Hawaii Bowl Betting: San Diego State vs. Cincinnati Odds, Analysis and Pick

San Diego State closed its regular season as one of the hottest teams in the country, winning its last nine games in a row and going 8-1 against the spread. But the Aztecs will meet a challenge in Cincinnati's high-flying offense in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve in Honolulu.

Hawaii Bowl point spread: Bearcats opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.2-29.2 Aztecs

Why the Aztecs can cover the spread

The champions of the Mountain West started this season 1-3 with losses at Cal, at home to South Alabama and at Penn State. But the Aztecs won out from there, taking their last five regular season bouts by an average score of 42-13 to win the Mountain Division. San Diego State then outlasted Air Force in the MWC Championship Game 27-24 to win its first outright conference title in almost 30 years.

The Aztecs outgained the Falcons 436-340, running the ball for 233 yards and passing for 203. That's nine games in a row San Diego State has outgained its opponents, seven of those times by at least 120 yards, and often by much more.

The Aztecs rank 15th in the country in rushing at 235 yards per game, and fifth in both total defense and against the run, allowing just 111 yards per game on the ground.

Why the Bearcats can cover the spread

Cincy started this season 3-3, including a win over Miami, and losses to three pretty good teams in Memphis, Temple and BYU. The Bearcats then won four of their last six games, going 4-2 ATS, and one of those losses came by a field goal at eventual AAC champion Houston. UC capped off its season with a 19-16 victory at East Carolina on a field goal of its own at the end of regulation. 

The Bearcats trailed the Pirates early 10-0, but rallied for the victory and the cover as a two-point favorite on the road. Cincy outgained and outrushed East Carolina, the fifth time in its last eight games it's pulled that trick. The Bearcats are also 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests.

On the season Cincinnati ranks fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 559 yards per game.

Smart pick

Cincinnati owns the advantage on offense, but San Diego State owns the better defense. Aztecs quarterback Maxwell Smith might have a sore knee, but they like to run the ball anyway. The smart money here sides with San Diego State.

Betting trends

San Diego State is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four bowl games.

Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 Bowl games.

The total has gone under in the last four Hawaii Bowls.

The underdog has covered six of the last eight Hawaii Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.