
NCAA Basketball Tournament 2016: Predictions for Friday's 1st-Round Schedule
The second half of the March Madness opening salvo fires Friday, and it might just have the explosiveness to trump the opening day.
Friday features plenty of marquee matchups featuring major favorites such as Oregon and Michigan State, as well as some of the most popular upset picks around, including UNI and Stephen F. Austin.
After a bracket formed by a selection committee that knows exactly what it's doing, observers cannot expect anything less than a wild ride as perfectly paired teams square off with everything on the line.
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It's the perfect reason to drag your feet at work, if not take a day off. Most everyone will. Here's a look at predictions for Friday.
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Friday Predictions
| No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 12 South Dakota St. | Maryland |
| No. 4 California vs. No. 13 Hawaii | California |
| No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Temple | Temple |
| No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville | Villanova |
| No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 16 Holy Cross | Oregon |
| No. 8 Saint Joseph's vs. No. 9 Cincinnati | Cincinnati |
| No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 UNI | UNI |
| No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 14 Green Bay | Texas A&M |
| No. 7 Oregon St. vs. No. 10 VCU | Oregon St. |
| No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 CSU Bakersfield | Oklahoma |
| No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Michigan | Notre Dame |
| No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin | Stephen F. Austin |
| No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh | Wisconsin |
| No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 15 Weber St. | Xavier |
| No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Syracuse | Dayton |
| No. 2 Michigan St. vs. No. 15 Middle Tennessee | Michigan St. |
No. 8 Saint Joseph's vs. No. 9 Cincinnati
Talk about a physical matchup smack in the middle of a sea of shooting fests.
Saint Joseph's gets after it on the glass, averaging 39 boards per game and playing strong defense to sit 20th in ESPN's RPI rankings after notching 27 total wins and a 9-6 mark against the RPI top 100.
Cincinnati happens to average and do the same, though the Bearcats finished 45th in RPI at 22 wins with a 7-9 mark against the same competition.
Many will flock to Isaiah Miles (18.4 points per game) and the Hawks in this one, in large part thanks to how great the team looked while securing the A10 title, as ESPN Stats & Info illustrated:
But regression to the mean is absolutely on the way against these Bearcats, as the Hawks typically only shoot 45 percent from the field.
These Bearcats win on defense and rank ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com. In what looks like a surefire defensive affair, the Bearcats have an edge, which means the rebounding numbers and the lack of turnovers committed by the offense will come up huge down the stretch.
Prediction: Cincinnati 63, Saint Joseph's 59
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 UNI
The Northern Iowa Panthers got a mention in the intro because they have a knack for taking down top-tier opposition.
Just ask North Carolina and Iowa State, two teams in the top 25 of RPI.
The Panthers might just sit 73rd in RPI, but pair the upsets with an 8-3 mark against the RPI top 100, and it's not hard to see why this is one of the most popular upsets on the board.
Wes Washpun does it all, scoring 14.3 points per game and dishing 5.2 assists for an offense shooting 46 percent from the floor and 38 percent from deep.
Not that Texas doesn't stand a chance. The Longhorns define "battle-tested" with a 13-11 mark against the RPI top 100, sitting 27th in RPI thanks to a fourth-ranked strength of schedule.
It's been a tough road for the Longhorns, which explains why the team shoots 43 percent from the field and 34 percent from deep with just three scorers averaging double digits.
Texas knows what it's getting into, of course. The Austin American-Statesman's Brian Davis captured that plainly enough:
But is it enough to know?
UNI isn't one of those teams which are sure to look like deer in the headlights due to an opposing program's stature. The Panthers feature strong defense in the backcourt, which is sure to give Texas' sets some issues, disruption that will cause serious problems down the stretch for a weary Texas squad.
Look for UNI's pressure to apply a stranglehold late.
Prediction: Northern Iowa 64, Texas 60
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines have a chance to show the globe they belong Friday thanks to an encounter with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Michigan was on the receiving end of plenty of criticism for even getting a nod in the play-in game in place of smaller schools with better numbers. Sans leading scorer Caris LeVert, though, the Wolverines took care of business against Tulsa in 67-62 fashion behind 16 points from Zak Irvin.
The reason for the heat before the win? Michigan is 58th in RPI with a miserable 4-12 mark against the RPI top 100.
Win or not, those numbers don't bode well for the Wolverines against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame sits 32nd in RPI despite a 26th-ranked strength of schedule and a 4-5 mark against the RPI top 25.
Notre Dame simply gets it done on the offensive end of the court behind 15.5 points per game from top-tier NBA prospect Demetrius Jackson and another 14.4 from Zach Auguste. In total, the Fighting Irish come in 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com.
Michigan, on the other hand, comes in at No. 108 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The above should say it all. Notre Dame is too deep and potent to struggle with the Wolverines, who won't have their best player on the court.
Prediction: Notre Dame 72, Michigan 62
Stats and information courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN and KenPom.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.



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