NFL Playoff Scenarios 2016: Bracket Odds for AFC, NFC Teams in Contention
It's that time of the NFL season when you brush up on your tiebreakers, mentally preview potential playoff matchups and pay a lot more attention to the events of a wide variety of teams.
Week 17 is quickly approaching, folks.
The NFC's six-team playoff field is set, but some minor shuffling could take place in the final week of the season. The result of an NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings could definitely facilitate some seed movement.
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In the AFC, eight teams are still alive in a tightly-contested race. Unlike the NFC, there's a bunch of potential for significant seed movement.
But what sort of future is Vegas predicting for these teams? We'll look at some odds for each still-alive team and then break down all of the playoff seeding scenarios for said squads.
| AFC | ||
| New England Patriots | +110 | +350 |
| Denver Broncos | +400 | +1000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +700 | +1400 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +850 | +2000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +850 | +1600 |
| New York Jets | +1600 | +2800 |
| Houston Texans | +3300 | +6600 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +7500 | +15000 |
| NFC | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | +175 | +350 |
| Carolina Panthers | +200 | +500 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +400 | +750 |
| Green Bay Packers | +750 | +1600 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1600 | +2800 |
| Washington Redskins | +2800 | +5000 |
AFC Bracket Scenarios
| 1 | New England Patriots | 12-3 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 11-4 |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11-4 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 8-7 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10-5 |
| 6 | New York Jets | 10-5 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-6 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-8 |
No. 1-seeded New England Patriots
The Pats are guaranteed a first-round bye, but they could fall to the second seed if and only if they lose in Week 17 and the Denver Broncos win.
No. 2-seeded Denver Broncos
Denver has the widest potential spread of seeds here. It can take the No. 1 seed with a win and a New England loss. The Broncos will take the No. 2 seed if both they and the Patriots win, or if they, the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs also lose. They can get the No. 3 seed if they lose, the Bengals win but the Chiefs also lose. The No. 5 seed is on the table if they lose, the Chiefs win but the New York Jets also lose. Lastly, in a worst-case scenario, Denver falls to the No. 6 slot if it loses and the Chiefs and Jets both win.
No. 3-seeded Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are out of the running for the AFC's top seed, but they can get a bye in the first round if the Broncos lose and they win, or the Broncos lose and the Chiefs win. If anything other than that happens, they'll stay in the No. 3 slot.
No. 4-seeded Houston Texans
The Texans are basically guaranteed this spot. The only way they miss out on the playoffs is if they lose, the Indianapolis Colts win and Indy somehow catches Houston in the strength of victory tiebreaker. We'll get to the specifics of that later.
No. 5-seeded Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City can move up to the No. 3 seed if it wins and the Broncos lose. They can remain in their spot with a win and a Denver win, or if they lose and the Jets also lose. If the Chiefs lose and the Jets win, Kansas City will fall to No. 6.
No. 6-seeded New York Jets
The Jets can end anywhere from seed No. 5 to No. 7. If they win and one of either the Broncos or Chiefs lose, they'll get the No. 5 slot. If they win, but Denver and Kansas City do as well, they'll be No. 6. A loss coupled with a Pittsburgh Steelers loss accomplishes the same outcome. However, if the Jets lose and the Steelers win, New York will miss the postseason.
No. 7-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers need to win and hope the Jets lose to grab the No. 6 seed.
No. 10-seeded Indianapolis Colts
Whoa boy, would it be quite unexpected if the Colts sneaked into the playoffs. They need to win, have the Texans lose and have seven other game results break in Indy's favor for the Colts to win the AFC South and grab the No. 4 seed.
NFC Bracket Scenarios
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | 14-1 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 13-2 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 10-5 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | 8-7 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 10-5 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 9-6 |
No. 1-seeded Carolina Panthers
The Panthers only lose this spot if they lose and the Arizona Cardinals win. If that happens, they'll be the No. 2 seed.
No. 2-seeded Arizona Cardinals
Arizona, like Carolina, is stuck in its position unless a Cardinals win is coupled with a Panthers loss.
No. 3-seeded Green Bay Packers
The Packers can't move up, but they can move down. If they beat the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings in Week 17, they'll maintain their seeding. If they lose, they'll move down to the No. 5 seed regardless of any other outcome.
No. 4-seeded Washington Redskins
Washington wrapped up the No. 4 seed Sunday with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles to clinch the NFC East. They will not be moving in Week 17.
No. 5-seeded Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have the most variance in the NFC. If they beat the Packers, they'll win the division and get the No. 3 seed. If they lose, they'll either be in the No. 5 or No. 6 slot, depending on the Seattle Seahawks' result. Minnesota would stay the No. 5 seed in that scenario if Seattle loses but would move down if the Seahawks win.
No. 6-seeded Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks will keep their seed for sure if they lose, and would also keep it in a win if the Vikings defeated the Packers. They will move up to the No. 5 seed with a win and a Vikings loss, however.
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