UFC Loses Top Welterweight Rory MacDonald to Bellator: Big Deal or Nah?

The Red King has gone in search of a greener fiefdom.

Rory MacDonald’s UFC exit Wednesday was that rare case of “breaking news” that had been in the works for months. Fans have known since a May appearance on Ariel Helwani’s The MMA Hour that MacDonald was considering free agency once his current contract was up and that Bellator MMA was his most likely destination.

Still, when confirmation that MacDonald was indeed on the move came via a report from FloCombat.com, there was cause for raised eyebrows. It was just 13 months ago, after all, that the 27-year-old Canadian was challenging Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title at UFC 189 in 2015’s Fight of the Year.

A fighter as well-liked and high-profile as MacDonald bailing on his career in the Octagon for Bellator? That’s certainly no small thing.

But exactly how big of a deal is it for Bellator, the UFC and the man himself?

Here, five members of the Bleacher Report MMA staff debate what it all might mean...

---

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

Steven Rondina: Well, gentlemen, I think I speak for all of us here when I say that MacDonald’s signing with Bellator is one of those completely expected surprises.

It was pretty clear a few months back that the relationship between the UFC and the Great Canadian Hope was as frosty as Nunavut. The fact that he was booked into a tough match with surging kickboxer Stephen Thompson after nearly a year off felt deliberate on the UFC’s part, and when he lost that matchup via clear-cut unanimous decision, it had taken enough of his thunder that it could comfortably let him walk.

Still, let’s go over the statistics with MacDonald. He just turned 27 last month, so he’s relatively young in the grand scheme of MMA. He’s Canadian, which is valuable for any promotion that travels north of the border. And he has a strong resume that includes clean wins over welterweight champ Tyron Woodley, possible top contender Demian Maia and the division’s biggest name right now, Nate Diaz.

So is this actually a game-changer for Bellator in any way?

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Jonathan Snowden: Before the inevitable accusations of “hate” and “bias” bubble up from the comments below, allow me to make one thing perfectly clear—I am a big Rory MacDonald fan.

Over the years, we’ve seen him push Carlos Condit to the limit, toss Diaz around like a tackling dummy and eviscerate a cavalcade of opponents with a frightening lack of effect. MacDonald is awesome, if terrifying, and I hope he’s paid life-changing amounts of money.

But I just can’t see how he makes the kind of impact Bellator needs for the bundles of cash it no doubt tossed his way to leave the UFC for the hinterlands on Spike. Although just 27, he’s an ancient one in MMA years with more than a decade as a full-time fighter. Like it or not, that’s when fighters begin to fade.

Signing with Bellator is, in many ways, a bet against yourself. Yes, you can get a larger per-fight guarantee that way. But you’ll never earn the pay-per-view bonus that comes with being the UFC champion. A fighter who signs with Spike is all but admitting they don’t believe they have what it takes anymore to earn UFC gold.

There are five paradigm-shifting free agents in MMA—Conor McGregor, Ronda Rousey, Georges St-Pierre, Brock Lesnar and Jon Jones. Any one of them could launch Bellator or another player into pay-per-view. But even those names would run into the same problem MacDonald faces—who would they fight?

Bellator has signed a great fighter. It hasn’t, however, come up with a great fight. That’s sort of a problem.

John Locher/Associated Press

Scott Harris: Rory can’t carry a pay-per-view, but he can certainly carry a TV card. He’ll at least get that chance in Bellator where maybe he wouldn’t have in the UFC, which is notorious for going out of its way to ice out those who dare cross it. I don’t see the move so much as a bet against oneself as a cutting of losses.

Why would Rory and Bellator have that confidence? MacDonald’s past wars may (or may not) have permanently diminished the Red King’s skills, but there’s an ace in the hole here that the UFC probably wouldn’t have played: MacDonald’s personality.

Can he cut a sweet promo? Nah. Is he even what you might call conversive? Eh, no. But there’s a reason his cult following is so large. The guy is strange and he is candid and he is hilarious and he’s like absolutely no one else in MMA today.

Look at his honesty over the UFC situation or even something like his issue with broken noses. Look at his fashion sense. Look at his (reasonably) ready acceptance of the American Psycho comparisons.

He’s always there, dressed to the nines, mumbling out responses about how he just wants to tear out his opponent’s intestines and why does everyone think he’s so weird. Bellator can and will work with this, and it’s a good backstop against any talent erosion. (Its thin welterweight stable could be a blessing in disguise on this front as well, particularly since Bellator matchmakers don’t seem to care much about booking super-competitive fights.)

Even so, it’s not certain this move was the right one. Surely, Bellator opened up the checkbook, but the ceiling is definitely lower there. Sponsorship opportunities will increase again, but “opportunities” are not the same as “sponsorships,” or “lots of money.” Ask Benson Henderson how that goes.

In the meantime, though, Bellator will give MacDonald winnable fights and the star treatment his fans know he deserves. That’ll be enough for now.

Nathan McCarter: The UFC not matching the offer sheet seems right on with how it's handled other fighters in similar positions in the past. Namely, Benson Henderson and Phil Davis. MacDonald isn’t a draw, and he is likely past his fighting prime. The value to pay a premium for his services just isn’t there for the UFC.

Is it a good get for Bellator? Absolutely. Does it change anything? No. Not even remotely.

The UFC is still a PPV company at heart, and MacDonald doesn’t move the needle in that regard. And with welterweight regaining some steam with Stephen Thompson on the brink of breaking through, there just isn’t cause to match the offer. While he never headlined a PPV himself, he was the co-main numerous times. At UFC 174, he was likely the biggest draw on the card even with Demetrious Johnson defending in the main event. It barely did over 100,000 buys, per MMAPayout.com.

MacDonald is still a Top 10 welterweight much the same as Phil Davis was a Top 10 light heavyweight and Benson Henderson was a Top 10 lightweight. But this game is all about value. Those two didn’t have it and neither does MacDonald. The UFC made the right business decision here.

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

Chad Dundas: This isn’t the golden-ticket signing that is going to magically rocket Bellator into a neck-and-neck race with the UFC, but it’s still a great move for both the company and MacDonald. Mind you, the Canadian Psycho isn’t just some anonymous “Top 10 welterweight.” Before the UFC yanked him from its official rankings on Wednesday, he was the No. 3-ranked contender, behind only champion Woodley, former champ Lawler and top contender Thompson.

Despite his already substantial career, that lofty status (coupled with the relative youth we’ve all mentioned) makes him the single biggest free agent to cross the aisle from the UFC to Bellator to date. Even if he’s not a guy who’s going to single-handedly change the landscape of the entire sport, this is a significant signpost on the road to better pay and better working conditions for MMA’s athletes.

For the first five-and-a-half years of his career inside the Octagon, MacDonald was an unassuming company man for the UFC. The fact he’s willing to take charge of his own career and leave the organization for a pay raise somewhere else is meaningful. It may well be indicative of slowly changing attitudes among the UFC’s long docile workforce.

If “testing free agency” stops being an anomaly and starts being the agreed-upon course of business in this sport, then maybe we really will be talking about a brave new world.

In MacDonald, Bellator gets a high-level asset it can match against guys like welterweight champion Andrey Koreshkov (arguably the best 170-pounder in the world most people have never heard of), fellow recent UFC expatriate Henderson or even veteran slugger Paul Daley. For MacDonald himself, perhaps he’ll earn a few paydays big enough to provide him a better life when he walks away from fighting.

Not sure it has to be any more complicated than that.