Super Bowl LI Picks: Seahawks over Steelers According to NFL Season Simulation

The Seattle Seahawks came up short in Super Bowl XL against the Pittsburgh Steelers, losing that title game by a score of 21-10 back in February 2006. According to a simulation from a predictive score modeling site, though, Seattle will finally get its revenge this season.

The Seahawks, just third on the odds to win Super Bowl LI at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark for the season ahead, are nevertheless the projected winner of February's big game at PredictionMachine.com.

The stat gurus at that website ran a simulation of the 2016 NFL season 50,000 times, and the Seahawks came out as the Super Bowl LI champions 11.7 percent of the time—tops in the league. That would be a two-round improvement for the Seahawks over last season, when they were knocked out in the divisional round by the Carolina Panthers.

The Steelers, meanwhile, were crowned AFC champions in 14.8 percent of the simulations, making them the most common AFC participant in the Super Bowl over the New England Patriots (14.3 percent) and Denver Broncos (11.5 percent). Pittsburgh then went on to win the Super Bowl in 7.3 percent of the simulations.

In the simulated Super Bowl LI matchups between the Seahawks and Steelers, however, it was Seattle that came out on top 55.5 percent of the time. The average score was 27-24 Seattle.

The Seahawks have been to the Super Bowl twice in the past three seasons, beating the Denver Broncos 43-8 at Super Bowl XLVIII and losing to the New England Patriots 28-24 at Super Bowl XLIX. Seattle finished with a 10-6 record last season, which put it behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West standings and forced it into Wild Card Weekend.

The Steelers last made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2010 season, when they lost 31-25 to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV. Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XLIII 27-23 over the Cardinals just three seasons after topping the Seahawks for the league title.

Pittsburgh is fourth at +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200) on the odds to win Super Bowl LI at the sportsbooks, placing them behind the Patriots (+600), Packers (+850) and Seahawks (+1100) on those odds.