Syracuse Orange vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, Final Four Pick

Two ACC teams will meet Saturday in the Final Four for the right to play in the national championship game, but you would expect only one of them to be here. The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (32-6) won the East Regional and will take on the 10th-seeded Syracuse Orange (23-13) out of the Midwest as consensus favorites at the sportsbooks. North Carolina won both meetings with Syracuse this season, going 1-1 against the spread and failing to cover at home.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 149, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 72.6-64.6 Tar Heels

Why pick Syracuse to cover the spread

The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and played the Tar Heels extremely tough in the last meeting at Chapel Hill on February 29. They had the unenviable task of playing North Carolina on senior night and trailed just 69-68 with two minutes, 24 seconds remaining in an eventual 75-70 loss as 12.5-point road underdogs.

Syracuse also found a way to upset the defending national champion Duke Blue Devils 64-62 as 11.5-point road dogs on January 18, so this team is not afraid of any opponent, no matter where the game is played or how much is on the line. That would help explain how the Orange got to Houston as the first No. 10 seed to ever make it to the Final Four.

Like it has done in each of the previous four rounds of the Big Dance, the vaunted 2-3 zone defense has the potential to give North Carolina fits and keep this one close until the very end.

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread

The Tar Heels have had the easiest road to the Final Four, mainly because they did not have to face a team seeded higher than No. 5 in the East. They also made it look easy by winning all of their games by double digits, taking close games and turning them into routs with their explosive offense, much like the NBA’s Golden State Warriors. Syracuse simply cannot keep up with North Carolina in a fast-paced game, the kind that has led to the over cashing in three of four tourney games so far for the latter.

The Heels also have two seniors in Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson who are difference-makers and can give the Orange problems offensively and defensively. Paige has the potential to break down the zone with his three-point shooting like he did against the fifth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers in a 101-86 victory in the Sweet 16, in which Paige made six of nine from beyond the arc en route to scoring 21 points. Meanwhile, Johnson’s ability to protect the rim could keep Michael Gbinije, Trevor Cooney and Malachi Richardson from taking the ball to the basket. The talent advantage North Carolina possesses in this matchup is massive.

Smart betting pick

In the two previous meetings, Paige made only three of 18 shots, including two of 13 from three-point range, for a total of nine points. That is a huge deal heading into this game because the Orange will bait the Heels into shooting from the outside early on like they always do, making them rely too much on the three-pointer. North Carolina ranked last in the ACC this season in three-point shooting, and that will finally come into play. The Heels are just 2-4 straight up and ATS in their past four Final Four appearances, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database, so look for Syracuse to cover.

March Madness betting trends

Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games against North Carolina.

North Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.

Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.

Syracuse is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games after winning as an underdog.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.