Texas Bowl Betting: LSU vs. Texas Tech Odds, Analysis and Pick

LSU is just 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in its last four bowl games. Texas Tech, on the other hand, is 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS over its last four bowl appearances.

The Tigers will try to trip that recent trend, while the Red Raiders will hope to extend their run when the teams meet in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 29.

Texas Bowl Point Spread: The Tigers opened as 7.5-point favorites.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Tigers 41.6, Red Raiders 33.6

Why the Tigers Can Cover the Spread

LSU rode running back Leonard Fournette to a 7-0 start this season, knocking off Mississippi State and eventual SEC East champion Florida among others.

The Tigers then experienced some turbulence, though, losing three games in a row to SEC champion Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss, creating serious doubt as to the quality of this team and the future of head coach Les Miles in Baton Rouge.

But LSU awoke to beat Texas A&M 19-7 in the season finale and held on to Miles.

The Tigers out-gained and out-rushed the Aggies, the eighth time in 11 games they pulled that trick this season. On the whole, LSU ranks ninth in the country in rushing, 24th against the run, and out-rushing opponents by 110 yards is usually a good way to win a game and cover a spread.

Finally, LSU is 3-2 ATS this season when favored by a touchdown or less.

Why the Red Raiders Can Cover the Spread

Texas Tech opened this season 3-0 (with a win over Arkansas) but struggled through the middle of the season, losing five of seven games.

However, one of those losses came on a touchdown with 20 seconds left against TCU, another came against Oklahoma State in a game that was closer than the final score and another came by five points at West Virginia.

The Raiders then recovered just in time to win their last two, beating Kansas State and Texas to finish 3-0 ATS over their last three games.

Powered by the second-ranked offense in the country, Texas Tech averaged 47 points per game on the season and hit the 50-point mark six times.

The Raiders are also 4-3 ATS this season when getting points.

Smart Pick

The Tigers struggled down the stretch, a slump directly attributable to the almost total disappearance of Fournette and the running game. But Texas Tech is brutal against the run.

If the Tigers can just keep the chains moving, the Raiders offense can't score from the sidelines. The smart money here sides with LSU.

Betting Trends

• LSU is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four bowl games.
• Texas Tech is 4-0 SU in its last four bowl games.
• The total has gone under in seven of the last eight Texas Bowls.
• The favorite is 7-2 SU in the last nine Texas Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.