New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

As with almost every other opponent they meet on a regular basis, the New England Patriots own the upper hand in the recent series with the Miami Dolphins, winning nine of the last 11 meetings outright and going 7-4 against the spread. Still needing a victory to clinch the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs, the Patriots visit the downtrodden Dolphins on Sunday.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.8-16.6 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The injury-depleted Patriots have lost three of their last five games, but two of those have come in overtime, including last week's 26-20 defeat at the New York Jets.

New England fell down 17-3 but rallied to tie the game at 20-20 on a Tom Brady touchdown pass to running back James White with two minutes to go, forcing overtime. Head coach Bill Belichick then chose to defer on the coin flip, but New York drove to an immediate touchdown.

The Patriots got outrushed by the Jets 143-63 and were outgained 428-284. But that's just the second time in their last nine games they've been outrushed and outgained.

New England beat Miami back in October 36-7, outgaining the Dolphins by 160 yards and easily covering the eight points.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

This is a tougher case to make.

Miami is 0-3 straight up over its last three games and 0-6 ATS over its last six after losing at home to the Indianapolis Colts last week 18-12. The Dolphins trailed 15-6 at the half, pulled to within six points with five minutes to go and then drove to the Colts' 5-yard line with a minute left. But three incompletions and a sack stymied the rally.

Miami outgained Indy 361-268 and won time of possession by a 33-27 margin, but it gave up a safety, threw an interception from the Colts' 6-yard line, missed a two-point conversion and had a touchdown nullified by penalty.

Eliminate the mistakes, and the Dolphins might start winning games again.

Smart pick

The Patriots need this one for home-field advantage in the playoffs, while the Dolphins probably have other things on their minds. The smart money here sides with New England.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games.

The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.