The State of the UFC Featherweight Division
The UFC featherweight division is a tale of two realities. On one hand, it boasts the most marketable champion in mixed martial arts, Conor McGregor. In short order, he has built himself into a cash-generating superstar. On the other hand, he's gotten so popular, so fast, that the world opened itself up to him. McGregor is abandoning the division—maybe temporarily, maybe not—to chase the lightweight belt when he faces Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 197 on March 5.
Whatever happens, it will affect the 145-pounders. If he wins, McGregor is going to attempt to do something no one in UFC history ever has: defend two belts concurrently. That will make scheduling a headache and likely lead to contender frustration. (See Exhibit A: Frankie Edgar.) If he loses, some of the luster falls off his shiny star, and by extension, a matchup back in his division does, too.
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But make no mistake, keeping McGregor fighting at featherweight beats the alternative. His presence draws the spotlight, and that's something his division-mates desperately need.
The Champion
Conor McGregor
Few fighters in MMA history can boast the kind of meteoric rise McGregor has made. At the start of 2015, he was an intriguing talent who inspired lots of headlines, but was mostly unproven as a ratings draw. By the end of it, he was rivaling Ronda Rousey as MMA's biggest box office star.
McGregor (19-2) is a rare blend of in-cage talent and charisma, with a sharp tongue that attracts attention while building rivals. Almost anywhere he turns, he can find a fight that will draw interest. While he has Dos Anjos next on his docket, Frankie Edgar has been not-so-patiently awaiting his turn. Meanwhile, Jose Aldo is demanding a rematch, Chad Mendes wants a chance at McGregor with a full camp, Max Holloway is surging...and that's just the 145-pounders.
McGregor has vowed to stay active, and if he follows through on that, he can make a small fortune in the process. But despite his success, plenty of questions still surround him.
Will his power follow him to the lightweight ranks? Can he beat a wrestler with a full camp? Will too much activity and the distractions that go with the belt begin to seep in?
The MMA world is his for the taking, but also many forces are conspiring to stop him. However things turn out, his career arc will be one of the most fascinating storylines of 2016.
The Contenders
Frankie Edgar
For years, Edgar has been MMA's Mr. Nice Guy—quiet, humble and respectful. But he may have had it with being a UFC company man after being passed over for a title shot, despite a five-fight win streak that has seen him finish Chad Mendes, Cub Swanson and B.J. Penn.
After declaring himself "pissed" about his treatment (per the MMA Hour podcast, H/T MMAFighting.com), Edgar doesn't quite know what will come next for him. Among featherweights, no one other than Aldo has as compelling a case as him. In some ways, he has the best one, as Edgar's ability and willingness to transition between striking, wrestling and the ground game offer McGregor more risk than any other divisional possibility.
Edgar would be a handful for McGregor, as he has been for everyone else throughout his career. But for now, he'll have to funnel his anger into training while he continues the waiting game, wondering if his number will get called next.
Jose Aldo
As contenders get reshuffled, it is difficult not to feel some level of empathy for Aldo, who saw his 10-year unbeaten streak vanish in a blink and then essentially rendered meaningless when the UFC never really considered him for a rematch. To be sure, it's not easy to sell a second bout with someone who lost so quickly, but on the other hand, it's easy to feel like Aldo deserved better.
What's next for him? Well, he recently told Gabriel Mansur of Brazilian outlet Globo Esporte (via Bloody Elbow) that he wouldn't accept another fight that is not for the belt. With UFC unlikely to offer him McGregor anytime soon, that leaves him in no man's land.
After making a small fortune at UFC 194, Aldo can probably afford to take that stand for now. But if he wants to continue to fight, he may have to eventually back off it. Edgar is a more likely next opponent for McGregor, leaving the former champion few real options past a temporary stand.
Max Holloway
Just 20 years old when he entered the UFC, Holloway was a raw talent whose ceiling was speculative. There was just so far to go. He stumbled early, going 3-3 in his first six fights, but ever since losing to McGregor in August 2013, his abilities have reached his potential.
A winner of eight straight, Holloway has rounded out his fight game by incorporating a high work rate (5.49 strikes per minute, good for ninth all-time, according to FightMetric), a diverse arsenal and a veteran's poise to dispatch seasoned fighters including Jeremy Stephens, Cub Swanson and Cole Miller. While his opponent level has not been as high as some of the contenders above him, Holloway's stretch might have him one strong win away from a shot at gold.
