CAR)	vs. ATL	1	0
2	Travis Kelce (KC)	vs. DEN	2	0
3	Delanie Walker (TEN)	at JAC	3	0
4	Cameron Brate (TB)	at NO	4	0
5	Tyler Eifert (CIN)	at HOU	5	0
6	Kyle Rudolph (MIN)	at GB	6	0
7	Zach Ertz (PHI)	vs. NYG	7	0
8	Jimmy Graham (SEA)	vs. ARI	8	0
9	Antonio Gates (SD)	at CLE	11	+2
10	Jordan Reed (WAS)	at CHI	9	-1
11	Eric Ebron (DET)	at DAL	14	+3
12	Martellus Bennett (NE)	vs. NYJ	10	-2
13	Charles Clay (BUF)	vs. MIA	18	+5
14	Hunter Henry (SD)	at CLE	13	-1
15	Ryan Griffin (HOU)	vs. CIN	21	+6
16	Jason Witten (DAL)	vs. DET	12	-4
17	Jared Cook (GB)	vs. MIN	20	+3
18	Coby Fleener (NO)	vs. TB	19	+1
19	Dion Sims (MIA)	at BUF	25	+6
20	Jermaine Gresham (ARI)	at SEA	24	+4
21	Vernon Davis (WAS)	at CHI	23	+2
22	Jack Doyle (IND)	at OAK	22	0
23	Gary Barnidge (CLE)	vs. SD	30	+7
24	Dennis Pitta (BAL)	at PIT	29	+5
25	Dwayne Allen (IND)	at OAK	28	+3
26	Trey Burton (PHI)	vs. NYG	31	+5
27	Daniel Brown (CHI)	vs. WAS	15	-12
28	Garrett Celek (SF)	at LA	26	-2
29	Austin Hooper (ATL)	at CAR	33	+4
30	Lance Kendricks (LA)	vs. SF	27	-3
31	A.J. Derby (DEN)	at KC	32	+1
32	Ladarius Green (PIT)	vs. BAL	17	-15
33	C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU)	vs. CIN	16	-17

Von Miller and the Broncos will make life difficult for the Chiefs.Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

Best Options Based on Matchups

San Diego Chargers (at CLE)

Nearly every team that has faced the Browns has appeared in this section each week and that continues with the Chargers. In the past four weeks (three games), the Browns allowed the second-most points to fantasy defenses. In their past four games, they scored just 45 points and gave up 20 sacks. The Chargers have a good enough unit to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Week 16 projection: 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 13 to 16 points allowed

Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN)

The resurgence of the Packers offense overshadowed how much better their defense has played coming down the stretch. That’s translated to the third-most fantasy points in the past four weeks thanks to 10 sacks, nine interceptions, three fumble recoveries and just 63 points allowed.

Green Bay’s improved defense should take advantage of a struggling Minnesota Vikings offense. Over the last month, Minnesota gave up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses because of eight sacks, two interceptions, four lost fumbles and just 59 points scored by its offense. This matchup sets up well for the Packers defense to be a strong fantasy play.

Week 16 projection: 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 14 to 17 points allowed

Week 16 Defense Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Seattle Seahawks (SEA)	vs. ARI	2	+1
2	New England Patriots (NE)	vs. NYJ	1	-1
3	Denver Broncos (DEN)	at KC	4	+1
4	New York Giants (NYG)	at PHI	10	+6
5	San Diego Chargers (SD)	at CLE	6	+1
6	Kansas City Chiefs (KC)	vs. DEN	3	-3
7	Green Bay Packers (GB)	vs. MIN	5	-2
8	Buffalo Bills (BUF)	vs. MIA	7	-1
9	Houston Texans (HOU)	vs. CIN	9	0
10	Tennessee Titans (TEN)	at JAC	8	-2
11	Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT)	vs. BAL	11	0
12	Baltimore Ravens (BAL)	at PIT	15	+3
13	Cincinnati Bengals (CIN)	at HOU	12	-1
14	Arizona Cardinals (ARI)	at SEA	14	0
15	Oakland Raiders (OAK)	vs. IND	17	+2
16	Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)	vs. NYG	16	0
17	Washington Redskins (WAS)	at CHI	18	+1
18	Miami Dolphins (MIA)	at BUF	22	+4
19	Atlanta Falcons (ATL)	at CAR	19	0
20	San Francisco 49ers (SF)	at LA	26	+6

Sebastian Janikowski looks to stay perfect in December.Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Best Option Widely Available on the Waiver Wire 

Sebastian Janikowski, OAK

The Raiders give Janikowski plenty of opportunities. In the past five games, he hasn’t let them down once. Coming into Week 16, he’s made 13 consecutive field goals over the last five games and 40 straight extra points dating back to last season. He has racked up at least nine points five times in the past six games. He should have another busy game when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Raiders on Saturday afternoon.

Week 16 Kicker Rankings

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Justin Tucker (BAL)	at PIT	1	0
2	Stephen Gostkowski (NE)	vs. NYJ	2	0
3	Matt Bryant (ATL)	at CAR	3	0
4	Dan Bailey (DAL)	vs. DET	4	0
5	Stephen Hauschka (SEA)	vs. ARI	5	0
6	Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)	vs. IND	6	0
7	Adam Vinatieri (IND)	at OAK	7	0
8	Josh Lambo (SD)	at CLE	11	+3
9	Wil Lutz (NO)	vs. TB	10	+1
10	Dustin Hopkins (WAS)	at CHI	8	-2
11	Cairo Santos (KC)	vs. DEN	9	-2
12	Graham Gano (CAR)	vs. ATL	14	+2
13	Matt Prater (DET)	at DAL	12	-1
14	Mason Crosby (GB)	vs. MIN	13	-1
15	Brandon McManus (DEN)	at KC	15	0
16	Nick Novak (HOU)	vs. CIN	16	0
17	Roberto Aguayo (TB)	at NO	18	+1
18	Chris Boswell (PIT)	vs. BAL	21	+3
19	Robbie Gould (NYG)	at PHI	25	+6
20	Caleb Sturgis (PHI)	vs. NYG	17	-3

    

Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus.

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