Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Southern Jaguars Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

Holy Cross is the worst team in this year's NCAA tournament, but it's also, amazingly, 5-0 against the spread this season. The Crusaders will try to prove they belong in the Big Dance when they tangle with the Jaguars of Southern University in a First Four play-in game Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio.

Point spread: The Jaguars opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 128, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 70.9-65.2 Jaguars

Why pick Holy Cross to cover the spread

In their first season running the Princeton-style schemes under former Tigers head coach Bill Carmody, the Crusaders battled to a 7-7 start, before ending the season by losing 12 of their final 15 games. However, seven of their losses came by six points or less, two of those in overtime.

Holy Cross then benefited from a breakout performance from junior forward Malachi Alexander in the Patriot League tournament, leading to four wins in eight days, including upsets of top-seeded Bucknell, Army and Lehigh, to become the most unlikely conference tournament champion this season.

Alexander leads the team in scoring, rebounding and assists, and he carries a hot hand into the Dance, after averaging 21 points and eight boards during the Crusaders' recent run.

Why pick Southern to cover the spread

The Jags rated among the favorites to win the SWAC this season, but they stumbled into January, losing five of six games. They then won 10 of their next 11 but ended the regular season on a 1-4 slide to finish at 11-7 in conference play.

Southern had one more run in it, though, winning three games in three days, including an upset of top-seeded Texas Southern and a come-from-behind victory over third-seeded Jackson State, to win the SWAC tournament for the second time in the last four seasons.

The Jags are led by an experienced backcourt trio of seniors Adrian Rodgers and Christopher Hyder, and junior Trelun Banks, who combined to average 39 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists per game. As a team, Southern is shooting almost 45 percent from the floor while holding opponents to less than 42 percent.

Smart betting pick

Holy Cross is the most undeserving team in the tournament; at least Southern has a legitimate claim, with 22 victories. The Jags can also play some good defense, while the Crusaders struggle to throw the ball in the hole. The smart money here sides with Southern.

March Madness betting trends

Southern is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games against teams with losing records.

Southern is 3-0 SU in its last three games.

Holy Cross is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games.

Holy Cross is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games after winning as an underdog.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.