Birmingham Bowl Betting: Auburn vs. Memphis Odds, Analysis and Pick

Not too long ago, Auburn was a great bet, going 12-2 against the spread during its run to the national championship game two seasons ago. But since then, the Tigers are just 7-18 ATS. Somehow, Auburn is a short favorite over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl.

Birmingham Bowl point spread: Tigers opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.5-27.8 Tigers

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

Auburn started 4-2 this season, with wins over a pair of bowl-bound teams and losses coming against LSU and Mississippi State. The Tigers then lost that crazy game at Arkansas in four overtimes, and they fell by a touchdown to Ole Miss.

They then pulled off an upset at Texas A&M but lost by a touchdown to Georgia. Auburn rebounded to pound Idaho 56-34, then gave eventual SEC champion Alabama a good scare, pulling to within 19-13 in the fourth quarter of the Iron Bowl before succumbing 29-13.

So while Auburn lost six games this season, four of those came by one score or less.

Also, while the Tigers finished 2-3 ATS this season as underdogs, that's a little fluky; Auburn should have covered against both the Razorbacks and the Tide.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

Memphis started 8-0 this season, with wins over eventual MAC champion Bowling Green, Ole Miss and three other bowl-bound outfits. But the Tigers then lost three games in a row, to AAC title contenders Navy, Houston and Temple, to fall out of contention themselves. But Memphis ended its regular season with a bang, stomping SMU 63-0.

The Tigers outgained the Mustangs by 386 yards and outrushed them by 162 yards. So Memphis has now outgained and outrushed five of its last seven foes.

Finally, the Tigers are 2-0 ATS this season as underdogs, upsetting the Rebels and later rallying for a backdoor cover against the Cougars.

Smart pick

Memphis will play this game under an interim head coach, after Justin Fuente bolted to take over at Virginia Tech, but the Tigers are still a quality team and might want to show their departed coach they'll be just fine without him. They might also try to showcase quarterback Paxton Lynch, who is off to the NFL after this game. Auburn, meanwhile, doesn't even deserve to be in a bowl after winning just two SEC games this season. The smart money here likes Memphis.

Betting trends

Auburn is 6-0 SU in its last six games in December.

Auburn is 9-3 SU in its last 12 bowl games.

The total has gone over in four of Memphis' last five bowl games.

The favored team is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five Birmingham Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.