Keith Thurman vs. Shawn Porter: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
It will be a clash between young, welterweight lions this Saturday night in Brooklyn, New York, when undefeated WBA champion Keith Thurman defends his belt against Shawn Porter. This showdown is one of the year's most anticipated fights.
Porter and Thurman are both well shy of 30 and at the top of their professional prowess. They are both top five in the welterweight division.
The winner will take a big step toward becoming a true superstar.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Keith Thurman | Shawn Porter |
| Record: | 26-0, 22 KOs | 26-1-1, 16 KOs |
| Height: | 5'7.5" | 5'7" |
| Reach: | 69" | 69.5" |
| Weight: | 147 lbs | 147 lbs |
| Age: | 27 | 28 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Clearwater, Florida | Akron, Ohio |
| Rounds: | 112 | 162 |
Thurman and Porter list as close to identical in size, but Thurman has always looked longer to me and Porter much more compact. Thurman has the higher knockout percentage, which is why Porter has fought 50 more rounds with just two more bouts.
A week after LeBron James dominated in the NBA Finals and brought a title home to Cleveland, Porter will also represent Akron, Ohio, in a championship contest.
Main Storylines
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Technically speaking, this is a world-title fight, as the WBA recognizes Thurman as their welterweight champion. But in truth, there is no true champion at 147 pounds. Not a single one of the alphabet-soup belts in that division can be traced back to anything like a legitimate world champion.
What we have instead right now are four competing claims. Thurman's is not significantly better or worse than the other three.
Thurman has very good stoppage wins over contenders like Diego Chaves and Luis Collazo. He won shutout decisions over Robert Guerrero and previously unbeaten Leonard Bundu.
He's looked very good against some quality fighters, but he's yet to record a true, signature win that establishes him as a genuine star.
Porter is in much the same place in his career. He's the former IBF champion, though he lost the belt in August 2014 to Kell Brook. His best wins are a Round 4 stoppage of Paulie Malignaggi and decisions over Devon Alexander and Adrien Broner.
This is exactly the kind of fight the sport needs—two of the division's best fighters, both in their prime, stepping in the ring together to see who deserves to move up the food chain.
Strengths
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Keith Thurman is a very good boxer-puncher. He has quick hands and power in both fists. He throws a very good variety of punches and counters well.
Like many very good punchers, Thurman is particularly effective at seeing an opening and reacting to it.
Shawn Porter is a rugged, bruising fighter on the inside. He's a busy, relentless worker who simply out-hustles opponents in spots throughout a fight.
He has a great amateur background and very good boxing skills, but he combines that technical prowess with pure physicality. He uses his boxing intelligence to control a fight's tempo and to maul opponents.
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Weaknesses
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Keith Thurman has a tendency to open himself up too much when he is on the attack. When he smells blood he throws wide punches and leaves a lot of room to get countered. Luis Collazo was able to sting him badly with a body shot in his last fight.
Thurman also has a habit of leaving his hands low on the outside. That could be risky with an opponent like Porter, who can close distance in a hurry.
Shawn Porter is so committed to coming forward, he sometimes drops his hands too soon and leaves himself open to very basic punches. Kell Brook had great success drilling Porter all night long with a jab-cross combination.
Keith Thurman Will Win If...
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Thurman needs to keep this fight on the outside, so he can fully exploit his hand speed and power. To do that, he's going to need to establish a busy jab and use it to set up his straight right.
Thurman needs to make sure he's moving laterally, instead of straight backward. If he simply backs away, Porter will come forward and crowd him.
Porter is very likely to find his way inside and, when he does, Thurman will want to rely on the uppercut, which was a very effective punch for Kell Brook, when he defeated Porter in 2014.
Thurman has to be prepared to fight every second of every round. He needs to stay in a solid defensive posture, even when he seems to be out of range, because Porter is very good at closing distance quickly.
Shawn Porter Will Win If...
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I don't think Porter has the hand speed and power to fight with Thurman on the outside. Beyond that, Porter is at his best in close range. So he's going to need to get inside against Thurman.
He'll need to do a better job closing distance than he did against Kell Brook in 2014. In that fight, he dropped his hands too soon coming forward and was stung by stiff jabs and hard, straight rights.
Porter is going to need to use very quick level changes and head movement to work his way in on Thurman. A very good punch combination for him will be a push jab, followed by a right to the body.
Porter is going to want to target Thurman's body in order to slow down his movement. Porter's best chance to win this fight is to hang tough early and then outwork Thurman in the second half of the fight.
Prediction
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I've been going back and forth on who I envision winning this fight since long before it was even announced. It's very easy for me to see either man getting his hand raised on Saturday night.
In the end, I've decided to go with Porter. I think we will see a competitive, action fight with two distinct halfs. Thurman will score well early and win the majority of the first six rounds.
But I predict Porter will work Thurman's body, even as he's dropping rounds. In the second half of the bout, the fight will shift to Porter's terrain, on the inside.
I do expect very close scorecards and perhaps a contested decision.
No matter which man wins Saturday night, it is time for some unification bouts at welterweight. The winner of this fight against WBC belt holder, Danny Garcia, makes a lot of sense, given the fact they are all PBC fighters.
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