Fantasy Football Week 16: Matt Camp's Week 16 Big Board

Matt Camp@TheMattCampFantasy Football Lead WriterDecember 21, 2016

Fantasy Football Week 16: Matt Camp's Week 16 Big Board

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    Was this the last big moment of the fantasy season for Ezekiel Elliott?
    Was this the last big moment of the fantasy season for Ezekiel Elliott?Tom Pennington/Getty Images

    The reason almost all fantasy football championships are played in Week 16 instead of Week 17 is to avoid any playing-time issues related to teams that already clinched the playoffs. When you get this late in the NFL season, those concerns will pop up, but there’s a good chance nothing like that will happen this week. 

    By the time the Dallas Cowboys kick off on Monday night, they’ll know if they already clinched home-field advantage or need a win over the Detroit Lions to get it. If the New York Giants tie or lose to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, the Cowboys lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That could raise questions about how many minutes key players would see on the field in a meaningless game. 

    If the Cowboys clinch the top seed before they take the field in Week 16, would it make sense to sit starters? Assuming they’d do the same in Week 17, that would mean three weeks off before they host a playoff game in the divisional round. While they’d like to avoid injuries, that length of inactivity could also be risky. 

    If Dallas has nothing to play for in Week 16, my guess is that they’d still stick with starters like Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant for most of their normal reps against the Lions. Maybe Darren McFadden gets mixed in a little more, since he just returned to action in Week 15, but I’d still feel confident using Elliott for fantasy. 

    Luckily, that’s the biggest concern as it pertains to playing-time issues for potential playoff teams. Hopefully, nothing else gets in your way on the road to a fantasy championship. 

    Here’s my first look at the points-per-reception (PPR) rankings for Week 16. These will change throughout the week and up to Saturday’s action as we get more information about injuries and limitations, so make sure to bookmark this page.

Top 100

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    Expect the San Diego Chargers to face little resistance from the Cleveland Browns.
    Expect the San Diego Chargers to face little resistance from the Cleveland Browns.Harry How/Getty Images

    I present my top 100 players (minus quarterbacks) for the week as a way to help determine your flex spots. You may favor a certain position or player over another based on his role and/or your scoring rules.

    As an additional tiebreaker, here are the teams I like as a whole this week based on their matchups:

    • New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles)
    • San Diego Chargers (at Cleveland Browns)
    • New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)
    • Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

        

