Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: Odds, March Madness Pick

The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (31-6) will attempt to make it back to the Final Four by winning Sunday's East Regional final without having to beat a team better than a No. 5 when they face a familiar foe in the sixth-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-11).

The Tar Heels are coming off a 101-86 rout of the fifth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers as five-point favorites in the Sweet 16 on Friday, and they are consensus chalk for a third meeting with the Fighting Irish.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 156, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 77.6-63.6 Tar Heels

Why pick Notre Dame to cover the spread

Notre Dame upset North Carolina 80-76 as a three-point home underdog February 6 and has won three of the past four meetings straight up. They have also covered the spread in four of the past five, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database.

These teams know each other very well, with the last meeting taking place in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. While the Fighting Irish lost that game badly 78-47 as seven-point underdogs, they were the defending ACC tournament champs going in after upsetting the Tar Heels in the championship game as 3.5-point dogs a year ago.

The key for Notre Dame will be slowing down the pace of the game and limiting the number of possessions in an effort to keep this game close. The Irish improved to 9-1 SU and 7-3 against the spread in games decided by seven points or fewer with a 61-56 win over the Wisconsin Badgers as 1.5-point faves in the Sweet 16.

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread

North Carolina is riding an eight-game winning streak into the Elite Eight with a 6-2 record ATS. Only one of the team's last five covers was not decided by double digits, a 61-57 victory against the Virginia Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites in the ACC tournament title game.

Unlike Notre Dame, the Tar Heels will want to push the tempo again after averaging 89.7 points in their first three games of the NCAA tournament. In the win over Indiana, all five starters scored in double figures, led by seniors Marcus Paige with 21 points and Brice Johnson with 20. Johnson has also been a beast defensively in the tourney, averaging nine rebounds and 4.3 blocks to make a case for Most Outstanding Player honors if the Heels cut down the nets on April 4.

The way they are playing now, that is a favorable scenario considering their familiarity with their opponents to get there.

Smart betting pick

Notre Dame made it to the Midwest Regional final in last year's Big Dance and lost to the top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats 68-66 as 11-point dogs. This is a similar situation for the Irish, only this time around, they know their opponent a lot better.

North Carolina has yet to be tested outside of leading the 16th-seeded Florida Gulf Coast Eagles 41-40 at halftime in the first round. However, this will be a bigger challenge than any of the previous three games for the Heels regardless of the point spread, so expect a tight game and a fantastic finish, likely ending with them winning but failing to cover.

March Madness betting trends

Notre Dame is 29-12 SU in its last 41 games against its conference.

North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

North Carolina is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against teams with winning records.

Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against North Carolina.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.