Conor McGregor's Next Move Should Depend on UFC's Other Upcoming Title Fight

Conor McGregor writes his own ticket.

On the heels of his stunning 13-second knockout of Jose Aldo Saturday at UFC 194, that appears true both inside the Octagon and in life. For the foreseeable future, the 27-year-old Irishman will enjoy the rarest of political capital in combat sports as the promotional juggernaut who is also just as good as he claims to be.

After watching McGregor unceremoniously dethrone the greatest featherweight of all time with nothing more than a flick of his powerful left hand over the weekend, the most obvious—and most interesting—question becomes: What’s next?

Short answer: Whatever he wants.

Longer answer: No matter what he decides, it’s going to be complicated.

Lightweight? Featherweight? A rematch? A fresh challenge? A lot of different people are saying a lot of different things.

Because the UFC’s live-event schedule never stops for a breath, the fight company will stage a very serendipitously timed lightweight title fight between fledgling champion Rafael dos Anjos and well-liked challenger Donald Cerrone on December 19. It will air—as UFC President Dana White loves to shout at us—live and free on the Fox Network.

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone always shaped up as a fun, marketable scrap in the UFC’s most competitive weight class. Now, it turns out it’s going to be vitally important, too. All the smartest and most lucrative options for McGregor’s next step may well depend on who wins.

If we’ve learned anything about McGregor during nearly three years in the Octagon, it’s that he doesn’t lack for goals. In the immediate aftermath of his historic win over Aldo, he acknowledged to MMAFighting.com’s Ariel Helwani that there will be even more suitors now vying for his attention than before.

“There’s options; and I make the decision on this,” McGregor said, per Bleacher Report’s Stuart Newman. ”I feel I’ve earned the right to make decisions on this, so I’ll see what way it forms. I’ll listen to all angles and then I’ll make a decision.”

Aldo is screaming for a rematch. Consensus No. 1 featherweight contender Frankie Edgar badly wants a piece of him. Former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis has offered to welcome him to 155-pounds. White told Fox Sports late Saturday that he’ll book McGregor an immediate championship fight if he moves up.

"

"I'd bring him straight in for a title fight" - @danawhite on Conor McGregor fighting at 155. #UFC194 https://t.co/6nsnJ1In0x

— FOX Sports Live (@FOXSportsLive) December 13, 2015"

If Cerrone manages to unseat Dos Anjos, then a lightweight title shot for McGregor absolutely makes sense. A bout between the UFC’s likable “Cowboy” and its newly anointed top star would be the kind of thing it could promote at Ireland’s enormous Croke Park in early 2016.

That fight sells itself, and the matchup of styles presents a potentially winnable contest for McGregor. (Ed. Note: OK, fine, after watching him thump Aldo so easily, maybe they’re all winnable for McGregor at this point.)

But if Dos Anjos retains his title next weekend? Maybe not so much.

The 31-year-old Brazilian has been 155-pound champ for all of nine months and is so far proving to be one of the UFC’s most anonymous titlists. He’s been on the shelf since taking the gold from Pettis at UFC 185 and hasn’t had much luck at all connecting with fans.

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

In fact, aside from appearing at the UFC’s “Go Big” press conference in September, he’s been almost completely invisible during his reign.

A fight between McGregor and Dos Anjos might sell because McGregor can apparently sell any fight single-handedly, but it wouldn’t become a stadium-level phenomenon like a matchup with Cerrone would. It also potentially shapes up as a much different and arguably more difficult stylistic challenge for McGregor.

Dos Anjos’ grappling-based attack has proved very effective at grinding out decision victories over flashy strikers. He did it to Pettis in May and did it to Nate Diaz last December. If he manages to pull off the same trick against Cerrone next weekend, then putting McGregor into an immediate 155-pound title shot might start to seem fairly unappetizing.

Do UFC matchmakers really want to take the chance that their new golden goose goes out there and gets held on his back for five rounds by Dos Anjos? A tepid unanimous-decision loss would be an uninspiring way to begin The McGregor Era.

If McGregor immediately heads to lightweight, it also raises significant questions about what would happen to the featherweight division he just conquered. McGregor has been adamant that he would keep the 145-pound title and become a fighting champion in two weight classes.

But historically, the UFC has been steadfast in demanding that champions who jump weight vacate their belts. Would they make a special consideration for McGregor? Maybe, but White told Fox Sports that McGregor’s coach said if the fighter goes up to 155-pounds, he’s not coming back down.

“[Coach] John Kavanagh said in the Octagon [McGregor] will never make 145 again,” White said, via MMAJunkie.com’s Mike Bohn. “He said, ‘I don’t want him making that weight again; it’s not good for him.”

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

If that’s true, then it appears McGregor is about to leave featherweight in the lurch.

What would the UFC do to find a home for the suddenly vacant title? Set up a rematch between Edgar and Aldo? Could any self-respecting version of Aldo lose to McGregor in such an embarrassing, legend-shattering way and really just stay at 145-pounds to fight for the title he just lost? Doubt it.

If Aldo followed McGregor to lightweight seeking a rematch—a move he too has talked about for years—the featherweight class might immediately go from intensely interesting to feeling pretty shallow.

Book a fight for the homeless title between Edgar and Max Holloway? Or Edgar vs. Ricardo Lamas? Neither of those options exactly jump off the page, do they?

No, if Dos Anjos beats Cerrone next weekend, the best play for McGregor is to stay home at 145-pounds. He’d do big business, either in a rematch with Aldo or a bout against Edgar. Heck, maybe both.

If McGregor could manage one or two more fights at featherweight—Kavanagh's concerns notwithstanding, obviously—perhaps the Dos Anjos problem would take care of itself. Champions at lightweight sometimes don’t stay champion for long, after all.

None of this is to say anything of McGregor’s UFC contract. Leading up to the Aldo fight, he seemed poised to ask the UFC to break the bank on a new deal. Clearly, he didn’t do anything to undermine his bargaining power in the fight. After it, he told Helwani that he and the organization have "sorted a deal already. It is a very good one."

If that’s true, then perhaps the McGregor show can keep rolling without delay.

His next move will be an important one. No matter what he decides, we’ve all learned the hard way that when he says he’s going to do something, we should all respect his vision.

Those visions just keep coming true.