    Week 16 Top 100 PPR Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupPosECR™vs. ECR
    1Antonio Brown (PIT)vs. BALWR110
    2Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)at PHIWR220
    3LeSean McCoy (BUF)vs. MIARB18+5
    4Mike Evans (TB)at NOWR35+1
    5Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)vs. DETRB24-1
    6Jordy Nelson (GB)vs. MINWR410+4
    7T.Y. Hilton (IND)at OAKWR56-1
    8Le'Veon Bell (PIT)vs. BALRB33-5
    9Julio Jones (ATL)at CARWR67-2
    10David Johnson (ARI)at SEARB49-1
    11Dez Bryant (DAL)vs. DETWR7110
    12Brandin Cooks (NO)vs. TBWR816+4
    13DeMarco Murray (TEN)at JACRB512-1
    14Julian Edelman (NE)vs. NYJWR913-1
    15Jordan Howard (CHI)vs. WASRB6150
    16Michael Crabtree (OAK)vs. INDWR1014-2
    17Latavius Murray (OAK)vs. INDRB718+1
    18Demaryius Thomas (DEN)at KCWR1121+3
    19Devonta Freeman (ATL)at CARRB817-2
    20Davante Adams (GB)vs. MINWR1232+12
    21Carlos Hyde (SF)at LARB928+7
    22Amari Cooper (OAK)vs. INDWR1319-3
    23Doug Baldwin (SEA)vs. ARIWR1427+4
    24Michael Thomas (NO)vs. TBWR1520-4
    25Greg Olsen (CAR)vs. ATLTE1250
    26Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)at KCWR1629+3
    27Todd Gurley (LA)vs. SFRB1023-4
    28Golden Tate (DET)at DALWR1730+2
    29Tyrell Williams (SD)at CLEWR1824-5
    30LeGarrette Blount (NE)vs. NYJRB1140+10
    31Travis Kelce (KC)vs. DENTE234+3
    32Dontrelle Inman (SD)at CLEWR1935+3
    33Jarvis Landry (MIA)at BUFWR2026-7
    34Ty Montgomery (GB)vs. MINWR2122-12
    35Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)at SEAWR2237+2
    36DeSean Jackson (WAS)at CHIWR2346+10
    37Lamar Miller (HOU)vs. CINRB1233-4
    38Frank Gore (IND)at OAKRB1350+12
    39Alshon Jeffery (CHI)vs. WASWR2431-8
    40Delanie Walker (TEN)at JACTE339-1
    41DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)vs. CINWR2548+7
    42Malcolm Mitchell (NE)vs. NYJWR2638-4
    43Jonathan Stewart (CAR)vs. ATLRB1458+15
    44Pierre Garcon (WAS)at CHIWR2774+30
    45Jamison Crowder (WAS)at CHIWR2843-2
    46Robert Kelley (WAS)at CHIRB1549+3
    47Bilal Powell (NYJ)at NERB1636-11
    48Cameron Brate (TB)at NOTE447-1
    49Stefon Diggs (MIN)at GBWR2952+3
    50Sammy Watkins (BUF)vs. MIAWR3056+6
    51Mark Ingram (NO)vs. TBRB17510
    52Steve Smith (BAL)at PITWR3161+9
    53Kenneth Farrow (SD)at CLERB1863+10
    54Rishard Matthews (TEN)at JACWR3244-10
    55Thomas Rawls (SEA)vs. ARIRB1965+10
    56Tyler Eifert (CIN)at HOUTE554-2
    57Spencer Ware (KC)vs. DENRB2042-15
    58Tyreek Hill (KC)vs. DENWR3357-1
    59Jeremy Hill (CIN)at HOURB2153-6
    60Cameron Meredith (CHI)vs. WASWR3445-15
    61Taylor Gabriel (ATL)at CARWR3564+3
    62Sterling Shepard (NYG)at PHIWR3680+18
    63Doug Martin (TB)at NORB2262-1
    64Jay Ajayi (MIA)at BUFRB2341-23
    65Kyle Rudolph (MIN)at GBTE670+5
    66Robby Anderson (NYJ)at NEWR3760-6
    67Ryan Mathews (PHI)vs. NYGRB2469+2
    68Tyler Lockett (SEA)vs. ARIWR3876+8
    69Zach Ertz (PHI)vs. NYGTE771+2
    70Tevin Coleman (ATL)at CARRB2567-3
    71Ted Ginn (CAR)vs. ATLWR3987+16
    72Dion Lewis (NE)vs. NYJRB2655-17
    73Kenny Britt (LA)vs. SFWR4066-7
    74Kenneth Dixon (BAL)at PITRB2773-1
    75Isaiah Crowell (CLE)vs. SDRB2877+2
    76Jimmy Graham (SEA)vs. ARITE872-4
    77Willie Snead (NO)vs. TBWR4159-18
    78Terrance West (BAL)at PITRB2981+3
    79Mike Wallace (BAL)at PITWR4275-4
    80Jordan Matthews (PHI)vs. NYGWR4368-12
    81Antonio Gates (SD)at CLETE991+10
    82Marqise Lee (JAC)vs. TENWR4486+4
    83Jordan Reed (WAS)at CHITE1082-1
    84Randall Cobb (GB)vs. MINWR45104+20
    85Allen Robinson (JAC)vs. TENWR4679-6
    86Derrick Henry (TEN)at JACRB30110+24
    87Rashad Jennings (NYG)at PHIRB3193+6
    88Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)vs. ATLWR4783-5
    89Tim Hightower (NO)vs. TBRB3290+1
    90Eric Ebron (DET)at DALTE1197+7
    91Justin Forsett (DEN)at KCRB33107+16
    92Brandon Marshall (NYJ)at NEWR4885-7
    93Terrelle Pryor (CLE)vs. SDWR4988-5
    94J.J. Nelson (ARI)at SEAWR50103+9
    95Martellus Bennett (NE)vs. NYJTE1284-11
    96Adrian Peterson (MIN)at GBRB34100+4
    97Brandon LaFell (CIN)at HOUWR51112+15
    98Mike Gillislee (BUF)vs. MIARB35116+18
    99Charles Clay (BUF)vs. MIATE13125+26
    100Tyler Boyd (CIN)at HOUWR52118+18

          

    2016 fantasy football rankings powered by FantasyPros

    ECR—Expert Consensus Ranking.

