Pat Day Mile 2016: Post Time, Odds, Predictions for Entire Field
The Pat Day Mile used to be named the Derby Trial Stakes, but it was changed to pay tribute to the race's eponymous Churchill Downs jockey who racked up 2,482 wins at the pristine track in his career.
Last year marked the first time the Grade 3 showcase was named for Day and consisted of eight horses. The 2016 edition is worth $250,000 and features 14 entries, per BloodHorse.com's Evan Hammonds.
Post time for the Pat Day Mile, one of Saturday's races on the Kentucky Derby undercard in Louisville, Kentucky, is slated for 4:25 p.m. ET and is the 10th race of the day, as reported by Horse Racing Nation.
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Check out the complete odds for the field of 14 below, followed by a preview of what to expect in the 92nd running of Saturday's showcase.
| 1 | Discreetness | William H. Fires | Jon Kenton Court | 12-1 | 13th |
| 2 | Ralis | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 10-1 | 4th |
| 3 | Torrontes | Kellyn Gorder | Sophie Doyle | 30-1 | 12th |
| 4 | Gray Sky | D. Wayne Lukas | Channing Hill | 15-1 | 6th |
| 5 | Imperial Hint | Luis Carvajal Jr. | Antonio A. Gallardo | 15-1 | 8th |
| 6 | Sharp Azteca | Jorge Navarro | Edgard Zayas | 8-1 | 10th |
| 7 | Forevamo | Albert M. Stall Jr. | Florent Geroux | 6-1 | 3rd |
| 8 | American Dubai | Rodney C. Richards | Francisco C. Torres | 20-1 | 11th |
| 9 | Fellowship | Mark E. Casse | Jose Lezcano | 5-1 | 1st |
| 10 | Cocked and Loaded | Larry Rivelli | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 6-1 | 7th |
| 11 | American Freedom | Bob Baffert | Javier Castellano | 6-1 | 5th |
| 12 | Unbridled Outlaw | Dale Romans | Victor Espinoza | 5-1 | 2nd |
| 13 | Star Hill | George R. Arnold Jr. | Corey J. Lanerie | 10-1 | 9th |
| 14 | Lookin For a Kiss | Michael A. Tomlinson | Pascacio Lopez | 50-1 | 14th |
2016 Pat Day Mile Preview
Fellowship headlined as the morning-line favorite at 5-1 along with Unbridled Outlaw, thanks largely to a stellar showing at the Grade 1 Florida Derby in which he finished third ahead of the previously undefeated Mohaymen.
Kentucky Derby favorite Nyquist won that race at Gulfstream Park, and the runner-up was another Run for the Roses entrant in Majesto. That obviously bodes well for Fellowship against lesser competition in the Pat Day Mile.
Trainer Mark Casse considered entering Fellowship in the Kentucky Derby all the way up to Wednesday, but views the Pat Day Mile as an ideal tuneup for the next leg of the Triple Crown, per the Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch:
"[Fellowship is] ready to run, he's been training extremely well, and we couldn't take a chance we wouldn't get into the Derby. We're going to use the Pat Day Mile as a prep for the Preakness. A mile is a little short for him, but hopefully there will be enough speed in the race to help us.
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In addition to the in-the-money finish at the Florida Derby, Fellowship also ran third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Holy Bull Stakes, both of which are Grade 2 races.
As for Unbridled Outlaw, he was 11th in the Arkansas Derby—a far worse showing in a top-tier showcase than Fellowship had. Even with Triple Crown-winning jockey Victor Espinoza in the irons, the inconsistency Unbridled Outlaw has shown is staggering. He was 12th in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but has a win, a second and two thirds in his other four starts.
Unbridled Outlaw's only positive piece of history at Churchill Downs was a third-place effort at the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in September 2015. It's not a lot to go on, suggesting Fellowship is the far superior 5-1 wager.
The trainer-jockey tandem of Doug O'Neill and Mario Gutierrez are joined together for Nyquist in the Derby, and will hope to do something special in the Pat Day Mile with 10-1 morning-line bet Ralis.
Ever since a Grade 1 win in the Hopeful at Saratoga as a two-year-old last September, though, Ralis has struggled to find his form. His most recent start was his best since—a fifth-place effort at the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes.
This provides an idea of how favored Fellowship should be despite the suggestion from oddsmakers that he has several prominent challengers.
Among the three horses listed at 6-1, Forevamo gets points in oddsmakers' eyes likely due to his pedigree. He's a relative of Nyquist and was sired by Uncle Mo. However, Forevamo has only one win in seven starts, including a fifth-place effort at the Louisiana Derby, which he ran in late March.
Pedigree only takes a horse so far if he hasn't proved himself on the track, though. Other than Unbridled Outlaw having a good day—not a dependable outcome to project based on his history—the 2016 Pat Day Mile appears to be Fellowship's to lose.
Stats courtesy of Horse Racing Nation.
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