UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

The defending national champion Duke Blue Devils (23-10) will begin their quest for a second straight title as the fourth seed versus the 13th-seeded North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks (25-7) in the first round of the West Region.

The Blue Devils are consensus favorites versus the Seahawks and have gone 13-1 straight up and 8-6 against the spread as double-digit chalk this season, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database. 

Point spread: The Blue Devils opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 154.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 73.8-68.5 Seahawks

Why pick UNC Wilmington to cover the spread

The Seahawks tied for the Colonial Athletic Association regular-season title and won the tournament championship 80-73 in overtime as the second seed against the top-seeded Hofstra Pride. Wilmington was a two-point underdog in that game and improved to 5-1 ATS when getting points this year.

The Seahawks are also 4-2 SU under that scenario, but one of the losses came as comparable 10.5-point road dogs at the Georgetown Hoyas in an 87-82 defeat back on December 12. Of their seven losses, five were decided by five points or less, so they are capable of keeping this one close.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

Duke did not finish the regular season as head coach Mike Krzyzewski had hoped. It alternated wins and losses in the last six games before splitting a pair in the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils upset the North Carolina Tar Heels 74-73 as 8.5-point road dogs on February 17 for their biggest victory of the year to cap a five-game winning streak, but they proceeded to drop four of seven down the stretch with a 1-5-1 mark ATS.

Regardless, this remains a solid team under Krzyzewski that includes players like Grayson Allen who enjoyed the ride in 2015 and can build on that experience here.

Smart betting pick

While Duke lacks the depth of last season's squad, there is still more talent on this side than Wilmington. Some might think the Blue Devils are fade material based on how they have played over the past month, but bettors should not underestimate the heart of a champion in this spot, even if there are key pieces missing, such as Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow, who are all in the NBA now.

Look for Duke to cover the number in an easy win and improve to 14-1 SU and 9-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

March Madness betting trends

Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.

The total has gone under in eight of Duke's last 10 games.

UNC Wilmington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 9.5 points or more.

Duke is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when favored by seven or more points.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds-tracker app for iOS or Android.