Quarterbacks

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    Tom Brady should bounce back in a rematch with the Jets.
    Tom Brady should bounce back in a rematch with the Jets.Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

    Better Than Usual 

    Philip Rivers, SD (at CLE)

    Rivers hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in any of his past four games but has nine touchdowns over that span, so his fantasy production has been OK. Even though the Chargers have been eliminated from the playoffs, Rivers won’t limp to the finish line, especially with a prime matchup against the Browns in Week 16. Over the past four weeks, the Browns allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

    Week 16 projection: 285 to 290 yards, 2 touchdowns

       

    Concern

    Marcus Mariota, TEN (at JAC)

    Mariota was a great fantasy asset for about two months until the Week 13 bye. Since then, he’s faced the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. While both of those games resulted in wins for the Tennessee Titans, Mariota has just 329 passing yards, no touchdowns and 36 rushing yards in the past two weeks.

    Even though the Jacksonville Jaguars may not pose the same threat as the Broncos or Chiefs, they’ve been good enough to hold quarterbacks to the eighth-fewest fantasy points in the past four weeks. Mariota is merely a mid-range option for Week 16. 

    Week 16 projection: 235 to 245 passing yards, 1 touchdown; 25 rushing yards

        

    Avoid

    Carson Palmer, ARI (at SEA)

    Playing the New Orleans Saints tends to pad the fantasy stats for most quarterbacks and Palmer wasn’t an exception in Week 15. He completed 28 of 40 pass attempts for 318 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’ll get much tougher competition when he faces the Seahawks in Seattle on Saturday afternoon. 

    In the past four weeks, quarterbacks posted just 815 yards and six touchdowns against the Seahawks. Palmer threw for 342 yards against them back in Week 7, but he needed 49 attempts to get there and didn’t have a touchdown while taking four sacks. Look elsewhere for a quarterback this week. 

    Week 16 projection: 220 to 230 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions

       

    Sleeper

    Matt Barkley, CHI (vs. WAS)

    Barkley’s volume makes him a viable option in Week 16 against the Washington Redskins. He’s averaging more than 270 yards and nearly 37 attempts per game over his starts in the past four weeks with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Only five other quarterbacks have more yards during that span.

    This week, Barkley faces a Redskins defense that gave up 1,109 yards and seven touchdowns in their past four games, which is why they rank fifth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in the past month. If you’re struggling for a quarterback, Barkley isn’t a bad desperation play.

    Week 16 projection: 260 to 270 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

        

    Week 16 Quarterback Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupECR™vs. ECR
    1Tom Brady (NE)vs. NYJ10
    2Drew Brees (NO)vs. TB20
    3Aaron Rodgers (GB)vs. MIN4+1
    4Matt Ryan (ATL)at CAR5+1
    5Andrew Luck (IND)at OAK3-2
    6Kirk Cousins (WAS)at CHI60
    7Philip Rivers (SD)at CLE8+1
    8Derek Carr (OAK)vs. IND9+1
    9Russell Wilson (SEA)vs. ARI11+2
    10Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)vs. BAL7-3
    11Cam Newton (CAR)vs. ATL10-1
    12Jameis Winston (TB)at NO120
    13Dak Prescott (DAL)vs. DET14+1
    14Eli Manning (NYG)at PHI16+2
    15Matthew Stafford (DET)at DAL18+3
    16Matt Barkley (CHI)vs. WAS20+4
    17Marcus Mariota (TEN)at JAC13-4
    18Tyrod Taylor (BUF)vs. MIA15-3
    19Colin Kaepernick (SF)at LA17-2
    20Joe Flacco (BAL)at PIT19-1
    21Matt Moore (MIA)at BUF210
    22Andy Dalton (CIN)at HOU23+1
    23Carson Palmer (ARI)at SEA22-1
    24Tom Savage (HOU)vs. CIN27+3
    25Blake Bortles (JAC)vs. TEN24-1
    26Alex Smith (KC)vs. DEN260
    27Carson Wentz (PHI)vs. NYG31+4
    28Sam Bradford (MIN)at GB280
    29Robert Griffin (CLE)vs. SD25-4
    30Trevor Siemian (DEN)at KC29-1
    31Jared Goff (LA)vs. SF32+1
    32Bryce Petty (NYJ)at NE30-2

Running Backs

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    LeSean McCoy shouldn't have much trouble with the Dolphins.
    LeSean McCoy shouldn't have much trouble with the Dolphins.Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

    Better Than Usual 

    Todd Gurley, LA (vs. SF)

    If you made it this far with Gurley, you’ve done it in spite of him, not because of him. Ironically, he could be the reason you win a fantasy championship. In the opener, Gurley carried 17 times for 47 yards and caught one of three targets for negative-five yards in a loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Since then, they’ve been the worst defense against fantasy running backs. 

