Liberty Bowl Betting: Kansas State vs. Arkansas Odds, Analysis and Pick

Arkansas is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last four bowl games; Kansas State is just 1-4 both SU and ATS over its last five bowls. So the bowl betting trends seem to favor the Razorbacks heading into their scrap with the Wildcats in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee.

Liberty Bowl point spread: The Razorbacks opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.6-19.0 Razorbacks

Why the Wildcats can cover the spread

Coach Bill Snyder's Wildcats opened this season 3-0 but then struggled through a six-game losing streak. However, half of those losses came by one score or less, two of them in the final two minutes. Then, needing three wins in its last three games to become bowl-eligible, Kansas State did just that, knocking off Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia in succession to make a bowl for the sixth straight season.

The Wildcats trailed the Mountaineers early in the fourth quarter 23-17, but defensive back/kick return specialist Morgan Burns brought one back 97 yards for what turned out to be the game-winning score, his fourth kickoff return for a touchdown this season and his third in the last four weeks.

On the season, Kansas State is 4-3 ATS as an underdog and 1-0 ATS when getting double digits.

Why the Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Hogs stumbled out of the gate this season 1-3, fell to 2-4 after a loss to Alabama but finished with five wins in their last six games, including a 28-3 victory over Missouri in the regular-season finale. Arkansas outgained the Tigers by 139 yards, outrushed them by 120 and secured the cover as a 15-point favorite by pitching a shutout in the second half.

Arkansas has now outgained and outrushed six of its last nine opponents. It's also 6-2 ATS over its last eight games.

The Razorbacks would own a six-game winning streak if not for a late blocked field goal in a one-point loss to Mississippi State.

Smart pick

As the Bill Snyder era nears its end, Kansas State isn't the program it once was. The Wildcats have been outgained by nine of their last 10 opponents, six times by at least 130 yards. Arkansas, meanwhile, is averaging 40 points per game its last six times out, and that's without the overtime periods. The smart money here lies with the Hogs.

Betting trends

• Arkansas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against the Big 12.
• Kansas State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine bowl games.
• The total has gone under in Arkansas' last nine bowl games.
• The underdog has covered in six of the last eight Liberty Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.