Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Syracuse Orange Betting Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

It's only happened twice before in NCAA tournament history that a No. 10 seed and a No. 11 seed have met, and both times the No. 11 seed won and covered. Might that bode well for the 11th-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs headed into their Midwest Region semifinal against the 10th-seeded Syracuse Orange on Friday night in Chicago?

Point spread: The Bulldogs opened as five-point favorites; the total was 134, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 73.8-66.4, Bulldogs

Why pick Gonzaga to cover the spread

The Zags are back in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season after bombing the Utah Utes on Saturday, 82-59. Gonzaga jumped out to a 15-point halftime lead, then pushed that to 30 at one point in the second half, on its way to an easy cover as a two-point favorite. On the night, the Bulldogs shot 56 percent from the field, held the Utes to just 42 percent shooting and won the battle on the glass, 34-24.

Gonzaga opened the Big Dance last Thursday with a convincing 68-52 victory over the Seton Hall Pirates, a team that had been playing some great ball as of late. The Zags have won and covered each of their last seven games. For the season, Gonzaga is shooting 49 percent from the floor, 38 percent from long range and 76 percent from the line, all great marks for a college team.

Why pick Syracuse to cover the spread

The Orange lost five of their last six regular season games and, at 19-13, looked like they might miss the Big Dance. But pedigree still counts in college basketball; not only is Syracuse in this tournament, it's in the Sweet 16 after mugging the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders on Sunday, 75-50.

The Orange led the Blue Raiders by four points at the half and fell down by a bucket early in the second half, but they ended the game on a 44-17 run, pulling away late for an easy cover as six-point favorites. For the night, Syracuse shot 55 percent from the field, including 8-for-20 from three-point land, while holding Middle Tennessee to just 30 percent shooting.

Two days previous, the Orange opened this NCAA tournament with a 70-51 win over the Dayton Flyers, easily covering the one-point spread on the college basketball betting lines. Syracuse is coming off its best back-to-back efforts in over a month.

Smart betting pick

Syracuse should consider itself lucky to be here. It was lucky to make the tournament in the first place before only having to play a seventh seed and a No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16. But that Orange zone defense has proven itself a puzzler tournament after tournament, especially for teams unfamiliar with it. The smart money here sides with Syracuse, plus the points.

March Madness betting trends

Syracuse is 0-5 SU in its last five games as an underdog.

The total has gone over in Gonzaga's last seven games with a closing total of 135.0 or less.

Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of 4.5 or more.

Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last five games against teams with winning records.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.