Fantasy Football: Streaming Quarterbacks and Defenses to Target for Week 1

We have developed a unique language of our own in this subculture of fantasy football. One term we often employ is "streaming"—which is the concept of leveraging the waiver wire to source widely available commodities in our lineups based on context found through research like specific matchup factors and encouraging Vegas indicators. 

Streaming isn't applicable in every fantasy format—in deep and challenging 14-team formats you might not find viable quarterback options available in a given week, but in most 10- and even 12-team leagues this strategy proves more realistic and often successful over the season-long sample when applied with some savvy. There are often helpful assets available in our leagues, we just have to look for them.

For this piece, we've identified several signal-callers drafted past the top 12 picks at the position on average in ESPN drafts that could prove productive in Week 1. We've also found some choice defensive options to consider for this inaugural weekend of the NFL.

In terms of using intel from Vegas for this process, we can look to the biggest implied point totals of the week. For example, in Indianapolis the Colts play host to the Detroit Lions in a game with a projected point total just over 50 points, per Odds Shark, suggesting a shootout could ensue. This makes shares of the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford quite intriguing as a fantasy prospect.

As for the defensive side of the ball, we can leverage the point projection system that Vegas and offshore sportsbooks produce each week in seeking streaming defense and special teams (D/ST) options. The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5 points.

The results showed from a study the author conducted of the 2014 season reveals favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept:

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate

The results of the research above are merely one approach for us to sift through the player pool for helpful assets. We're looking at every possible predictive angle available to us when seeking the best streaming options in a given week. Please join us as we survey the market for streaming options at quarterback and defense for Week 1.

Dak Prescott Poised to Produce a Strong Fantasy Debut

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The New York Football Giants ceded the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season in ESPN standard leagues. The Dallas Cowboys' rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, meanwhile, has earned the third-highest grade at quarterback from Pro Football Focus in the preseason. This is helpful to consider given an injury to incumbent starter Tony Romo means Prescott will get the start versus the Giants.

Prescott earned his gaudy preseason grade thanks to a 78 percent completion rate on 9.1 yards per attempt. With five touchdowns and no interceptions to go with such per-attempt efficiency, Prescott has earned a quarterback rating of 137.8. 

While at Mississippi State in the NFL Jr. division, also known as the SEC, Prescott averaged 801.0 rushing yards and 12.3 touchdowns on the ground over the past three seasons. If Prescott is likely due to struggle when facing the exotic defensive fronts found in regular-season action, especially as a departure from the vanilla nature of preseason defenses, it helps to consider the upside we can find from his legs.

Cameron DaSilva of Fox Sports reveals Prescott's presence as a late-round starting quarterback in the NFL proves rare, "Since 1970, only 11 quarterbacks taken in the fourth round have started a single game their rookie year. Only three of those have started five or more: Chris Weinke, Kyle Orton and Mike Pagel."

That's not exactly an inspired group of peers, but it's also a small sample to consider. Prescott is in a rare position as a widely available fantasy asset poised to produce starter-worthy production for both fantasy teams and the Cowboys in his professional debut.

Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions Could Enjoy Their Visit to Indy

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We can at times look to the desert—Vegas, that is—for help identifying worthy streaming signal-callers. The implied point total for the Detroit Lions' visit to Indianapolis in Week 1 to face the Colts is a rich 51 points on some books, per Odds Shark.

This point total contends with the Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints contest for the highest of the opening slate of NFL action. Such a lofty projected point total indicates the scoreboard should light up often, meaning we should be interested in shares of offensive players on both sides of the matchup.

For our purposes, the Lions' Matthew Stafford, going as QB17 in drafts this summer, per FantasyPros, is a viable starting option on a team with an implied team total of 24 points based on the combination of the point total and spread.

Once the Lions removed Joe Lombardi and installed Jim Bob Cooter at offensive coordinator in late October last season, Stafford averaged the sixth-most fantasy points at the position from that point (Week 8) on. Over those nine games, Stafford was 10th in QBR at the position (68.3) and second in completion percentage (69.0 percent) while recording a rich ratio of 2.2 touchdowns to 0.4 interceptions per game over that successful stretch. All this while still maintaining a volume-driven passing attack that saw him average just over 36 attempts per game.

The Colts could very well be the worst defense in the NFL given their lack of pass rush—they ranked 22nd in sacks last season—and a depleted secondary that ranked 24th in pass defense last season, per ESPN. Even if he's not your every-week solution behind center, Stafford is well-positioned to produce in Week 1.

Showdown in the Georgia Dome: Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan Offer Upside

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Atlanta QB Matt Ryan

While it reads a bit demonic, the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan produced 666 passing yards when facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season. The Bucs, for their part, ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to signal-callers in ESPN leagues in 2015.

While we're not big fans of Ryan's services in imaginary football leagues as an every-week option, shares of the Boston College product in Week 1 versus a familiar division foe are worth considering for those streaming behind center.

With an implied point total hovering around 48 points combined with a field-goal spread, per Odds Shark, multiple touchdowns from Ryan, an admitted rarity, could surface.

