Realistic Expectations for Chicago Bulls Rookie Denzel Valentine in 2016-17
Denzel Valentine missed his first six shots in the Las Vegas Summer League championship game last week, and he didn't score until the fourth quarter. But that didn't scare the Chicago Bulls coaches from diagramming a play for the former Michigan State star in the final seconds of regulation while trailing by three points.
Valentine delivered, and then did so again in overtime, hitting a buzzer-beater to give the Bulls a summer-league title.
The faith in Valentine and the reward were not surprising to anyone who watched the guy the last few years at Michigan State. Valentine has his limitations—mostly a lack of NBA-level athleticism—but he makes up for it with intelligence, confidence and skill.
"From the day he walked into our facility, he hasn't blinked," Chicago assistant Pete Myers, who was the head coach of the summer-league squad, told K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "We knew this kid was confident. He's not afraid of big moments.
"I have this on the board in my office: 'Aggressive failure.' That's what he shows all the time. He's not afraid to fail and I love him for it."
Valentine's summer stat line looked somewhat underwhelming for a guy who split national player of the year awards with Buddy Hield. Valentine averaged 11.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, shooting 35.2 percent from the field—worst of all, he was just 25.5 percent from deep.
But that undersells how clutch he was in big moments and his savviness with the ball in his hands. He not only made smart plays on both ends; he made the game easier for his teammates with his vision and pinpoint passes.
And the most important number of all from his summer-league performance: 7-0, as in Chicago's record.
Team Fit
The Bulls went in a strange direction this offseason. After unloading Derrick Rose and letting Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah walk, it appeared they were trying to get younger, build around Jimmy Butler and create a roster that better fit the philosophies of head coach Fred Hoiberg.
Then they signed Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, a contradiction to those three goals. Rondo and Wade are, like Butler, ball-dominant guards, and they're on the wrong side of their career arcs.
So trying to figure out what Chicago is doing is challenging. The best guess is that the Bulls want winners and guys who understand how to play the game, and Hoiberg will figure out how to mold the pieces together. That would be a good explanation for why they grabbed Valentine as well.
Valentine is one of the rare rookies who can seamlessly slide into a lineup with these veterans and be accepted. In Vegas, he looked like a veteran among rookies in the way he operated on both ends. He understands how to play team defense and was well-schooled by Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo.
Offensively, Valentine is such a cerebral passer that he seems to see plays develop before anyone else. His assist numbers in Vegas don't reflect how well he passed the ball or the hockey assists he had that set up baskets.
Hoiberg thrived with his type when he coached Iowa State, building efficient offenses around Royce White and Georges Niang, players who also had their limitations but were excellent passers with high basketball IQs.
Valentine also provides outside shooting that this roster badly needs from its perimeter players. He didn't shoot well in Vegas, but his 44.4 percent three-point accuracy as a senior at Michigan State is more in line with his abilities as a shooter.
And while the Bulls may lack shooting in their starting lineup, they could put together a terrific shooting bench unit with Valentine, Isaiah Canaan, Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis.
Valentine will likely be in competition with Tony Snell for the backup shooting guard spot, but his ability to shoot and pass could win him minutes. In that theoretical lineup above, his penetrating skills would benefit that group, especially McDermott and Mirotic.
Valentine is not quick, but he has a knack for getting a step on his defender and getting into the lane to kick out to shooters. The ability to play that kind of playmaker at the off-guard spot in a space-and-pace setting, which Hoiberg prefers, is extremely valuable.
Concerns
Valentine's lack of foot speed and explosion are the main knocks on his game. He still seems to free himself with the ball in his hands because he knows how to use his body or ball screens to create space.
The main area where his lack of athleticism proved to be problematic in summer league was on the defensive end. Valentine deserved a solid grade for his defensive efforts, especially off the ball. But he often got in situations where he had to foul because he just wasn't quick enough to stay in front of his man in space—he averaged three fouls per game.
It is worth noting that Valentine has the awareness to foul when he is beat and rarely gives up an easy bucket. Ideally, he'd be quick enough to avoid those situations. He does make up for a lack of quickness with his understanding for proper positioning and footwork. He's like a veteran who has lost a step but knows little tricks to survive.
Valentine is not going to be one of the best defenders in the league, but he's smart enough to survive. And as a bench player, foul trouble should rarely come into play.
Expectations
It's possible that Valentine spends most of his rookie season as a fringe rotation guy and only gets real minutes if the Bulls experience injuries. With the mileage on Wade and Rondo, that scenario would likely play out in his favor.
But it's also possible that Hoiberg finds a way to fit Valentine in his rotation because it would be hard to keep that guy on the bench. He's not the typical rookie who needs to sit and watch and learn how to be a pro. He's years ahead of his peers in his understanding for how to play the game.
The player in the 2015 draft class Valentine most resembles is, ironically, former Notre Dame point guard Jerian Grant, who the Bulls acquired in the Rose trade.
Grant had a decent rookie season in New York, averaging 5.6 points and 2.3 assists per game. But he was a weird fit in the triangle—it was strange the Knicks drafted him in the first place because of that—and he also shot a crummy 22 percent from distance.
Valentine is a better-shooting, less-athletic version of Grant. The two played well alongside each other in summer league, and that bodes well for future Chicago bench units.
Valentine has the fortune, unlike Grant, of spending his rookie season playing in a system that is a better fit for his game. He will have to make the adjustment of a position change. Based off summer league, it appears the Bulls plan to use him as a shooting guard—he played point guard last season at Michigan State, but he spent much of his college career off the ball and looked comfortable in that spot in Vegas.
So expect Valentine's rookie numbers to be slightly better than Grant's rookie campaign in New York. The combination of team fit and Valentine's jumper are working in his advantage, and he has the level of confidence it takes for a rookie to make an instant impact.
Complete Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 18.2
- Points: 5.8
- Rebounds: 3.3
- Assists: 2.7
- Steals: 0.9
- Field-goal percentage: .392
- Three-point percentage: .351
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