    Over the past four weeks, they allowed the most fantasy points to running backs thanks in part to 594 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Last week, Devonta Freeman became the 11th running back to rush for at least 100 yards against the 49ers this season. Gurley hasn’t rushed for more than 85 yards in a single game this season, but he should beat that number against the 49ers. 

    Week 16 projection: 25 carries, 102 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown

           

    Concern 

    Jeremy Hill, CIN (at HOU)

    Hill’s fantasy production would have been a major disappointment in Week 15 if not for a touchdown that he added to his 20 carries for 43 rushing yards and one catch for eight yards. Hill’s only two 100-yard efforts on the ground came against the Browns.

    The Cincinnati Bengals are on the road for a tough matchup in Houston on Saturday night. The Texans gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in the past four weeks by limiting the opposition to just 224 rushing yards. Hill should get plenty of volume, but he’ll likely need a touchdown to finish as an RB2. 

    Week 16 projection: 20 carries, 71 rushing yards; 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards

        

    Avoid 

    None of note.

        

    Sleeper

    Kenneth Farrow, SD (at CLE)

    Assuming Melvin Gordon (hip/knee) doesn’t return for a meaningless game against the Browns in Week 16, Farrow should get another long look from a team that will be in evaluation mode. Last week, Farrow led the way with 75 percent of the snaps. He rushed for 39 yards on 15 carries and caught two of three targets for 14 yards.

    Farrow might not be anywhere near as talented as Gordon, but this week’s matchup with the Browns could help him get close to Gordon’s typical production. The Browns allowed 440 rushing yards and four touchdowns to running backs in the past four weeks (three games), which is why they gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs during that time. It’s a good week to take a shot on Farrow.

    Week 16 projection: 16 carries, 66 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown; 2 receptions, 17 receiving yards

        

