FGCU Eagles vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

Florida Gulf Coast made a splash in the NCAA tournament three seasons ago, upsetting Georgetown and San Diego State before falling to Florida in the Sweet 16, going 3-0 against the spread.

This year, the Eagles are back in the Big Dance, shooting for similar results when they face off with Fairleigh Dickinson in a First Four play-in game Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio.

Point spread: The Eagles opened as six-point favorites; the total was 149.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 76.2-68.4 Eagles

Why pick Florida Gulf Coast to cover the spread

The Eagles started just 6-7 this season but began the new year with a seven-game winning streak. A 4-6 finish didn't exactly provide inspiration heading into the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament, but Gulf Coast got hot, upsetting top-seeded North Florida and then outlasting Stetson in overtime in the title contest to secure its second-ever NCAA bid.

On the season, the Eagles are shooting almost 48 percent from the field and holding opponents to just 41 percent shooting. They're also out-rebounding foes by a handful per game. If FGCU can control the pace, defend the perimeter and hit its free-throws, it stands a good chance of winning this game and grabbing the cash.

Why pick Fairleigh Dickinson to cover the spread

Like their dance partners for Tuesday night, the Knights meandered through most of this season and, as of three weeks ago, languished below the .500 mark. But FDU closed the regular season with consecutive road victories and then won three games in six days in the Northeast Conference tournament, upsetting top-seeded Wagner in the title contest to earn its first NCAA tournament berth since 2005.

On the season, the uptempo Knights are averaging 78 points per game, with four players, led by guard Darian Anderson, averaging in double figures. They upped that to 81 PPG during their late-season run. If Fairleigh Dickinson can control the pace to its preference, hit some threes and hold its own on the boards, it could win this game outright.

Smart betting pick

FGCU owns the edge in experience, shoots the ball better than FDU, plays better defense and does a better job on the boards. So even while the line on this game is probably inflated by a bucket or so, the smart money here flies with the Eagles.

March Madness betting trends

• Fairleigh Dickinson is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
• Fairleigh Dickinson is 5-0 SU in its last five games.
• Florida Gulf Coast is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
• The total has gone under in seven of Florida Gulf Coast's last 10 games in March.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.