Syracuse Orange vs. Dayton Flyers Betting Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The 10th-seeded Syracuse Orange (19-13) will look to avenge an upset loss to the seventh-seeded Dayton Flyers (25-7) in the Big Dance two years ago when they meet again in a Midwest Region first-round matchup Friday.

The Flyers defeated the Orange 55-53 as 8.5-point underdogs in the second round of the 2014 NCAA tournament en route to making it to the Elite Eight for the first time under head coach Archie Miller.

Point spread: The Orange opened as one-point favorites; the total was 131, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 72.9-63.5 Flyers

Why pick Syracuse to cover the spread

Syracuse closed out the regular season with four losses in five games before falling to the Pittsburgh Panthers for a third time in the ACC tournament. Still, the Orange managed to squeeze into the Big Dance for the first time since facing Dayton as a No. 3 seed after getting off to a school-record 25-0 start that year.

They banned themselves from the postseason last year due to academic issues but have new life here, led by seniors Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney. While many argue that the Orange should not be in the field, bubble teams often tend to prove they belong in the first round with wins.

Why pick Dayton to cover the spread

The Flyers are one of three Atlantic 10 teams in the Big Dance after losing to the St. Joseph’s Hawks as the top seed in the semifinals of their conference tournament. They finished in a three-way tie for first in the A-10 during the regular season at 14-4 and fell just short of reaching the tourney final with an 82-79 setback as 2.5-point favorites versus St. Joe’s.

Dayton is appearing in the NCAA tournament for the third year in a row with Miller at the helm and has not lost in the first round since 2004, when Brian Gregory was the head coach. The Flyers are 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven NCAA tourney games, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database.

Smart betting pick

With a low point spread like this, all you need to do is pick the winner. Taking Syracuse to pull out the victory may seem crazy considering how the team has played lately, but Gbinije will be the best player in this game and rise to the occasion. The Orange have not lost a first-round game in their previous six appearances in the Big Dance, so look for Jim Boeheim’s boys to continue that positive streak with a win.

March Madness betting trends

Dayton is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

Dayton is 25-5 SU in its last 30 games as favorites.

The total has gone over in six of Syracuse's last eight games.

Syracuse has played under in six of seven Madness games since 2013.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.