Oklahoma Sooners vs. Houston Cougars Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The Houston Cougars exploded onto the national scene last year, winning 13 games and upsetting Florida State in a New Year's Eve bowl.  Playing some good ball below the national radar for the last several seasons, the Cougars have piled up a 14-1-1 run against the spread as underdogs.

But the word is out on Houston, which opens the 2016 season against Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon at NRG Stadium.

Point spread: Sooners opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.1-33.4 Sooners

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

Oklahoma gets back 13 starters from a team that won the Big 12 and made the College Football Playoff last year. Seven starters are back from an offense that averaged 43.5 points per game last year, led by a pair of Heisman candidates in quarterback Baker Mayfield (68.1 completion percentage, 36 TDs, 7 INTs last season) and running back Samaje Perine (1,349 rushing yards), plus three along the offensive line.

Meanwhile, six starters are back on a defense that allowed just 22 points per game last year. Also, while going 9-4 ATS last season the Sooners went 3-1 ATS when favored by 10 points or less, according to the Odds Shark College Football Database.

Why the Houston Cougars can cover the spread

Houston only returns 11 starters this season from a team that went 13-1 and finished in the Top 10 in the rankings, but that's exactly how many they had heading into last year. They get back six starters on an offense that averaged 484 yards and 40 points per game last year, including senior quarterback Greg Ward (3,941 total yards, 38 combined touchdowns). Five starters are also back on a defense that held foes to 21 points per game last season.

It's hard to believe, playing in the AAC, but the Cougars went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against ranked teams last year.

Smart pick

Houston caught lightning in a bottle last year, and that's hard to do two years in a row. The record was gaudy, but the schedule (despite playing four ranked teams) was weak. This year nobody will take the Cougars lightly. As for Saturday, the biggest mismatch may be Mayfield going against a young Houston secondary. The smart money here sides with the Sooners as they begin a quest for a national championship.

Betting trends

Houston is 12-1-1 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog.

Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games after a loss.

The total has gone over in six of Oklahoma's last eight games.

All point spread and betting lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Odds Shark on Twitter and YouTube for injury information, line movement updates and more game analysis, and get the free odds tracker app.