Tom Brady Is Under Too Much Pressure, and It Could Crush the Patriots Dynasty

Tom Brady is feeling too much pressure.

No, it's not the pressure of preparing to attempt to lead the Patriots to a fifth Super Bowl victory. He's used to that kind of pressure. And no, it's not the pressure of maintaining excellence into early middle age, either. He's handling that gracefully. And it's absolutely not the (ugh) pounds per square inch of pressure inside a football 18 months ago. 

Brady is feeling old-fashioned pass pressure, the kind that comes when defenders approach from all directions and try to crush him.

That pressure is increasing every year. Preventing it is largely out of Brady's control. And if that pressure doesn't abate, the Patriots' 2016 Super Bowl hopes and the very future of the dynasty may be in jeopardy.

Brady's total amount of times pressured and percentage of pressured pass plays have gone up every year since 2012, according to snap-by-snap tracking by Football Outsiders: 

Year	Times Pressured	Percent of Pass Plays
2010	100	18.9%
2011	136	20.6%
2012	105	15.5%
2013	138	20.3%
2014	140	22.5%
2015	174	25.7%

A pressure rate of 25.7 percent is close to the NFL average. Eighteen starting quarterbacks were pressured on a greater percentage of their pass attempts than Brady last year. So Brady isn't completely under siege in the pocket. But keep in mind that:

• Most of the quarterbacks who cope with more of a pass rush than Brady are young, mobile quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick (32.7 percent), Russell Wilson (31.7), Blake Bortles (27.4) and Ryan Tannehill (28.1). Scramblers historically deal with more pressure than pocket passers because they hold onto the ball longer. Young quarterbacks are less likely to audible or check down to avoid trouble than veterans.
• Many of the quarterbacks who face as much pressure as Brady play for bad teams: Nick Foles (28.3), Josh McCown (31.1), Kaepernick, Tannehill and Bortles. Brady and the Patriots do not want to be in this company.
• Brady drops back to pass more than most quarterbacks. He finished third in the NFL in pass attempts last year, trailing only Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Rivers and Brees faced a lower rate of pressure than Brady (24.5 and 21.6 percent, respectively) even though they played for unsuccessful teams and were constantly forced to throw the ball when trailing. Brady's high pressure rate and high passing total led to more potential hits and more plays that are affected by the pass rush compared to most veteran quarterbacks.

Because you are probably wondering: Peyton Manning's pressure rate was 24.3 percent last year but a glittering 13.1 in 2014 and 14.8 in 2013.

Brady has few peers, so seeing his pressure rate rise above those of Manning, Brees and Rivers is troubling. The only veteran pocket field general who faced a higher pressure percentage than Brady last year was Carson Palmer (28.1 percent), who threw 87 fewer passes and started falling apart late in the season.

Come to think of it, Brady was feeling a little too much heat late in the season and in the playoffs, too.

Pressure Takes Its Toll

Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history at handling defensive pressure. He can read a blitz before the defensive coordinator can finish calling it, audible at the line, wink at Rob Gronkowski or nod at Julian Edelman and make your defense look silly.

Al Bello/Getty Images

That's why it's worrisome to see Brady's pressure total creeping up. His best method of coping with the pass rush is to neutralize it before it arrives with quick decisions and quicker passes. Those 174 pressured passes last year represent plays where Brady magic just wasn't enough.

No quarterback is nearly as good when rushed as he is when given time to throw. Six years of Football Outsiders data shows that even the craziest scramblers are much better from a clean pocket than on the run. For example, Michael Vick in 2010 averaged 3.3 yards per pass play when pressured but 9.0 yards per play when not pressured.

Brady is no exception. He averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per pass play (including sacks and scrambles) when rushed last year, the seventh-best figure in the NFL. But 4.2 yards per pass play is not good. Brady facing a heavy rush is not as good as an ordinary quarterback with time to throw and is nowhere near as good as Brady with time to throw, one of the most unstoppable forces in modern professional sports.

