Predicting the Top Candidates for the 2016-17 Vezina Trophy

Nine goalies received votes for the Vezina Trophy in 2015-16, with Braden Holtby of the Washington Capitals leading the way. Holtby delivered a fabulous season, highlighted by 66 starts, 48 wins and strong finishes in all categories.

The Vezina Trophy is voted on by the 30 NHL general managers, with guidelines explained per NHL.com. In securing 26 first-place votes, Holtby established himself as the clear choice among general managers, with Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick and Corey Crawford also receiving first-place votes.

Martin Brodeur is the last goalie to win the Vezina Trophy two years in a row—in 2007 and 2008—and seven different goalies have won the award in the last eight seasons. That may indicate that the odds of Holtby winning the award again this year are low, but he is 26—turning 27 in September—meaning he is in his prime and should be able to perform at this level for several more years.

Here are the top contenders for the 2016-17 Vezina Trophy, including the established and the emerging, as we prepare for the upcoming NHL season.

The Favorite: Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

John Locher/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 66 GP, 48-9-7, 2.20 GAA, .922 save percentage, 3 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Holtby combined exceptional numbers across the board, leading the entire NHL in wins—the most important statistic in the game. The Washington Capitals may reduce Holtby's starts this season in an effort to make him fresher come playoff time. 

 

2016 Vezina Results

The race for the Vezina Trophy in 2016 was never really in doubt, with Holtby winning easily. He received 26 of 30 first-place votes, three second-place votes and one third-place vote—as shown on Hockey-Reference.com. His 140 total votes led the runner-up goaltender by 89 votes.

 

Projection for 2016-17

The Washington Capitals are a strong contender for the Stanley Cup, and part of the team's strength comes in goal. Holtby posted a .922 save percentage in the regular season, but that number increased to .942 in 12 playoff games—good enough to lead the NHL.

A reduction in regular-season work could result in an even better performance and a deeper playoff run. Backup Philipp Grubauer had a strong rookie season in 2015-16 and should be able to take on more of the load this season. 

Leading Contender: Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 61 GP, 35-21-4, 2.06 GAA, .926 save percentage, 6 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Bishop has established himself as one of the best goalies in the NHL and has 112 victories in the last three seasons. The Tampa Bay Lightning are inside a window of opportunity to win the Stanley Cup, and Bishop has provided them with championship-calibre goaltending in the last three seasons. His injury during the playoffs is concerning, but Tampa Bay will get another chance next spring.

2016 Vezina Results

He finished No. 2 in Vezina Trophy voting and Bishop was one of only two goalies to receive more than one first-place vote. He also finished in the top three overall in 2013-14, suggesting general managers regard him as a top flight goaltender.

Projection for 2016-17

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in a unique situation. The team's backup goalie—Andrei Vasilevskiy—is a tremendous young prospect, possibly the top emerging goaltender in the game. Although Bishop is clearly the No. 1 option entering the season, he is a free agent at the end of the 2016-17 season.

General Fanager shows the team has a cap issue and a lot of players yet to sign, and there may not be enough money to bring Bishop back after the coming year. 

The Annual Contender: Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 68 GP, 40-23-5, 2.22 GAA, .918 save percentage, 5 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Jonathan Quick of the Los Angeles Kings is a perennial contender for the Vezina Trophy. He finished No. 2 in 2011-12, No. 5 in 2013-14, No. 7 in 2014-15 and No. 3 in 2015-16. At age 30, Quick should have a few more years to win.

2016 Vezina Results

Quick finished No. 3 in voting, garnering a first-place vote, eight second-place votes and seven placing him in third place overall. Over half of the NHL's general managers voted Quick as one of the top three goalies in the game last season. 

Projection for 2016-17

The Kings signed Jeff Zatkoff in free agency this summer, as reported by Frank Seravalli of TSN. Quick is a workhorse goalie and should play most of the schedule again next year. The Kings are a strong contender annually, so Quick should be in the mix again in 2016-17—maybe this is the year he wins the Vezina.

