NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Chargers at Steelers Preview and Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off back to back road losses to the Chicago Bears and the Cincinnati Bengals. However, Vegas odds makers do not seem think that the general betting public is ready to jump off the Steelers bandwagon just yet as they were installed as a 6 point favorite over the 2-1 Chargers. The line has since moved up to 6.5 in Vegas and offshore with a few shops having the Steelers listed as 7 point favorites. Therefore, if you are betting on this game be sure to shop around to get the best line available for your side.

In their last 8 road games, the Chargers are just 2-6 against the number and failed to cover in their only road game this season against the Oakland Raiders. They are also just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two clubs. The Chargers and Steelers met in the AFC Divisional round last season with the Steelers dominating the game from start to finish in route to a 35-24 victory. In that game, the Chargers who were without LT and were held to just 15 yards rushing. Tomlinson has been banged up this season as well, but is expected to play in Sunday’s showdown. There are some other injury concerns for the Chargers as Shawn Merriman and big play wide receiver Vincent Jackson are listed as questionable for the week.

Without Tomlinson, the Chargers have relied much more heavily on the pass this season. They are averaging just over 315 yards passing per game but just 66.3 on the ground. If Jackson can not play, the Chargers could struggle as he has become Phillip River’s go to guy down the field and Pittsburgh is still one of the top teams in the NFL in run defense, allowing just 76.3 rushing yards per game. So something has to give, either LT needs to burst out and have a big game or Vincent Jackson needs to be on the field to test the Steelers’ secondary without Troy Polamalu.

As for the Steelers, they have yet to cover the spread in any of their first three games and are just 1-2 straight up. The biggest factor leading to the poor start has been the Steelers inability to get their offense in gear. They have put an average of just 15.7 points up per game. Much like the Chargers, they have not been able to get the run game going either. However, this week could be the week for the Steelers to establish the run against a Chargers defense that is allowing 142 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Willie Parker has been banged up but is listed as probable. If Parker and Rashard Mendenhall can run the ball on this Charger defense, it will take the pressure off of Big Ben to feel like he always needs to make the big play.

I expect this to be a very entertaining game. If Vincent Jackson plays and plays well, he can expose the Steelers’ secondary. However, if they have to rely on the running game it could be difficult to score points because the Steelers front seven is outstanding at stopping the run. Pittsburgh can win this game if they establish a run game of their own and improve their secondary play against a quarterback in Phillip Rivers who is capable of stretching defenses down the field. It will be interesting to see how these match ups pan out on NBC Sunday night. 

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