Armed Forces Bowl Betting: California vs. Air Force Odds, Analysis and Pick

The ground-oriented Falcons of Air Force are 3-2 outright and 4-1 against the spread in their last five bowl appearances, and they take aim at a Big 5 foe when they take on the pass-happy Cal Bears in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Armed Forces Bowl point spread: Golden Bears opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 42.7-28.8 Falcons

Why the Golden Bears can cover the spread

Led by a future first-round draft pick at quarterback in Jared Goff, Cal opened this season 5-0, and 2-0 in Pac-12 play. The Bears then hit a skid and lost four in a row, including a six-point decision at Utah in which Goff threw five interceptions, and a six-point decision to eventual West Division champion USC. But Cal then put up 54 points in a win over Oregon State, lost the Big Game at Stanford but rallied to win a wild one over Arizona State 48-46 in the season finale to finish 7-5.

The Bears trailed the Sun Devils 24-3 midway through the second quarter, took their first lead early in the fourth quarter at 37-36, then later drove 69 yards in the last two minutes to set up the game-winning field goal as time ran out.

For the season, Cal ranks eighth in the country in total offense while averaging 37 points per game. The Bears are also 4-3 ATS when favored this season, and 3-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Air Force only started this season 3-3, although two of those losses came against eventual Big Ten champion Michigan State and a very good Navy team. But the Falcons then won five in a row, including an upset of Boise State in Boise, earning a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game. There, playing on San Diego State's home field, Air Force battled the Aztecs to a tie game through 55 minutes before falling 27-24.

So the Falcons finished 8-5 overall, 6-3 in MWC action and 9-4 ATS. They're also 4-1 ATS this season as underdogs, after covering the four points in that conference title tilt.

Air Force, as always, likes to move the ball on the ground, and they did so with great efficiency again this season, ranking second in the nation in rushing at 322 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense held six out of 12 opponents to 17 points or less.

Smart pick

Cal likes to throw the ball, but Air Force likes to run it, and usually the team that controls the clock has success in these types of matchups. That's why the smart play here is with the Falcons, plus the points.

Betting trends

Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.

The total has gone over in seven of California's last nine bowl games.

The total has gone under in four of the last five Armed Forces Bowls.

The underdog is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six Armed Forces Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.