    Week 16 Running Back PPR Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupECR™vs. ECR
    1LeSean McCoy (BUF)vs. MIA4+3
    2Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)vs. DET20
    3Le'Veon Bell (PIT)vs. BAL1-2
    4David Johnson (ARI)at SEA3-1
    5DeMarco Murray (TEN)at JAC50
    6Jordan Howard (CHI)vs. WAS60
    7Latavius Murray (OAK)vs. IND8+1
    8Devonta Freeman (ATL)at CAR7-1
    9Carlos Hyde (SF)at LA10+1
    10Todd Gurley (LA)vs. SF9-1
    11LeGarrette Blount (NE)vs. NYJ14+3
    12Lamar Miller (HOU)vs. CIN11-1
    13Frank Gore (IND)at OAK19+6
    14Jonathan Stewart (CAR)vs. ATL21+7
    15Robert Kelley (WAS)at CHI16+1
    16Bilal Powell (NYJ)at NE12-4
    17Mark Ingram (NO)vs. TB170
    18Kenneth Farrow (SD)at CLE24+6
    19Thomas Rawls (SEA)vs. ARI23+4
    20Spencer Ware (KC)vs. DEN15-5
    21Jeremy Hill (CIN)at HOU18-3
    22Doug Martin (TB)at NO220
    23Jay Ajayi (MIA)at BUF13-10
    24Ryan Mathews (PHI)vs. NYG26+2
    25Tevin Coleman (ATL)at CAR250
    26Dion Lewis (NE)vs. NYJ20-6
    27Kenneth Dixon (BAL)at PIT270
    28Isaiah Crowell (CLE)vs. SD280
    29Terrance West (BAL)at PIT290
    30Derrick Henry (TEN)at JAC38+8
    31Rashad Jennings (NYG)at PHI33+2
    32Tim Hightower (NO)vs. TB31-1
    33Justin Forsett (DEN)at KC39+6
    34Adrian Peterson (MIN)at GB340
    35Mike Gillislee (BUF)vs. MIA42+7
    36T.J. Yeldon (JAC)vs. TEN30-6
    37Paul Perkins (NYG)at PHI47+10
    38Dwayne Washington (DET)at DAL45+7
    39James White (NE)vs. NYJ41+2
    40Chris Ivory (JAC)vs. TEN44+4
    41Jerick McKinnon (MIN)at GB40-1
    42Duke Johnson (CLE)vs. SD36-6
    43Charles Sims (TB)at NO37-6
    44Matt Forte (NYJ)at NE46+2
    45Devontae Booker (DEN)at KC49+4
    46Rex Burkhead (CIN)at HOU32-14
    47Ronnie Hillman (SD)at CLE50+3
    48Christine Michael (GB)vs. MIN55+7
    49Jalen Richard (OAK)vs. IND56+7
    50Chris Thompson (WAS)at CHI48-2
    51Matt Asiata (MIN)at GB510
    52Robert Turbin (IND)at OAK520
    53Damien Williams (MIA)at BUF57+4
    54Travaris Cadet (NO)vs. TB53-1
    55Charcandrick West (KC)vs. DEN61+6
    56Shaun Draughn (SF)at LA54-2
    57Darren McFadden (DAL)vs. DET63+6
    58Jeremy Langford (CHI)vs. WAS62+4
    59Fozzy Whittaker (CAR)vs. ATL60+1
    60Akeem Hunt (HOU)vs. CIN69+9
    61Alfred Blue (HOU)vs. CIN70+9
    62DeAndre Washington (OAK)vs. IND64+2
    63Alex Collins (SEA)vs. ARI68+5
    64Zach Zenner (DET)at DAL66+2
    65Jacquizz Rodgers (TB)at NO71+6
    66Andre Ellington (ARI)at SEA73+7
    67Marcel Reece (SEA)vs. ARI65-2
    68John Kuhn (NO)vs. TB78+10
    69Aaron Ripkowski (GB)vs. MIN72+3
    70Kerwynn Williams (ARI)at SEA81+11
    71Ka'Deem Carey (CHI)vs. WAS79+8
    72Mike Tolbert (CAR)vs. ATL77+5
    73Darren Sproles (PHI)vs. NYG43-30
    74Theo Riddick (DET)at DAL35-39
    75DeAngelo Williams (PIT)vs. BAL76+1

Wide Receivers

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    Odell Beckham Jr. will get Week 16 started on a high note in Philadelphia.
    Odell Beckham Jr. will get Week 16 started on a high note in Philadelphia.Al Bello/Getty Images

    Better Than Usual 

    Dontrelle Inman, SD (at CLE)

    If you’re looking for consistency and reliability, Inman could be a perfect WR3 with WR2 upside in Week 16. Over the last two games, Inman has 11 receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown, including five receptions for 68 yards in last week’s loss to the Oakland Raiders. He has a touchdown in three of the past four games and at least five catches in five of his past six games. He’ll have a favorable matchup with the Browns on Saturday.

    Week 16 projection: 6 receptions, 81 yards

        

    Concern

    Terrelle Pryor, CLE (vs. SD)

    The Browns have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league, but for the most part, Pryor’s been able to overcome those issues all year. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened with Robert Griffin under center the past two weeks. Pryor has just five receptions for 22 yards on 11 targets in those two games. 

    As if playing with Griffin wasn’t bad enough for Pryor’s fantasy value, he has a torn ligament in his right middle finger but will play through it, per Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. However, he will need surgery after the season. Pryor won’t have an easy time against the Chargers. They gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the past four weeks. Nothing is working in Pryor’s favor so stay away from him if you can. 

    Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 44 yards

        

    Avoid

    Jeremy Maclin, KC (vs. DEN)

    Before you get too excited about Maclin’s six receptions for 82 yards in last week’s game against the Titans, consider how easy that matchup was and how much tougher he’ll have it this week against the Broncos. No team has been tougher against fantasy wide receivers in the past month. Opposing wide receivers averaged less than nine receptions and less than 82 yards per game in the past four weeks. Maclin won’t buck the trend. 

    Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 33 yards

        

    Sleeper

    Sterling Shepard, NYG (at PHI)

    On Thursday night, Shepard and the New York Giants head to Philadelphia for an NFC East showdown with the Eagles. Philadelphia gave up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the past four weeks, which includes seven touchdowns and 836 yards.