Here are Brady's completion rates, yards per attempt and interception rates when pressured and not pressured since 2012, via Football Outsiders:

	Pressured			Not pressured
Year	Cmp%	Yds/Att	INT%	Cmp%	Yds/Att	INT%
2012	31.3%	3.6	0.0%	66.0%	7.9	1.7%
2013	36.7%	4.7	1.0%	65.5%	7.4	1.9%
2014	43.8%	4.9	4.1%	65.4%	7.2	0.8%
2015	37.2%	6.4	1.7%	71.3%	8.0	1.0%

No sacks are included in the above table, as nearly all sacks are the result of pass pressure (quarterbacks slip or lose their handle on the snap now and then). So Brady averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt, but his yards per pass play dipped to 4.2 when sacks were included. Brady, unlike Wilson and others, has minimal scramble yardage to offset the sack losses when rushed.

Brady appears to be getting better as he ages if you examine the clean-pocket data. There are distortions in the data—Brady faced a lot of clean pockets against opponents like the Jaguars and Titans last year, as well as when enjoying commanding leads where he could audible to a handoff in any pinch—but at any rate, Brady is at least maintaining his excellence from a clean pocket, as his raw totals from last year (three-year highs in yards, touchdowns, efficiency rating and so forth) would suggest.

The pressure data tells a more complicated story. Brady's completion rate took a dive last year. His interception rate went down, but his sack rate bounced from 3.5 percent to 5.7 percent. Brady may actually be a little better under pressure now than he was four years ago. The problem is: A) He's still not within a galaxy of his own standards; B) He's pressured on about 70 more passes than he was four years ago; and C) He is now 38 years old (39 in August), not 34, and every hit causes a lump in New England's collective throat.

Additionally, no one knows how Jimmy Garoppolo will respond to the pass rush if he really is forced to start New England's first four games.

Depressurizing Brady (Hush)

No team wants its quarterback pressured 174 times in a season. The Patriots remember the AFC Championship Game. They know they have a problem. And they are taking steps to solve it:

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

• Nate Solder's return from a bicep injury should solve two problems. He can stabilize left tackle while Sebastian Vollmer moves from left to right tackle, which was a real hot spot for pressures last year. Backup tackles Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming and Bryan Stork (who slid over from center for a few games) combined for eight sacks last year, according to Pro Football Focus.
• Newcomers at guard Jonathan Cooper and third-round pick Joe Thuney arrive with a hefty price tag: The Patriots traded Chandler Jones and his 12.5 sacks to get them. They will compete with a large cast of irregulars (Shaq Mason, Tre' Jackson and others) for the right to protect Brady up the middle.
• Dante Scarnecchia returned as offensive line coach after two seasons as a part-time consultant, replacing Dave DeGuglielmo.
• The Patriots upgraded their skill-position depth by signing veterans Martellus Bennett, Nate Washington and Chris Hogan, then adding Malcolm Mitchell and Devin Lucien in the draft. Position battles at wide receiver for the Patriots are unpredictable, but with so many bodies to choose from, Brady won't be stuck loitering in the pocket waiting for Aaron Dobson to develop if injuries once again claim some of his top targets.

That's the good news. The bad news is that Solder and Vollmer were held out of minicamp. It was probably precautionary (the Patriots aren't exactly forthcoming with injury information), but the sight of LaAdrian Waddle at left tackle and Cannon at right tackle with the first team was not exactly encouraging. Also, Cooper was an injury-plagued disappointment for three seasons with a good Cardinals organization, and since Logan Mankins left, the Patriots have been groping for answers at both guard positions and center.

Coaching shakeups. Daring trades. Some better injury luck. Perhaps it's enough to reverse the trend, keep the beefed-up defensive lines of the AFC East off Brady's (and Garoppolo's) back for another Super Bowl run and make sure Brady stays healthy until he's ready to retire in 2036. Or maybe the Patriots are out of ideas on the offensive line and Brady is losing just the teensy-tiny bit of quickness he needs to compensate for iffy protection. Maybe Garoppolo never gets the time he needs to get comfortable. Heck, maybe Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Ndamukong Suh and Rex Ryan's marauders will finally cause the fall of Rome.

There's an awful lot at stake for the Patriots' pass protection. But hey, no pressure.

(Note: Pro Football Focus lists higher pressure totals for Brady and all other NFL quarterbacks than Football Outsiders. Both services use a thorough vetting process, so the difference clearly derives from the definition of a "pressure." Passing stats under pressure are much better for quarterbacks at PFF than at Football Outsiders, a sign that one organization is using a broader definition of the term than the other. At any rate, PFF also shows Brady experiencing a significant spike in pressure in 2015 with 235 pressured passes, his highest total on record.)

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at @MikeTanier.