New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Minnesota not only remains in the thick of the NFC playoff race, it ranks among the very best bets in the league so far this season at 11-3 against the spread. The Vikings seek to keep pace with Green Bay in their divisional race when they host the New York Giants Sunday night in Minneapolis.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as four-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.8-18.1 Vikings

Why the Giants can cover the spread

The Giants just suffered their fourth loss in their last five games, all by one score or less, after succumbing to still-undefeated Carolina Sunday, 38-35. New York fell down 35-7, rallied to tie the game at 35-35 with just under two minutes to go, but fell victim to a Cam Newton rally and a Graham Gano field goal at the buzzer.

Still, the Giants pulled off one of the more unlikely back-door covers of this NFL season, as four-point home dogs. They're now 4-2-1 ATS this year when getting points.

At 6-8 overall you'd think New York would be dead in the water, as far as the playoffs go. Instead, the G-Men sit just a game out of first place in the wild-and-wonderful NFC East.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings solidified their position in the NFC playoff race with a 38-17 victory over Chicago last week, halting a two-game losing streak and covering as four-point favorites. Minnesota led 10-0 before the Bears converted a first down and never let Chicago back in the game. On the day the Vikings outrushed the Bears 129-94, outgained them 350-293, held the ball for over 32 minutes and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Minnesota has now outgained and outrushed five of its last nine opponents. It's also 6-2 ATS this season as a favorite.

At 9-5 overall the Vikings are tied with Seattle for the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds in the NFC, and only trail the first-place Packers by a game in the NFC North.

Smart pick

Minnesota is outrushing opponents this season by 18 yards per game; New York is getting outrushed by 21 yards per game. And so far this NFL season teams that win the ground battle have covered the spread 72 percent of the time. The smart money here likes the Vikes.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games as favorites.

The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC North division.

The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Vikings.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.