Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

Virginia continued its great moneymaking run with a victory/cover over Iowa State on Friday, giving the Cavaliers eight covers in their last nine games. Syracuse, meanwhile, after a come-from-behind win over Gonzaga, is 6-1 against the spread over its previous seven outings. In an all-ACC Midwest Region final, the Cavs battle the Orange on Sunday evening in Chicago.

Point spread: The Cavaliers opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 123, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 69.0-63.2 Cavaliers

Why pick Syracuse to cover the spread?

Probably the most unlikely of the teams left in the tournament, Syracuse is a win away from its second Final Four in the last four seasons after rallying to beat Gonzaga on Friday night, 63-60. The Orange trailed almost the entire game, and by nine points with seven minutes to go, but ended the contest with a 15-3 run to steal the victory outright as four-point underdogs.

On the night, Syracuse only shot 36 percent from the floor but held the Bulldogs, one of the best shooting teams in the country, to just 44 percent and won the turnover battle, 15-9.

So through their first three games of this Big Dance, the Orange are allowing an average of just 53 points per outing. Finally, while Syracuse lost by eight in Charlottesville back in January, it hung tough enough to cover rather easily as a 10-point underdog.

Why pick Virginia to cover the spread?

The top-seeded Cavaliers are now one win away from their first Final Four berth since 1984 after topping Iowa State on Friday night, 84-71. UVA grabbed an early double-digit lead, allowed the Cyclones to get within seven points with about 14 minutes left in the game, then pulled away and held on for the victory and the cover as six-point favorites on the college basketball odds.

For the night, the Cavs shot a strong 56 percent from the field, outrebounded ISU 33-24 and turned the ball over just eight times.

So Virginia is now 8-1 both straight up and ATS over its last nine games, the only loss coming by four points in the ACC tournament championship game against fellow Elite Eight qualifier North Carolina. Finally, the Cavaliers won the only meeting against Syracuse this season, 73-65, back in January, their third straight victory over the Orange.

Smart betting pick

Virginia may very well win this game outright, but that spread seems inflated, especially for a pair of defensive-minded conference rivals that have already played one close contest this season. The smart pick here is the Orange, plus the points.

March Madness betting trends

Syracuse is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games after winning as an underdog.

Virginia is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.

Virginia is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games against its conference.

Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games against Virginia.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.