We also dig starting shares of the Bucs' sophomore signal-caller Jameis Winston in this division rivalry. Reports of a slimmed-down Winston entering his second season with a firm grasp of head coach Dirk Koetter's system propels interest in his upside for not just this game, but for the full season. In what could develop into a division shootout given the Vegas indicators and two exploitable secondaries in place, shares of both signal-callers could prove interesting. 

Brock Osweiler Offers Streaming Upside in Deeper Leagues

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The Chicago Bears allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing arms last season, using ESPN scoring. A strong showing from the Houston Texans' Brock Osweiler in the team's third preseason game offered evidence the tall signal-caller can potentially capitalize on an inviting matchup with the Bears defense.

Pro Football Focus' Pat Thorman identified an interesting trend in Osweiler's preseason performance that suggests some shares of a contrarian stack—a combination of a quarterback and pass-catcher—of the Texans quarterback and rookie burner Will Fuller could prove intriguing.

Thorman's tweet below details Osweiler's early preference for going deep to Fuller versus the blitz:

"

Osweiler has 14 blitzed passes and 7 have gone to Fuller, w/ a 21-yard aDOT (2 TD). No other HOU passcatcher has more than 2 blitzed targets

— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) August 29, 2016"

With the Texans positioned as home favorites, per Odds Shark, we find their specific team point total at 24.5 points as of press time. This respectable number indicates multiple touchdowns from the Texans, a reality that could prove helpful for Osweiler's fantasy potential if it plays out on the field in Week 1.

The Rams' Menacing Front Four Could Dominate on Defense in Week 1

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Only the Los Angeles Rams produced fewer total offensive yards than the San Francisco 49ers last season. Entering the new season, the Rams can at least claim a devastating front seven, spurred by an elite pass rush featuring All-Pro talents in Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald.

The 49ers enter the new campaign with head coach Chip Kelly's fast-snap offense in place, but pace is unlikely to mask a glaring lack of talent at the skill positions, particularly behind center.

Preseason tea leaves suggest Blaine Gabbert will start for the 49ers, he of the 34-to-55 career touchdown-to-turnover ratio. The 49ers ceded 53 sacks to opponents last season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. The combination of increased snaps, a turnover-prone quarterback and a leaky offensive line in pass protection spells serious fantasy upside for the Rams.

It also helps to consider the point total for this game sits at just 44.5 as of press time, per Odds Shark, suggesting a low-scoring defensive battle could emerge. The Rams have been taken as the 14th defense off the board in ESPN leagues, so they could be available in a number of 10- and 12-team formats for the first weekend of action.

For an additional piece of fun, the game is being played late on Monday Night Football with a 10:20 p.m. ET kickoff, thus you can secure a fantasy victory late into the night at the end of Week 1.

Fletcher Cox Leads an Aggressive Philly Defense Against the Browns in Week 1

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Opponents of the Cleveland Browns enjoyed the second-highest rate of fantasy production in the league on a per-game basis last season. While gifted offensive mind Hue Jackson is now at the helm, the team still lacks depth and talent on the offensive line and at outside receiver. This could spell fantasy upside for the Philadelphia Eagles in their matchup with the Browns in Week 1.

As part of their coaching staff overhaul, the Philadelphia Eagles brought in defensive guru Jim Schwartz as their defensive coordinator to maximize one of the league's better defensive fronts. The Eagles graded as the fifth-best pass-rush unit in the league last season, per Pro Football Focus. Newly extended All-Pro lineman Fletcher Cox has looked beastly in Philly's new Wide 9 scheme, which looks to spread out the four-man front with an aggressive bend on getting to the pocket.

This is the part where we mention the Browns allowed 53 sacks last season, tied for the second-most in the league. The Eagles are not only a touchdown favorite, per Odds Shark, but the game also hosts one of the week's lowest point totals, hovering around 43 points as of press time. With mistake-prone signal-caller Robert Griffin III under center for the Browns, we find real upside in the Eagles defense, a group being drafted 16th overall at the position in ESPN leagues.

Notable Defensive Streamers: The Tennessee Titans and New York Giants

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Giants DE Olivier Vernon

With Tennessee Titans' defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau deploying his aggressive scheme on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, we are warming up to the idea of netting a matchup with veteran journeyman Shaun Hill at quarterback.

After Teddy Bridgewater's unfortunate season-ending injury suffered in practice this week, this matchup suddenly appears appealing for those seeking streaming defensive options in Week 1.

The New York Giants spent heavily on their defensive roster this offseason, with the marquee move being the decision to import talented pressure maven Olivier Vernon. The former Miami Dolphin led Pro Football Focus' grading of 4-3 defensive ends last season while leading the league in quarterback hits. 

While we've already endorsed Cowboys rookie signal-caller Dak Prescott in this piece for his dual-threat upside as a streaming option this week, he's certainly not without risk of producing multiple meaningful mistakes in his professional debut. If the Giants' overhauled defensive can produce steady pressure on the pocket and force the game into Prescott's hands by slowing down the Cowboys' running game early, shares of New York could prove week-shifting in fantasy formats.