Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) can move a step closer to clinching a playoff berth Sunday when they visit the struggling Baltimore Ravens (4-10) in an AFC North rivalry game. The Steelers have lost nine of their last 12 road games versus the Ravens straight up but have gone 5-2 against the spread in the past seven. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, although the favorite has won five of six.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.9-23.8 Ravens

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh continues to perform at a high level when it matters the most—in the month of December. The Steelers have now won 10 straight December games and gone 9-0-1 against the spread after pulling off a 34-27 home win over the Denver Broncos as seven-point favorites last Sunday. They trailed the Broncos 27-13 at halftime before rallying back following the intermission behind quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

If not for Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots, Roethlisberger might be a leading NFL MVP candidate after completing 40 of 55 passes for 385 yards with three touchdowns against Denver. He also threw two interceptions, but his leadership and ability to get the ball to wide receiver Antonio Brown has been invaluable to the team. Brown was targeted 18 times and ended up with 16 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens have been ravaged by injuries since the last time they played Pittsburgh back on October 1, winning that game 23-20 in overtime as three-point road favorites. Roethlisberger was out for the Steelers due to a knee injury, and he has struggled against Baltimore with a 9-7 career record, 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Of the last nine meetings, six were decided by three points or less, proving this to be one of the best rivalries in the NFL. Baltimore has not lost at home to Pittsburgh by more than four points since 2002 when the Steelers won 31-18 as three-point road favorites. The Ravens have won nine of the past 12 home meetings straight up.

Smart pick

Pittsburgh is a double-digit favorite in this matchup, which says more about the state of Baltimore than it does the team’s current form. The Steelers have been rolling, though, winning three in a row, and they can clinch a playoff spot with a victory and a loss by the New York Jets to the New England Patriots. Winning and covering such a big number are two very different things, though, so back Baltimore to stay within the number.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road against the Ravens.

The Steelers are 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December.

The Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.