Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. St. Louis Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) will try to break a seven-game losing streak against NFC West opponents when they visit the St. Louis Rams (5-8) in the Week 15 Thursday night matchup. The Bucs have also failed to beat the number in the past four meetings with the Rams, who are only 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Thursday appearances.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 40.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.8-18.7 Buccaneers

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Despite losing at home to the New Orleans Saints 24-17 as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday, Tampa Bay has still played much better lately than St. Louis. The Buccaneers had won three of their previous four games both straight up and ATS to get to the .500 mark. They are also a respectable 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road this season.

In addition, Tampa will have the better quarterback in this game, something that was not case last week against Drew Brees and the Saints. Even though rookie Jameis Winston has struggled at times, as most first-year players do, the Rams are currently stuck with veteran Case Keenum, who threw for only 124 yards with one interception last Sunday.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

St. Louis got some good news that rookie running back Todd Gurley did not sustain a serious knee injury in last week’s 21-14 upset win over the Detroit Lions as a three-point home underdog. Gurley was great versus the Lions, rushing for 140 yards on 16 carries, including two touchdowns. He has been the key to the team’s offensive success.

New offensive coordinator Rob Boras also did a fine job keeping the game plan simple, featuring Gurley and taking pressure off Keenum. Defensively, the Rams will continue to perform well as long as Gurley remains the focal point of the offense, moving the chains and taking time off the clock. The more time the offense possesses the ball, the less the defense will need to be on the field, and the more effective they can be.

Smart pick

Neither one of these teams has played well under the circumstances heading into this game, making the under the most attractive bet. The under has cashed in eight of the last nine games overall for St. Louis and eight of 11 on the road for Tampa Bay. The winner will be lucky to score 20 points here, so take the under in a low-scoring affair.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Rams.

The Rams are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 15.

The Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.