Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

The two best teams in the South Region will square off Saturday night in Louisville, Kentucky, when the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks (33-4) meet the second-seeded Villanova Wildcats (32-5). These teams combined to spend seven weeks atop the AP Top 25 poll during the regular season, with the Jayhawks also entering the NCAA tournament at No. 1.

Kansas is a consensus favorite versus Villanova in this Elite Eight matchup and will be looking to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 2012, while the Wildcats last appeared there in 2009.

Point spread: The Jayhawks opened as two-point favorites; the total was 147, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 70.7-70.5 Jayhawks

Why pick Villanova to cover the spread

Offensively, no team has been better in the Big Dance than Villanova through the first three rounds. The Wildcats have scored 86 points or more in each game and shot 62.7 percent from the field in a 92-69 rout of the third-seeded Miami Hurricanes in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, easily covering the spread as four-point favorites.

Ryan Arcidiacono and Kris Jenkins scored 21 points apiece against Miami, and the team remains focused on making up for past disappointments in the tournament, including the last two years with second-round losses as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively. Villanova is a perfect 3-0 against the spread in the tourney, beating opponents by an average of 24 points.

Why pick Kansas to cover the spread

Like the Wildcats, the Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament, but they also bring a 17-game winning streak into this meeting. They have failed to cover the spread only three times during this stretch, but still won those games by an average of nearly seven points. The Baylor Bears came the closest to upsetting Kansas in a 70-66 loss as seven-point underdogs in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament.

Senior forward Perry Ellis is the front-runner to win Most Outstanding Player honors as well after tying a season high with 27 points against the Maryland Terrapins on Thursday, leading the Jayhawks to a 79-63 victory as 5.5-point favorites. The experience and leadership of Ellis has been a key for Kansas as the favorite to cut down the nets.

Smart betting pick

As good as the Jayhawks have been under head coach Bill Self, they are just 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS on the college basketball betting lines in five Elite Eight appearances. Villanova’s Jay Wright has only been to this round twice before, going 1-1 SU and ATS, but he has been at the school since 2001 and led the Wildcats to their first-ever No. 1 ranking this season. This is Wright’s best team yet, and they seem poised to beat the odds and upset Kansas.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone over in 10 of Villanova's last 12 games.

Villanova is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games as underdogs in March.

Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as favorites.

Kansas is 5-1 SU in its last six games against the Big East.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.