Free NFL Picks: Week Three

This week I want to touch on the ebb and flow theory of betting.

It is not a complicated theory, but it can be difficult to pull the trigger on certain bets. As a rule when it comes to following the ebb and flow theory: Don't waiver on your decisions.

You may drop two bets in row following the theory, but that does not mean you jump ship and bet differently in the third game.

The ebb and flow theory basically goes something like this: Find a team coming off an emotional win playing against a team that looks down in the dumps and bet against the team that is riding a high wave of emotions.

Last week Cincinnati fell into this role when it took on Green Bay. As it turned out, the Bengals won the game outright as nine-point pooches. It was a nice win to pick up along with the N.Y. Jets, but in the end it was only a 4-3 week. On the season I improved to 9-5.

Take one step further. Look at the poor S.O.B. in the picture above. He looks like he might cry. You would think it's because of the get-up, but who knows what's going on in his mind.

Well guess what? Even someone like him is going to have things fall in his favor at somepoint.

As usual the team I like appears first with the points in parentheses. Each game has a short write-up because let's be honest, people just want the pick and no necessarily my reasoning for it.

Tennessee (+2.5) @ N.Y. Jets

The Jets won a huge game on the road to open the season and then last week they won their Super Bowl as they knocked off the New England Patriots.

On the other side of the coin you have a Titans team that lost a defensive battle in Week One to Pittsburgh and then lost in a shootout to Houston in Week Two.

So why the Titans here?

It's all about the ebb and flow theory.

The Jets come back to reality in a rather harsh way. This is not a sign of things to come. It's just tough to constantly play at your best week in and week out. Toss in the fact the Titans must win and I will go with the Titans

Tennessee 23 - N.Y. Jets 10

N.Y. Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs are the worst team in the NFL so as long they are laying single digits I will bet against them. This kind of falls into the ebb and flow theory because the Giants are coming off an emotional win against the Cowboys.

However, the one problem is that Tampa Bay does not have the talent to get themselves up off the turf after being knocked down two weeks in a row

N.Y. Giants 34 - Tampa Bay 17

Detroit (+6.5) vs. Washington

This is it people.

The Detroit Lions will not only cover the number, but they will win the game. The line maker believes this is going to be a close game, which is more than I need to sway my decision.

If the line maker is saying it’s a close game, I’m buying into it.

Detroit 19 - Washington 17

San Diego (-6) vs. Miami

The Chargers aren't first in their division?

Seriously?

Well the Dolphins are the perfect remedy. The Fish are coming off a gut-wrenching defeat, playing on a short week, and they are flying cross country.

San Diego 32 - Miami 16

Carolina (+9) @ Dallas

The two dumbest quarterbacks collide on Monday Night.

Do yourself a favor and play a drinking game. Every time Tony Romo or Jake Delhomme does something dumb, take a shot.

You'll be wasted before halftime.

With such poor play on both sides of the ball I'll take the points.

I honestly believe Delhomme can exploit a Cowboys defense that is giving up far too many big plays this year.

Dallas 31 – Carolina 28

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) @ Arizona

The Colts can't stop the run and the Cardinals don't run very well.

Perfect, take the Colts plus the points here.

Call me a hater, but the Cardinals are frauds. Complete and utter frauds.

I know what everyone is saying too, "The Cardinals won at Jacksonville big and the Colts barely beat that same team at home. The Cardinals are definitely going to win."

If you use that logic, you're definitely an idiot.

Indianapolis 31 - Arizona 24

Buffalo (+6) vs. New Orleans

The Over/Under on this game is at 52 with a six-point spread. This means the line maker thinks the Bills can move the ball on the Saints.

I know Drew Brees is on fire right now, but that defense flat out stinks.

Think about this: The Saints opened the season against two quarterbacks making their NFL debut, I don't know if and when that's ever happened.

The Saints defense is flat out terrible, which is why they won't cover the number here.

New Orleans 30 - Buffalo 27