The Hail Mary: Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

2015-16 Stats: 62 GP, 35-19-6, 2.35 GAA, .922 save percentage, 4 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Roberto Luongo of the Florida Panthers finished No. 3 in Vezina Trophy voting in 2004, and more than a decade later is still delivering top-quality performances. The goaltending position tends to burn out very good players by their early 30s, so at 37, Luongo is a very rare performer.

2016 Vezina Results

Luongo finished No. 4 in Vezina voting in 2016, his highest ranking since 2011. He was named on eight ballots and received 14 votes.

Projection for 2016-17

The Panthers brought in James Reimer during the summer and Luongo may be entering his final season with Florida. Betting against the veteran is never wise; NHL shooters have over a decade of proof to guide them. Luongo and the Panthers seem to have something going in Florida. This could be a special season.

The Comeback Kid: Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 12 GP, 10-2-0, 2.06 GAA, .934 save percentage, 2 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens had a difficult season due to injury. When healthy, Price displayed the kind of ability that won him the 2015 Vezina Trophy. Price's 2014-15 season was so incredible that he also won the Hart Trophy, the Jennings Trophy and First All-Star Team honors—listed at Hockey-Reference.com.

2016 Vezina Results

Price played only 12 games all year, and received no votes in 2016 balloting.

Projection for 2016-17

Montreal faded badly without Price, and it gave management an opportunity to see just how much the team relies on its franchise goalie. Major changes in the offseason—highlighted by the deal that sent P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber—signal greater attention to defense and responsible play. Incredibly, it could mean Price's numbers improve in 2016-17, and he has to be considered one of the strongest contenders for the honor.

Mr. Consistent: Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 58 GP, 35-18-5, 2.37 GAA, .924 save percentage, 7 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Corey Crawford of the Chicago Blackhawks is a very consistent goaltender on a very good team. Crawford delivered save percentages of .926, .917, .924 and .924 in the last four seasons. That kind of consistency is vital for winning teams, but sometimes means the goalie gets overlooked for major awards—there are no major spikes in performance.

2016 Vezina Results

He finished in a tie for No. 5 in voting for 2016, including one first-place vote. Only four goalies received a first-place vote.

Projection for 2016-17

Crawford is an outstanding goalie on a historically strong team—that often means the expectation is very high for the stopper. Although he is a very consistent goaltender who should receive heavy consideration, chances are he will be overlooked for the award—while a player who displays unexpected excellence will win.

The Phenom: Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 13 GP, 9-2-1, 2.00 GAA, .930 save percentage, 1 shutout (from Hockey-Reference)

Matt Murray was one of the best—and least likely—stories in the NHL last year. His regular season audition went spectacularly well, but no one could have anticipated the playoff run for Murray.

2016 Vezina Results

Murray was a brilliant recall during the regular season, but nothing more. He received no votes in 2016 balloting.

Projection for 2016-17

The Penguins are a bit of a mystery in goal for the coming season. Marc-Andre Fleury is the established veteran, but he also comes with a hefty price tag. Murray will make less than $1 million next season and if he plays at his early NHL levels, we may see a major goalie trade from Pittsburgh in the next 12 months.

Under the Radar Excellence: Cory Schneider, New Jersey Devils

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 58 GP, 27-25-6, 2.15 GAA, .924 save percentage, 4 shutouts (from Hockey-Reference)

Cory Schneider of the New Jersey Devils may be the most underrated player in the NHL. He has posted a .920 or better save percentage in every season since 2010-11. Schneider has toiled in obscurity in recent years, but the numbers don't lie: He is an outstanding goalie.

2016 Vezina Results

Schneider finished in a tie for No. 5 in voting with 10 votes in 2016. He was named on eight ballots, an impressive total.

Projection for 2016-17

The Devils have sound defense and an excellent goalie in Schneider, but have been miles away from the playoffs. The club added Taylor Hall to help offensively, and some of the team's young players are maturing.

If Schneider can maintain his current level of play—a very good bet—he could get a lot of attention if New Jersey takes a big leap in the standings. He is a long shot, but there is a chance Schneider could be in contention for the Vezina Trophy next summer.