Belk Bowl Betting: NC State vs. Mississippi State Odds, Analysis and Pick

North Carolina State has been a great bowl bet over recent seasons, winning six of its last eight bowls outright and going 6-1-1 against the spread. Mississippi State, meanwhile, hasn't been too bad itself, also winning six of its last eight bowls, going 5-2-1 ATS. The ACC meets the SEC when the Wolfpack battle the Bulldogs in the Belk Bowl.

Belk Bowl point spread: Bulldogs opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.5-30.6 Bulldogs

Why the Wolfpack can cover the spread

The Pack started 4-0 this season, with four straight covers, averaging 46 points per game. N.C. State then lost its first two ACC games to Louisville and Virginia Tech, then alternated victories and defeats from there on out.

Along the way, the Wolfpack gave both eventual ACC champion Clemson and Florida State good scares, taking the Tigers to 33-27 late into the third quarter, before fading, and leading the Seminoles at 17-7, before giving way.

North Carolina State runs balanced on offense—averaging 211 yards per game through the air and 202 on the ground—on its way to 34 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Wolfpack defense ranks 19th in the country, allowing just 333 yards per game.

The Pack are playing in their second bowl under head coach Dave Doeren; last year they went into the St. Petersburg Bowl as underdogs against Central Florida but pulled off a 34-27 upset.

Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

MSU opened this season 2-3, with a win over what turned out to be a pretty good Southern Mississippi team, with the losses coming against LSU and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs then won four in a row, averaging 41 points per in the process, securing bowl eligibility. Mississippi State then lost to Alabama and won a crazy game at Arkansas, but it lost the Egg Bowl to Ole Miss, 38-27, in the season finale.

The Rebels outgained and outrushed the Bulldogs, but that was the first time that had happened to MSU since the Auburn game back in September. Between then and there, Mississippi State outgained six of seven opponents and outrushed four of seven.

Finally, the Bulldogs are 4-2 ATS this season when favored and 3-0 ATS when favored by less than two touchdowns.

Smart pick

N.C. State might hold some degree of home-field advantage for this game, playing so close to home, but realistically, when your best victories come against Syracuse and Boston College, you probably shouldn't even be playing in a bowl. Mississippi State looks like the smart money here.

Betting trends

North Carolina State is 0-4 straight up and ATS in its last four games against the SEC.

North Carolina State is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight bowl games.

Mississippi State is 6-2 SU in its last eight bowl games.

The favorite is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four Belk Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.