A Long Way to Go
Chad Mendes
Once viewed as the man most likely to dethrone Aldo, Mendes has fallen on hard times lately, losing three of his last four. While he can point to the high caliber of opponent that has defeated him—namely Aldo, Edgar and McGregor—the last two of those losses were via knockout.
At 30 years old, Mendes isn't exactly over the hill, but even being ranked No. 3 in the division, he's unlikely to get another title shot unless he can put together some kind of streak. And fresh off his knockout loss to Edgar, he's probably going to need a little time before he even gets back in the cage.
Mendes was once the seeming heir to the throne, but at this point, it is difficult to envision him finding his way back there anytime soon.
Cub Swanson
After a career filled with highs and lows, Swanson had seemingly found his stride when by the summer of 2014 he'd won six in a row. A title shot seemed around the corner. All he allegedly had to do was beat Edgar.
You know the rest. Edgar finished him via submission, and that opportunity went poof. Not long afterward, Swanson suffered another submission loss, this time to Holloway. With consecutive defeats to two contenders ahead of him—Swanson is currently ranked sixth—there's little chance he jumps them both in the line by the end of the year. All he can do is try to start a new streak.
Brian Ortega
Just 24 years old, Ortega is the second-youngest fighter to crack the divisional rankings, born just a few months behind Holloway. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt goes by "T-City" as a reference to his perpetually threatened triangle choke. In his last fight, he used it to stop Diego Brandao, which vaulted him into the Top 15.
The jury is still out on Ortega, however. Though he is still unbeaten in his career (10-0, 1 no-contest), his UFC output has seen him outlanded in strikes per minute, and he's only accurate on 33 percent of his strikes, according to FightMetric. Even in a small sample size, those types of numbers don't usually bode well as fighters move up the rankings and toward better oppositions unless they make major adjustments.
The Prospects
Mirsad Bektic
The featherweight division has some excellent young talent, and one who has largely fallen under the radar is Bektic, a 24-year-old who was born in Bosnia before eventually immigrating to the United States. A member of American Top Team, he has already won three times in the UFC, moving his overall record to a perfect 10-0.
Moreover, his advanced stats show someone with significant upside, as he's dominated opposition without taking much damage in return. On average, he lands almost four times as many strikes as his opponents (2.82 strikes per minute to 0.79), and he has never been taken down.
Recently, Bektic was scheduled to take a step up in competition against Japanese veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri. That bout was ultimately scrapped due to a Bektic injury, but if he can get healthy, 2016 should be the year he makes a run into the rankings.
Doo Ho Choi
South Korea has sent its share of mixed martial artists to the world stage, and this latest arrival, nicknamed "The Korean Superboy," has the hardcore fans buzzing with an intriguing combination of power striking, flash and finishing instincts.
Choi is just 24 years old and has just 111 seconds of UFC cage time under his belt, but he's 2-0 for the promotion and recently starched the iron-chinned veteran Sam Sicilia. Injuries have already held him back a bit, but if his health holds, he's a cinch to make waves.
Yair Rodriguez
Of all the young talent, Rodriguez has probably received more attention than most, if only due to the fact that he fought on UFC's first two visits to Mexico, his native country. While that brought him some eyeballs, it continues to be his unorthodox offense and creativity that have established him as a legitimate prospect.
Rodriguez's future may depend on him pulling back his occasional wildness in favor of controlled outbursts. If that's true, he's picked the right camp for it, setting up shop with Team Greg Jackson, whose coaches have historically done a great job of refining existing talents in the unforgiving cage.
The Best of the Rest
Charles Oliveira: Still young, still dynamic, but too inconsistent.
Ricardo Lamas: Tough as nails but has struggled against the division's true elite.
Dennis Bermudez: Got into contention with seven straight wins, but two straight losses have set him back.
The Last Word
The UFC featherweight division is bursting with tension largely created by matchups both potential and rumored. It has a transcendent champion, decorated veterans and a brilliant young crop of prospects.
How 2016 will play out at the top is largely dependent on McGregor. If he holds up the division by moving back and forth to lightweight, his fellow featherweights will find themselves stuck in neutral. We're already seeing some signs of that, as only a few meaningful matchups in the division are currently on the books. Even if that happens, the youngsters will begin to rise and threaten those at the top.
The bad news is that there are so many pieces in play that it will be a challenge to coordinate everything in a meaningful way. But that's a small negative. The good news is that no matter what happens, the division features too much talent for it to be boring.
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