Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Syracuse Orange: Odds, March Madness Pick

The 15th-seeded Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (25-9) look to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time ever when they battle the 10th-seeded Syracuse Orange (20-13) in a second-round Midwest Regional matchup Sunday.

The Orange are consensus betting favorites at the sportsbooks, while the Blue Raiders are 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games as underdogs in March.

Point spread: The Orange opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 133, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 73.2-62.8 Blue Raiders

Why pick Middle Tennessee to cover the spread

Middle Tennessee pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history with a 90-81 victory versus the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans as 16.5-point dogs on Friday. That win will give the Blue Raiders a ton of confidence playing a Syracuse team that had lost five of six heading into the Big Dance.

Led by junior Reggie Upshaw (21 points against Michigan State) and sophomore Giddy Potts (19), they are obviously not afraid of any opponent and have now won seven in a row, with a 6-1 mark ATS.

Why pick Syracuse to cover the spread

Many critics thought the Orange did not belong in the field of 68, but they proved otherwise with a 70-51 rout of the seventh-seeded Dayton Flyers. The talent is there on Jim Boeheim's team, and freshman Malachi Richardson showed that the future is bright in central New York with a game-high 21 points.

Three other starters also scored in double figures for Syracuse, including seniors Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney. The experience of Gbinije and coaching of Boeheim are advantages for the Orange.

Smart betting pick

History tells us that No. 15 seeds rarely advance past this round, as the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles are the only team to do so, back in 2013. In matchups between No. 10 and No. 15 seeds, the former is 3-0 all-time, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database. However, there is something about this Middle Tennessee squad that suggests bettors should be on upset alert.

Syracuse has lost five of its last six games in March and fell in this round two years ago as a No. 3 seed versus Dayton. The Orange may not lose this game, but the Blue Raiders will stay close enough to cover.

March Madness betting trends

Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as favorites.

Syracuse is 1-5 SU in its last six games in March.

Middle Tennessee is 7-0 SU in its last seven games.

Middle Tennessee is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games as underdogs in March.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.