    Shepard has touchdowns in five of his last seven games, but in just three of those games did he have at least five receptions or 50 yards. The matchup is the key for Shepard. While he’s a good sleeper, consider him a WR3 with upside. He got the Eagles for three receptions, 50 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. 

    Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 49 yards, 1 touchdown

        

    Week 16 Wide Receiver PPR Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupECR™vs. ECR
    1Antonio Brown (PIT)vs. BAL10
    2Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)at PHI20
    3Mike Evans (TB)at NO30
    4Jordy Nelson (GB)vs. MIN6+2
    5T.Y. Hilton (IND)at OAK4-1
    6Julio Jones (ATL)at CAR5-1
    7Dez Bryant (DAL)vs. DET70
    8Brandin Cooks (NO)vs. TB10+2
    9Julian Edelman (NE)vs. NYJ8-1
    10Michael Crabtree (OAK)vs. IND9-1
    11Demaryius Thomas (DEN)at KC13+2
    12Davante Adams (GB)vs. MIN21+9
    13Amari Cooper (OAK)vs. IND11-2
    14Doug Baldwin (SEA)vs. ARI17+3
    15Michael Thomas (NO)vs. TB12-3
    16Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)at KC20+4
    17Golden Tate (DET)at DAL18+1
    18Tyrell Williams (SD)at CLE15-3
    19Dontrelle Inman (SD)at CLE22+3
    20Jarvis Landry (MIA)at BUF16-4
    21Ty Montgomery (GB)vs. MIN14-7
    22Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)at SEA23+1
    23DeSean Jackson (WAS)at CHI28+5
    24Alshon Jeffery (CHI)vs. WAS19-5
    25DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)vs. CIN29+4
    26Malcolm Mitchell (NE)vs. NYJ24-2
    27Pierre Garcon (WAS)at CHI40+13
    28Jamison Crowder (WAS)at CHI25-3
    29Stefon Diggs (MIN)at GB30+1
    30Sammy Watkins (BUF)vs. MIA31+1
    31Steve Smith (BAL)at PIT35+4
    32Rishard Matthews (TEN)at JAC26-6
    33Tyreek Hill (KC)vs. DEN32-1
    34Cameron Meredith (CHI)vs. WAS27-7
    35Taylor Gabriel (ATL)at CAR36+1
    36Sterling Shepard (NYG)at PHI44+8
    37Robby Anderson (NYJ)at NE34-3
    38Tyler Lockett (SEA)vs. ARI42+4
    39Ted Ginn (CAR)vs. ATL48+9
    40Kenny Britt (LA)vs. SF37-3
    41Willie Snead (NO)vs. TB33-8
    42Mike Wallace (BAL)at PIT41-1
    43Jordan Matthews (PHI)vs. NYG38-5
    44Marqise Lee (JAC)vs. TEN47+3
    45Randall Cobb (GB)vs. MIN53+8
    46Allen Robinson (JAC)vs. TEN43-3
    47Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)vs. ATL45-2
    48Brandon Marshall (NYJ)at NE46-2
    49Terrelle Pryor (CLE)vs. SD490
    50J.J. Nelson (ARI)at SEA54+4
    51Brandon LaFell (CIN)at HOU58+7
    52Tyler Boyd (CIN)at HOU64+12
    53Adam Thielen (MIN)at GB56+3
    54Chris Hogan (NE)vs. NYJ50-4
    55DeVante Parker (MIA)at BUF550
    56Adam Humphries (TB)at NO65+9
    57Jeremy Maclin (KC)vs. DEN51-6
    58Corey Coleman (CLE)vs. SD57-1
    59Marvin Jones (DET)at DAL590
    60Cole Beasley (DAL)vs. DET600
    61Anquan Boldin (DET)at DAL63+2
    62Kenny Stills (MIA)at BUF61-1
    63John Brown (ARI)at SEA70+7
    64Eli Rogers (PIT)vs. BAL62-2
    65Mohamed Sanu (ATL)at CAR69+4
    66Tavon Austin (LA)vs. SF67+1
    67Will Fuller V (HOU)vs. CIN74+7
    68Phillip Dorsett (IND)at OAK73+5
    69Travis Benjamin (SD)at CLE68-1
    70Quincy Enunwa (NYJ)at NE71+1
    71Breshad Perriman (BAL)at PIT77+6
    72Jeremy Kerley (SF)at LA66-6
    73Robert Woods (BUF)vs. MIA72-1
    74Josh Bellamy (CHI)vs. WAS83+9
    75Michael Floyd (NE)vs. NYJ85+10
    76Kendall Wright (TEN)at JAC84+8
    77Tajae Sharpe (TEN)at JAC79+2
    78Seth Roberts (OAK)vs. IND75-3
    79Deonte Thompson (CHI)vs. WAS82+3
    80Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI)vs. NYG86+6
    81Sammie Coates (PIT)vs. BAL91+10
    82Terrance Williams (DAL)vs. DET89+7
    83Russell Shepard (TB)at NO92+9
    84Brian Quick (LA)vs. SF81-3
    85Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN)at GB80-5
    86Nelson Agholor (PHI)vs. NYG93+7
    87Donte Moncrief (IND)at OAK52-35
    88A.J. Green (CIN)at HOU39-49

