Military Bowl Betting: Pittsburgh vs. Navy Odds, Analysis and Pick

Navy is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in its last two bowls, while Pittsburgh is just 1-3 both SU and ATS over its last four bowls. The Midshipmen seek to send Keenan Reynolds off in style when they battle the Panthers in the Military Bowl.

Military Bowl point spread: The Midshipmen opened as five-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.2-25.6 Midshipmen

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Pitt started 6-1 in its first season under new head coach Pat Narduzzi; 4-0 in ACC play. The Panthers then suffered a tough loss to North Carolina and followed that up with a loss to Notre Dame. Two more victories followed, but Pitt came up dry in the season finale against Miami, losing 29-24 to finish at 8-4 overall, 6-2 in ACC play.

Of the Panthers' four losses, two came against teams that played in conference championship games, and one of those, at Iowa, came on a 57-yard field goal at the buzzer.

Pitt is 4-2 ATS this season when getting points and won three of those games outright.

Why the Midshipmen can cover the spread

Navy started 4-0 this season, then lost at Notre Dame 41-24. The Midshipmen then won five more in a row, setting up a showdown with Houston for the AAC's West Division title. But Navy ran into a buzz saw and lost to the Cougars 52-31, before beating Army for the 14th straight time in their season finale 21-17, finishing at 10-2 overall, 7-1 in AAC competition.

Led by Heisman-snub quarterback Keenan Reynolds, the Midshipmen rank third in the nation in rushing at 319 yards per game, while the Navy defense has limited 10 of 12 opponents to 21 points or fewer.

On the season, the Midshipmen are 8-4 ATS, 4-1 ATS over their last five games and 4-1 ATS when favored by a touchdown or less.

Smart pick

Playing against the option can be a real pain in the butt, and Reynolds runs it like a wizard. Pitt beat Georgia Tech earlier this year but gave up 376 yards to the Wreck's option rushing attack. The Midshipmen look like the smart money here.

Betting trends

Navy is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games against the ACC.

Pittsburgh is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four bowl games.

Navy is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.

The favored team is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven Military Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.