Miami Hurricanes vs. Villanova Wildcats Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

The second-seeded Villanova Wildcats (31-5) will try to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since they made it to the Final Four in 2009 when they take on the third-seeded Miami Hurricanes (27-7) in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.

The Wildcats are consensus favorites at the sportsbooks for the South Regional matchup at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky, and they have won three of the past four meetings straight up and against the spread against their old Big East foe.

Point spread: The Wildcats opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 141.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 71.9-66.4 Wildcats

Why pick Miami to cover the spread?

While Miami has lost three of four to Villanova, they have not played each other since 2004. The Hurricanes are making their second NCAA tournament appearance under head coach Jim Larranaga, and they lost in this round as a No. 2 seed in 2013. However, this team appears to be better and has won six of its last eight against Big East opponents both SU and ATS.

Led by point guard Angel Rodriguez, the Hurricanes have won their first two games in the Big Dance by a combined 15 points, with Rodriguez averaging 26. If Miami has an edge in this matchup, it's in the backcourt with Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan.

Why pick Villanova to cover the spread?

The Wildcats won their first two games in dominant fashion, playing like the squad that was ranked No. 1 in the country for three weeks earlier this season. Their average margin of victory so far in the tourney is 24.5 points, and they have now covered the spread in two straight after going 1-4 ATS in their previous five, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database.

Villanova is also 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing teams with winning records, and the Hurricanes have never advanced past the Sweet 16 previously. While the Wildcats disappointed last year as a No. 1 seed by losing in the second round, they seem poised to make a deep run here.

Smart betting pick

Past history means little this time around, as the two teams have not met in more than a decade. Experience matters, though, which is why Villanova is worth backing in this spot.

Miami has not played in the Big Dance since 2013, but this is the fourth straight year in the tournament for the Wildcats, who have reached the Elite Eight twice under head coach Jay Wright. Look for them to get there again with a win and cover against the 'Canes.

March Madness betting trends

Miami is 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against Villanova.

Villanova is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games against teams with winning records.

The total has gone over in six of Villanova's last eight games in March.

Miami is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games against the Big East.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.