UFC 202 Betting Preview: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor Odds, Analysis

Conor McGregor (19-3) underestimated Nate Diaz (19-10) the first time they met in the headlining welterweight matchup at UFC 196 back on March 5.

On Saturday, McGregor will not be overlooking Diaz and will instead be seeking revenge in the rematch as a small -130 betting favorite (wager $130 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

McGregor held his own in the first round of his first career bout at 170 pounds, 25 more than he typically fights at as the reigning featherweight champion. But in the second round, the bigger Diaz took advantage of a fatigued McGregor and submitted him via rear-naked choke to pull off a sizable upset.

Diaz (+100) has bounced between lightweight (155 pounds) and welterweight throughout his MMA career and has a three-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage over the smaller McGregor.

Whether size will matter in the rematch remains to be seen, as McGregor has had an extra five months to get used to carrying more weight and work on his conditioning.

Regardless of what happens, he will still have Jose Aldo waiting for him in another rematch for the featherweight title. McGregor stunned Aldo with a 13-second knockout at UFC 194 last December 12 before falling to Diaz as a huge favorite.

Another upset win for Diaz could also mean a lightweight title shot against new champ Eddie Alvarez.

Before that intriguing bout unfolds, though, another key fight will take place in the co-main event at light heavyweight. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (21-5) and Glover Teixeira (25-4) will battle for another shot at the championship belt, currently held by undisputed champ Daniel Cormier due to the indefinite suspension for Jon “Bones” Jones.

Johnson’s last loss came against Cormier for the belt at UFC 187 last year, but he is hungry for a rematch as a -200 favorite against Teixeira. He has followed up that setback with consecutive knockout wins over Jimi Manuwa and Ryan Bader, both of which earned Performance of the Night bonuses.

Meanwhile, Teixeira fought for the title two years ago when Jones was the champ, losing by unanimous decision. He is riding a three-bout winning streak and is listed as a +160 underdog (bet $100 to win $160).