Duke Blue Devils vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Playing as one of the betting public's favorite teams, Duke is just 2-6-1 against the spread over its last nine games. The Blue Devils nearly blew a cover against Yale over the weekend and will probably go off as underdogs when they meet Oregon in a West Regional Sweet 16 matchup Thursday night in Anaheim, California.

Point spread: The Ducks opened as two-point favorites; the total was 156.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 82.3-68.6 Ducks

Why pick Duke to cover the spread?

The fourth-seeded Blue Devils—at-large invitees after going 12-8 in an ACC conference that sends six teams to the Sweet 16—reached the second weekend of this NCAA tournament by holding off UNC-Wilmington last Thursday, 93-85, then doing the same to Yale on Saturday, 71-64.

Duke bolted out to a 27-point lead on the Bulldogs in the first half and allowed Yale to rally all the way back to within three points with 40 seconds to go. But the Blue Devils hit four of five free throws from there to not only secure the victory, but also cover the spread as a six-point favorite.

On the afternoon, thanks mainly to a hot first half, the Blue Devils shot 46 percent from the field, made 11 of 23 shots from beyond the arc and held the Bulldogs to just 39 percent shooting. Two days before that, Duke shot 54 percent from the field in its tournament-opening victory over the Seahawks. If the Blue Devils can shoot somewhere around 50 percent Thursday, they'll be in good shape.

Why pick Oregon to cover the spread?

The top-seeded Ducks, dual champions in the Pac-12 this season, reached this Sweet 16 by bombing Holy Cross last Friday, 91-52, then rallying to beat Saint Joseph's Sunday, 69-64. Oregon led the Hawks by 10 points early in the second half, fell down by seven with five minutes to go but ended the game on an 18-6 run to escape the upset bid.

On the night, the Ducks only shot 40 percent from the field, but they made 21 of 25 free throws and limited St. Joe's to just 39 percent shooting. Two days previous, Oregon shot 56 percent from the floor while covering a 22-point spread against the Crusaders. So the Ducks have now won 10 games in a row, going 6-4 ATS in the process and hitting the 80-point mark six times.

Smart betting pick

Oregon comes in as the hot outfit, riding a 10-game winning streak, while the Blue Devils are only 5-4 over their last nine games and almost choked one away against Yale. The smart money here digs the Ducks.

March Madness betting trends

Oregon is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with winning records.

Duke is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.

The total has gone under in nine of Duke's last 12 games.

No. 1 seeds are 21-7 straight up against No. 4 seeds since and including 2000.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.