New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New York Jets are a hot item at the moment, on the verge of a playoff berth. But to get there they'll have to beat a Buffalo team against whom they're 0-4 both straight up and against the spread over the last four meetings. For the 111th time the Jets battle the Bills on Sunday in Buffalo.

Point spread: The Jets opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.2-22.0 Bills

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York owns a five-game winning streak after knocking off New England in overtime last week 26-20. The Jets led 17-3, allowed the Patriots to tie the game at 20-20 with two minutes to go but drove the opening kickoff of the extra period to a game-winning score on a Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown connection with Eric Decker.

On the day, New York outrushed New England 143-63, outgained the Patriots 428-284 and won time of possession by almost six minutes. So the Jets have outgained each of their last five opponents, outrushing four of them. Not coincidentally, they're 4-0-1 ATS over that span.

With a victory this week New York earns a wild-card spot; with a loss, it would need help in the form of a Cleveland upset of Pittsburgh. The Jets might want to take care of business themselves.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 16-6 victory over Dallas last week. The Bills spotted the Cowboys an early field goal, then held them to one more field goal over the last 55 minutes of the game.

Buffalo took the lead for good on a Dan Carpenter field goal in the third quarter, then iced the victory and the cover as six-point favorites on a 50-yard touchdown bolt by Mike Gillislee with two minutes to go.

For the day, the Bills outrushed Dallas 236-121. So Buffalo has now outrushed each of its last four foes and seven of its last eight. That's how the Bills have managed to go 4-3-1 ATS their last eight times out.

Buffalo can't make the playoffs, but it can finish 8-8 and in the process spoil the Jets' playoff hopes.

Smart pick

The Jets are coming off a huge emotional victory over a hated divisional rival but now head out on the divisional road to go against their former coach, who might know a thing or two about beating them. In fact, the Bills won the first meeting between these teams this season six weeks ago 22-17 in Jersey. Also, Buffalo is 7-2 ATS its last nine times out as a home dog. The smart money here backs the Bills.

Betting trends

The Jets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bills.

The Bills are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in January.

The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.