S. Florida (-6.5) 26 SYRACUSE 21
South Florida's upset win at Florida State was no fluke, as the Bulls out-gained the Seminoles 6.4 yards per play to 4.5 yppl with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels making his first start. Daniels is a pretty good passer, but his biggest talent is running with the ball. Daniels ran for 152 yards on 21 runs last week and he's now gained 285 yards on 36 runs this season despite playing the equivalent of 1 1/2 games.
Syracuse has a good run defense, allowing just 3.6 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average team, but good run defenses don't necessarily defend good running quarterbacks and Syracuse is not likely to stop the pass well (the Orange have allowed 7.3 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would average just 5.7 yppp against an average team).
My math favors South Florida by 10 points but the Bulls apply to a very negative 19-70 ATS letdown situation and a 22-62-3 ATS game 5 angle.
The technical analysis is stronger than the line value and I'll lean slightly with Syracuse.
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