
NFL Playoff Picks 2016: Odds and Over-Under Predictions for Postseason Games
Handicapping opportunities may not be as plentiful in the playoffs as they are in the regular season, but they can be much more profitable.
When there are only four games in a weekend, it gives a sharp handicapper much more time to study and come up with a strong rationale for picking the favorite or the underdog. However, it also provides the opportunity to spend a lot more time examining the total.
Handicappers can get overwhelmed by volume in the regular season, especially if they are also playing college football games on Saturdays.
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But looking at eight different betting scenarios during the divisional playoffs can be ideal when it comes to figuring out sides and totals to play. As of Thursday night, there were actually seven separate straight (non-parlay) opportunities, because there is still no total listed in the Pittsburgh-Denver game due to numerous Pittsburgh injuries.
The New England Patriots remain 4.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs, according to Odds Shark, but we are not going to examine that aspect of the game here.
It's the total of 42 that may represent the best opportunity. Normally, the thought of Tom Brady having a home playoff game would provide handicappers with a strong urge to lean toward the over, but that's not the case in this game.
The Patriots come into this game struggling to find their consistency. They have dropped four of their last six regular-season games, and Brady has thrown just five touchdown passes in his last four games.
While he is expecting to get wide receiver Julian Edelman back for this game after the latter broke his foot in Week 9 against the New York Giants, the timing between Brady and Edelman may not be exact.
Additionally, tight end Rob Gronkowski took an injection in his knee Thursday, and there's no telling at this point how that will impact his ability to perform against the Chiefs. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reported Friday that Gronkowski is also contending with a back problem.
On the Chiefs' side, Jeremy Maclin has been one of the big keys for the Chiefs this season. He has given Andy Reid and Alex Smith a wide receiver who can go downfield and stretch the defense. However, Maclin suffered an ankle injury in the 30-0 Wild Card Weekend win over the Houston Texans last week, and his status against the Patriots has not been determined.
The Chiefs have been an improved defensive team from the start of the year, and defense is also one of the most underrated aspects of the Patriots' game.
The Chiefs have the seventh-rated defense in the league, and their ranking went up decisively after their 1-5 start. Rookie cornerback Marcus Peters had eight regular-season interceptions and 34 passes defensed. Plus, the combination of Justin Houston (slowed by a knee injury) and Tamba Hali are capable of putting maximum pressure on Brady.
"For #Chiefs, Maclin, Hali, and OLs Morse and Duvernay-Tardif did not practice for 2nd day in a row. Justin Houston (knee) Limited
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) January 14, 2016"
The Patriots had the ninth-ranked defense this year and are led by athletic linebacker Jamie Collins, who had 89 tackles, 5.5 sacks and five forced fumbles. Defensive end Rob Ninkovich has been a big-time, big-game performer for the Patriots, recording 52 tackles and 6.5 sacks.
Look for both teams to play it conservatively in an effort to avoid mistakes. This game could come down to field position and which team makes key plays at the end of the game. That is likely to be the Patriots, but the better play is the under-42.
| Kansas City at New England | Jan. 16, 4:35 p.m. | New England (-4.5) | 42 | NE; Under |
| Pittsburgh at Denver | Jan. 17, 4:40 p.m. | Denver (-7) | -- | Denver* |
| Seattle at Carolina | Jan. 17, 105 p.m. | Carolina (-1) | 44 | Carolina; Over |
| Green Bay at Arizona | Jan. 16, 8:15 p.m. | Arizona (-7) | 50 | Arizona*; Over |
| *-Will win game but will not cover point spread. |
That scenario is the opposite of what should develop in the desert Saturday night. The Arizona Cardinals have the top-ranked offense in the league and a highly motivated and proficient quarterback in Carson Palmer. Palmer was injured last year and unable to participate in the postseason, and he has the game and the weapons to put on a show in the playoffs.
The Green Bay Packers played a game at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 16 and were blown out by the Cardinals, 38-8. It may not look like the best matchup for the Packers, but Green Bay rediscovered its offense against Washington in the Wild Card Round, scoring a 35-18 victory.
If the Packers are back in form and Aaron Rodgers is ready to light it up in the postseason, they could push the Cardinals to the limit.
There's a chance that both teams could trade touchdowns throughout much of this game. The total of 50 points may seem high, but if this game is tied at 14-14 at halftime, that means that just 23 points will be needed to go over the total.
It's difficult to see either team playing conservative football until the late stages of the fourth quarter, so the belief here is that this game will soar past the 50-point mark. Look for these two teams to approach 60 points.

Look for another high-scoring game on Sunday between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers. While defense has been the calling card for the Seahawks and the Panthers have a hard-hitting unit themselves, this game may turn out to be an old-fashioned quarterback duel between two superstars at the top of their games.
Russell Wilson keyed the Seahawks' second-half surge that saw them win six of their final seven games. He had a 24-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio over those seven games and had a wonderful rapport with wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who caught 14 TD passes.
Cam Newton is the league's likely MVP after leading the Panthers to a 15-1 record. All Newton did was throw 35 TD passes (with just 10 interceptions) and run for 10 more. Newton has made clutch plays all season long, and his confidence has grown dramatically.
The 44-point total should not be a problem for these two teams. Both want to score in an explosive manner, and this game could be very similar to their Week 6 meeting, in which the Panthers registered a 27-23 victory at Seattle.
The location has changed, but this will be another game that reaches the 50-point level.

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