New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New York Jets (8-5) hope to continue their charge toward a potential playoff spot Saturday night when they visit the Dallas Cowboys (4-9). The Jets are riding a three-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread to put themselves in position to earn one of the AFC Wild Card berths, but they are 0-3 ATS in the past three meetings with the Cowboys.

Point spread: Jets opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.2-19.4 Jets

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York clearly has something Dallas does not going into this game—momentum. The Jets also have something to play for here and will not let the opportunity to pick up another key win pass them by. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games during the month of December, when their defense and running game can take center stage.

In last week’s dominant 30-8 victory against the Tennessee Titans, New York got 101 yards on the ground from running back Chris Ivory while quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick did not make any mistakes and threw for 263 yards with three touchdowns. Defensively, the Jets also held the Titans to only 24 rushing yards on 13 carries. If they can play like that again versus the Cowboys, they should have no problem covering the spread.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

For the second time in three weeks, Dallas was blown out by a division leader, and last Sunday it was a 28-7 home victory for the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys still hung around through the first three quarters before giving up two touchdowns in the fourth to produce the final margin. New York is not at the same level as the Packers though.

Dallas is sticking with Matt Cassel as the team’s starting quarterback despite his struggles, and calling more running plays would help take some pressure off him. Running backs Darren McFadden and Robert Turbin were bright spots for the Cowboys in the loss at Green Bay, totaling 162 rushing yards on 16 carries between them, with Turbin scoring their lone touchdown. They should be getting the ball more often this week.

Smart pick

This is a tough matchup for Dallas because the Packers just ran through the defense en route to a dominating win. The Jets are capable of doing the same thing here with Ivory, and they also have a pair of dangerous receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Look for the Cowboys to fall again at home and fail to cover against New York as well.

Betting trends

The Jets are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

The total has gone over in seven of the Cowboys' last 10 games at home in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.