NFL Draft 2016: Buying or Selling Latest Rumors, Buzz and Speculation
The 2016 NFL Scouting Combine wrapped up Monday, and as usual, the week in Indianapolis provided plenty of rumors to debate.
While these rumors and speculations are fun to talk about, it's always smart to consider the agenda of the source when trying to sort fact from fiction.
With that in mind, here's a look at eight topics of conversation around the NFL draft and an evaluation of whether you should buy or sell the latest rumors, buzz and speculation.
Buy: Ezekiel Elliott Is a Top-Four Pick
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ESPN NFL analyst Louis Riddick stated that he would be "shocked" if Ezekiel Elliott was not among the first four prospects off the board.
Riddick doesn't appear to have any inside source for this info, but he's trusting his own evaluation and the overwhelming praise he's heard of Elliott around the league.
He went on to say that "many view Elliott as being a special combination of skills and character."
Obviously, his statement comes as a surprise due to the lack of interest in running backs in recent years, but Elliott is a special talent.
In most years, I would probably sell Riddick's statement due to the lack of value a running back has to a rebuilding team, but the Dallas Cowboys are a wild card in this draft.
The Cowboys are built to win now, and their most glaring hole on either side of the ball might be at running back.
This scenario appears to give the Cowboys a perfect blend of value and need.
It's certainly not a guarantee—nothing is this early in the process—but don't dismiss Riddick's statement simply because you haven't been reading it in mock drafts.
Sell: Browns Targeting Carson Wentz
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Peter King of TheMMQB.com tentatively declared Carson Wentz the favorite to go No. 2 overall to the Browns following his strong combine performance.
According to King, the Browns "liked Wentz over Jared Goff in the interview process," giving him the edge to be Cleveland's next quarterback.
The issue with speculating on the Browns this early in the process is that we have no clue what they're thinking.
There's absolutely no history to fall back on to predict which direction Browns' new executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown and his analytics team will go in the draft.
The closest comparison there is to the Browns front office is probably the Jacksonville Jaguars front office, which also relies heavily on analytics.
In 2013, the first draft for general manager David Caldwell, the quarterback-needy Jaguars didn't select a single player at the position, passing on prospects such as Geno Smith and Mike Glennon.
The following year, the Jaguars shocked us in the other direction, reaching for Blake Bortles with the third overall pick.
If the Browns have a similar approach to the Jaguars, they won't reach for a quarterback simply because it's a need. They'll take their time and select the prospect they're most comfortable with, regardless of what the outsiders believe.
Buy: Robert Nkemdiche Will Fall on Draft Day
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It can be tough to buy into these rumors when there's relatively little on the record to prove a prospect has character concerns.
In Robert Nkemdiche's case, he was a three-year starter and potential top-10 selection before getting suspended from Ole Miss for a bizarre incident in a hotel room prior to the Rebels' bowl game in December.
According to Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News, Nkemdiche claims he was drunk when he fell from the hotel window and not on drugs.
If that's true, it's tough to understand why he would be falling in the draft. But when there's this much smoke, there's almost always fire.
This isn't a case of one or two anonymous scouts spreading rumors. Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel cited multiple scouts talking about Nkemdiche's off-field issues, including one who stated he has been removed from his team's draft board.
Nkemdiche only needs to convince one team to buy into his upside, but falling into the late-first or even the second round is a real possibility.
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Sell: Myles Jack Is the No. 1 Prospect
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Myles Jack hasn't played a game since September, but the hype continues to build.
McGinn recently quoted an anonymous scout as saying Jack is "the best player in the draft. He's a slam dunk."
Rotoword's Josh Norris also has Jack atop his draft board.
Jack is a fascinating athlete who will almost certainly be a top-10 selection. However, it would come as a shock if any NFL team placed a prospect coming off a season-ending knee injury atop its draft board.
Aside from the injury, there's also the question of where Jack will play in the NFL.
He appears to have the skills of a weak-side linebacker, which typically draws less interest from teams early in the draft.
Jack's speed is an asset in coverage, but his lack of strength is a concern in other areas. He only generated one sack at UCLA and struggled to shed blocks when he was engaged by offensive linemen near the line of scrimmage.
Even if Jack is the best athlete in this class, he is certainly not the safest pick and therefore won't be No. 1 on draft boards.
Buy: Derrick Henry Will Be a First-Round Pick
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Derrick Henry's remarkable performance in Indianapolis was one of the major storylines, and it put him firmly in the first-round discussion.
Prior to the combine, ESPN's Mark Dominik gave Henry a first-round grade, and it now appears reasonable to assume many NFL teams will as well.
The major question surrounding Henry prior to the combine was whether he was athletic enough to play in the NFL.
We all saw him run through tackles at Alabama, but to survive in the NFL, it takes more than pure strength.
It's fair to criticize Henry for his lack of explosive moves at Alabama, but the combine proved he's at least capable of adding that component to his game.
An NFL team can now draft Henry and reasonably expect to see a more athletic version of him on the field at the next level, especially if he can drop a few pounds.
Le'Veon Bell made a similar transformation after playing a bulldozer style of football at Michigan State, and Henry could do the same.
Sell: Joey Bosa Is the Next J.J. Watt
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Joey Bosa has been compared to J.J. Watt since his freshman year at Ohio State, and the comparison just won't die.
NFL on ESPN recently shared a graphic on Twitter comparing the two linemen and their similar combine numbers.
What that graphic doesn't show is the 20-pound difference between the two prospects, making Watt's agility numbers significantly more impressive.
To be fair, some of the Watt comparisons might be based on a projection of what Bosa can become.
It's certainly reasonable to imagine Bosa having a more Watt-like style to his game if he were to add 15 to 20 pounds in order to fit into a different scheme in the NFL.
However, at this stage of Bosa's career, he just doesn't stack up against the most dominant defensive player in the league.
Buy: Rams Targeting a Quarterback
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It's far too early to know who the Los Angeles Rams might be targeting, but it's reasonable to assume they want a quarterback and may even be willing to reach to land one.
There's no official rumor connected to this, but it is a speculation in mock drafts. For example, Peter Schrager of FoxSports.com has the Rams taking Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook.
For most franchises with the Rams roster, it would be wise to invest in the defensive side of the ball and try to find a veteran quarterback who can manage the game—in other words, follow the Kansas City Chiefs' blueprint.
But the Rams are moving to a new city and need to attract a brand-new fanbase. That shouldn't factor into the team's plans, but owners have a tendency to meddle in these types of situations.
It would be much easier to sell the Rams to the Los Angeles fanbase with a new, young franchise signal-caller than a stale vet.
Wentz and Goff may be off the board, which means the Rams might be forced to reach for a prospect such as Memphis' Paxton Lynch.
Sell: Noah Spence Failed Interviews at Combine
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Buying or selling this rumor requires a pure guess, because obviously, we weren't in the room for Noah Spence's interviews.
However, it is awfully suspicious that these rumors only popped up at the combine, nearly a month after Spence put on a phenomenal performance during his week at the Senior Bowl.
According to Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, at least one NFL general manager is unsure if Spence is trustworthy based on their interview at the combine.
Perhaps that's an honest assessment, but it's also not hard to imagine that quote coming from a GM who wouldn't mind Spence slipping a few spots on draft day.
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