Is Josh Norman Worth $16 Million a Year?

Josh Norman is a 28-year-old first-team All-Pro cornerback in his prime. He's coming off a season in which he intercepted four passes and scored two touchdowns while playing nearly every snap for a Carolina Panthers team that won 15 regular-season games and went to the Super Bowl.

It's clear he has gotten better in each of his first four NFL seasons, and his grades from Pro Football Focus support that perception. Per PFF, opposing quarterbacks posted a league-low passer rating of 54.0 when throwing at Norman in 2015. They completed just 51.0 percent of their passes and averaged just 9.3 yards per completion. Only Arizona Cardinals stud Patrick Peterson surrendered fewer yards per cover snap.

Cornerback	Rating
1. Josh Norman	54.0
2. Trumaine Johnson	55.0
3. Darrelle Revis	56.5
4. Quinten Rollins	58.4
5. Adam Jones	60.7
6. Patrick Peterson	61.8

So it wasn't surprising to see the Panthers slap Norman with the franchise tag before he had a chance to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, meaning that if the team and the corner can't strike a long-term deal before July 15, Norman will be paid $13.95 million for a single season of service in 2016. 

It also wasn't surprising to hear that, according to Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer, the two sides "are nowhere close to a long-term contract" and that Norman and his representatives are "looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $16 million a year."

Strictly speaking, a $16 million salary would make Norman the highest-paid defensive back in the NFL. But NFL contracts are complicated, and this situation is complex. Before determining Norman's worth, let's break that down. 

A $16 Million Salary Wouldn't Tell the Whole Story

First, we have to consider the strong possibility that somebody is posturing. For what it's worth, Norman's agent, Mike George, told Bleacher Report on Tuesday that the $16 million number reported by Person didn't come from him or his client. Still, logically, if you think you're worth $14 million a year—which is what fellow superstars Darrelle Revis, Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman all make—then you'd be crazy not to start a little higher.

Cornerback	Age	Average salary
1. Darrelle Revis	30	14.02
2. Patrick Peterson	25	14.01
3. Richard Sherman	27	14.00
4. Trumaine Johnson	26	13.95
4. Josh Norman	28	13.95
6. Joe Haden	26	13.50

But let's also consider that there's a big difference between a three-year, $48 million contract and a five-year, $80 million deal, especially if the ratio of guaranteed money doesn't change dramatically from contract to contract. 

The guarantee is the most important factor in every NFL contract, and there are no clues right now as to what type of guarantee Norman is seeking.

Key comparisons: 

• Revis, who is two years older than Norman but has been to six more Pro Bowls, is entering the second season of a five-year, $70 million deal that includes $39 million guaranteed. 
• Peterson, who is three years younger than Norman and has been to four more Pro Bowls, is entering the first season of a five-year, $70 million extension (signed two years ago) that includes $47.4 million guaranteed.
• Sherman, who is a year younger than Norman and has been to two more Pro Bowls, is entering the second season of a four-year, $56 million contract (signed two years ago) that includes $40 million guaranteed. 

Since Person reported that "Norman and his agent want the security of a long-term deal," you'd have to think that they are expecting at least $40 million guaranteed as well. And since there isn't a single contract in football worth more than $30 million with more than 80 percent guaranteed, that would almost automatically mean that Norman would be seeking at least a four-year, $64 million contract (presumably with $40-50 million guaranteed). 

So we can deduce that if the $16 million report is true, Norman is at least pushing to be the undisputed top moneymaker at the cornerback position. 

Digging Deeper

Is he worth it? On the surface, it wouldn't appear so.

Again, Norman is less accomplished than all three of the corners making $14 million, and he's younger than only one of them. He did put together a remarkable 2015 season, but it was the first time in his career that he started all 16 games. He made his first Pro Bowl and earned his first All-Pro nod, but it's fair to ask whether he's just a late bloomer or whether he's simply a fifth-round pick from an obscure school (Coastal Carolina) who had a great but somewhat aberrational season. 

I say "somewhat aberrational" because he was also good in 2014, giving up completions on only 46.6 percent of the throws he was targeted on and holding opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 53.2. But he didn't emerge until November that year and didn't consistently face top receivers. 

It's also worth noting that his play tailed off a little late last season. He didn't surrender a single catch in the Super Bowl, but he struggled in the weeks leading up to that game. 

During the first 12 weeks of the 2015 season, Norman allowed completions on only 47 percent of his targets and gave up only 24.7 yards per game in coverage. But over the next six weeks, he was beaten 64 percent of the time, and he gave up 36.2 yards per game. 

During the regular-season portion of that span, Pro Football Focus graded him as the fourth-worst cornerback among 106 qualified players at the position. That's a little extreme, and facing guys like Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jermaine Kearse is never good from an analytical standpoint, but it's still a little concerning that Norman has yet to string together one entirely strong season in coverage. 

Cornerback	Grade
Brandon Browner	-9.3
Justin Bethel	-6.9
Tracy Porter	-6.3
Josh Norman	-5.9
Lamarcus Joyner	-5.6

Because he didn't appear on the national radar until recently, there also seems to be a perception that Norman is young. But again, he's older than Peterson and Sherman, as well as high-end corners Trumaine Johnson, Joe Haden, Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Harris. He came into the league as a 24-year-old and will turn 29 in 2016. 

With that in mind, you can't blame the Panthers if they think twice before giving him a long-term deal worth more than the $14 million they'd owe him under the franchise tag. 

Times Are Changing

Still, Norman is on a path. His career trajectory is extremely promising, and he's got a lot of tread on his NFL tires. There's a very strong chance he'll continue to get better. But the key for Norman might simply be the fact that Peterson and Sherman signed their respective extensions in 2014, when the salary cap was $133 million. Since then, it has risen by $22 million to $155 million. 

That type of inflation alone indicates players are worth 17 percent more now than they would have been in 2014 and eight percent more than they would have been when Revis signed his monster contract with the Jets in 2015. 

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

So if Norman were considered to be as valuable as Peterson, Sherman and Revis—and his 2015 performance indicates he should at least be in that range—he'd be owed a contract worth approximately $16.4 million per year. 

It seems high, but consider what the market has become. Thus far this offseason, we've seen quarterback Brock Osweiler sign a four-year, $72 million contract with $37 million guaranteed despite the fact he's started just seven NFL games.

We've seen defensive lineman Malik Jackson sign a five-year, $85.5 million contract with $42 million guaranteed despite the fact he's never been to a Pro Bowl. We've seen pass-rusher Olivier Vernon sign a five-year, $85 million contract with $52.5 million guaranteed despite the fact he has only 14 sacks in 32 starts the last two years and has also never made a Pro Bowl. 

Had he not been hit with the franchise tag, Norman might have landed a deal like one of those. And the reality is that the market should continue to rise as league revenue continues to skyrocket, which means the Panthers would be taking a huge risk by low-balling Norman with a long-term offer that doesn't pay him similarly to Peterson, Sherman and Revis. 

If that happens and Norman instead makes just under $14 million under the tag in 2016, there's a decent chance that he'll be worth even more than $16 million next offseason, even if he doesn't perform quite as well as he did in 2015. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon