Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Villanova Wildcats Betting Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Two teams that have not reached the Sweet 16 in their previous five NCAA tournament appearances will meet in the second round of the South Region when the second-seeded Villanova Wildcats (30-5) take on the seventh-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes (22-10) Sunday.

The Wildcats are consensus betting favorites at the sportsbooks and will face an Iowa team that is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games.

Point spread: The Wildcats opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 145.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 73.9-61.6 Wildcats

Why pick Iowa to cover the spread

Despite their struggles both straight up and against the spread lately, the Hawkeyes proved they could bounce back from adversity when they pulled off a 72-70 overtime victory against the Temple Owls in the first round Friday.

They failed to cover the spread as seven-point chalk but beat the Michigan Wolverines 71-61 on the road the last time they were underdogs on March 5. Iowa remains a talented team that played in the rugged Big Ten, which should only help it in this spot versus Villanova.

Why pick Villanova to cover the spread

The Wildcats have lost in this round each of the past two seasons, and the last time they advanced to the Sweet 16 they ended up going all the way to the Final Four in 2009.

That team was a No. 3 seed, and No. 2 seeds are 13-3 straight up in their last 16 games against No. 7 seeds, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database. They are also 4-3 against the spread in the last seven matchups, with the Hawkeyes falling to the Gonzaga Bulldogs 87-68 as six-point underdogs last year.

Villanova was a No. 1 seed last year when the team was upset in the second round and will be extra motivated this time.

Smart betting pick

While the Wildcats should be primed for another big win after they had a much easier time in the first round, they are just 1-4 against the spread as favorites of seven points or less, losing the last two to the Seton Hall Pirates and Xavier Musketeers.

Iowa also has a couple of tough individual matchups for Villanova with Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok, who combined for 39 points against the Owls and will help their team cover the spread here.

March Madness betting trends

Villanova is 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Iowa is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games.

Iowa is 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five games after consecutive against-the-spread losses.

No. 2 seeds are 13-3 in their last 16 games against No. 7 seeds.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.