Tight Ends

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    Greg Olsen is getting back on track at the right time.
    Greg Olsen is getting back on track at the right time.Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

    Better than Usual 

    Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. NYG)

    The Eagles might be out of playoff contention, but that hasn’t slowed down Ertz. He’s the top tight end in PPR formats over the past month thanks to 28 receptions, 307 yards and a touchdown on 42 targets. Last week, he posted six receptions for 80 yards on eight targets in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Ertz has at least eight targets in four of his past five games.

    One of Ertz’s best games of the season came against the Giants in Week 9, when he got them for eight receptions for 97 yards on eight targets. They come into this rematch allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends in the past four weeks. Considering the major issues for the Eagles offensive line, Ertz could act as a safety valve for Carson Wentz if he’s under constant pressure. 

    Week 16 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards

        

    Concern 

    Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. ARI)

    Graham has been frustratingly quiet in the past two games. He has two receptions for 47 yards on six targets against the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams. Snapping out of that funk won’t be easy with a tough matchup against the Cardinals in Week 16.

    Arizona held Graham to five receptions and 53 yards on 10 targets in Week 7. Over the past four weeks, it has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends by limiting them to 14 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. While Arizona’s defense has shown cracks in recent weeks, Graham is still tough to consider a top-five option.

    Week 16 projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards

        

    Avoid

    None of note.

        

    Sleeper

    Charles Clay, BUF (vs. MIA)

    Clay has 10 receptions for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets in the past two games, which makes him the Buffalo Bills' best fantasy receiver during that time. This week, he faces a Miami Dolphins defense that has given up at least six receptions to tight ends in five of the past six games. Miami has also given up the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the past four weeks.

    Week 16 projection: 5 receptions, 51 yards

        

    Week 16 Tight End PPR Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupECR™vs. ECR
    1Greg Olsen (CAR)vs. ATL10
    2Travis Kelce (KC)vs. DEN20
    3Delanie Walker (TEN)at JAC30
    4Cameron Brate (TB)at NO40
    5Tyler Eifert (CIN)at HOU50
    6Kyle Rudolph (MIN)at GB60
    7Zach Ertz (PHI)vs. NYG70
    8Jimmy Graham (SEA)vs. ARI80
    9Antonio Gates (SD)at CLE11+2
    10Jordan Reed (WAS)at CHI9-1
    11Eric Ebron (DET)at DAL14+3
    12Martellus Bennett (NE)vs. NYJ10-2
    13Charles Clay (BUF)vs. MIA18+5
    14Hunter Henry (SD)at CLE13-1
    15Ryan Griffin (HOU)vs. CIN21+6
    16Jason Witten (DAL)vs. DET12-4
    17Jared Cook (GB)vs. MIN20+3
    18Coby Fleener (NO)vs. TB19+1
    19Dion Sims (MIA)at BUF25+6
    20Jermaine Gresham (ARI)at SEA24+4
    21Vernon Davis (WAS)at CHI23+2
    22Jack Doyle (IND)at OAK220
    23Gary Barnidge (CLE)vs. SD30+7
    24Dennis Pitta (BAL)at PIT29+5
    25Dwayne Allen (IND)at OAK28+3
    26Trey Burton (PHI)vs. NYG31+5
    27Daniel Brown (CHI)vs. WAS15-12
    28Garrett Celek (SF)at LA26-2
    29Austin Hooper (ATL)at CAR33+4
    30Lance Kendricks (LA)vs. SF27-3
    31A.J. Derby (DEN)at KC32+1
    32Ladarius Green (PIT)vs. BAL17-15
    33C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU)vs. CIN16-17

Defenses

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    Von Miller and the Broncos will make life difficult for the Chiefs.
    Von Miller and the Broncos will make life difficult for the Chiefs.Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

    Best Options Based on Matchups

    San Diego Chargers (at CLE)

    Nearly every team that has faced the Browns has appeared in this section each week and that continues with the Chargers. In the past four weeks (three games), the Browns allowed the second-most points to fantasy defenses. In their past four games, they scored just 45 points and gave up 20 sacks. The Chargers have a good enough unit to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

    Week 16 projection: 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 13 to 16 points allowed

        

    Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN)

    The resurgence of the Packers offense overshadowed how much better their defense has played coming down the stretch. That’s translated to the third-most fantasy points in the past four weeks thanks to 10 sacks, nine interceptions, three fumble recoveries and just 63 points allowed.

    Green Bay’s improved defense should take advantage of a struggling Minnesota Vikings offense. Over the last month, Minnesota gave up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses because of eight sacks, two interceptions, four lost fumbles and just 59 points scored by its offense. This matchup sets up well for the Packers defense to be a strong fantasy play.

    Week 16 projection: 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 14 to 17 points allowed

        

    Week 16 Defense Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupECR™vs. ECR
    1Seattle Seahawks (SEA)vs. ARI2+1
    2New England Patriots (NE)vs. NYJ1-1
    3Denver Broncos (DEN)at KC4+1
    4New York Giants (NYG)at PHI10+6
    5San Diego Chargers (SD)at CLE6+1
    6Kansas City Chiefs (KC)vs. DEN3-3
    7Green Bay Packers (GB)vs. MIN5-2
    8Buffalo Bills (BUF)vs. MIA7-1
    9Houston Texans (HOU)vs. CIN90
    10Tennessee Titans (TEN)at JAC8-2
    11Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT)vs. BAL110
    12Baltimore Ravens (BAL)at PIT15+3
    13Cincinnati Bengals (CIN)at HOU12-1
    14Arizona Cardinals (ARI)at SEA140
    15Oakland Raiders (OAK)vs. IND17+2
    16Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)vs. NYG160
    17Washington Redskins (WAS)at CHI18+1
    18Miami Dolphins (MIA)at BUF22+4
    19Atlanta Falcons (ATL)at CAR190
    20San Francisco 49ers (SF)at LA26+6

Kickers

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    Sebastian Janikowski looks to stay perfect in December.
    Sebastian Janikowski looks to stay perfect in December.Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

    Best Option Widely Available on the Waiver Wire 

    Sebastian Janikowski, OAK

    The Raiders give Janikowski plenty of opportunities. In the past five games, he hasn’t let them down once. Coming into Week 16, he’s made 13 consecutive field goals over the last five games and 40 straight extra points dating back to last season. He has racked up at least nine points five times in the past six games. He should have another busy game when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Raiders on Saturday afternoon.

        

    Week 16 Kicker Rankings

    #Player (team)MatchupECR™vs. ECR
    1Justin Tucker (BAL)at PIT10
    2Stephen Gostkowski (NE)vs. NYJ20
    3Matt Bryant (ATL)at CAR30
    4Dan Bailey (DAL)vs. DET40
    5Stephen Hauschka (SEA)vs. ARI50
    6Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)vs. IND60
    7Adam Vinatieri (IND)at OAK70
    8Josh Lambo (SD)at CLE11+3
    9Wil Lutz (NO)vs. TB10+1
    10Dustin Hopkins (WAS)at CHI8-2
    11Cairo Santos (KC)vs. DEN9-2
    12Graham Gano (CAR)vs. ATL14+2
    13Matt Prater (DET)at DAL12-1
    14Mason Crosby (GB)vs. MIN13-1
    15Brandon McManus (DEN)at KC150
    16Nick Novak (HOU)vs. CIN160
    17Roberto Aguayo (TB)at NO18+1
    18Chris Boswell (PIT)vs. BAL21+3
    19Robbie Gould (NYG)at PHI25+6
    20Caleb Sturgis (PHI)vs. NYG17-3

        

    Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus.

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