Fiesta Bowl Betting: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Ohio State struggled to cover spreads early this season but is 4-2 against the spread over its last six games. Conversely, Notre Dame started 6-1 ATS, then finished 2-3. In a matchup of two storied Midwestern football programs, the Buckeyes meet the Irish in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day.

Fiesta Bowl point spread: The Buckeyes opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.4-30.7 Buckeyes

Why the Fighting Irish can cover the spread

Notre Dame opened 4-0 this season, even after losing starting quarterback Malik Zaire for the season to an ankle injury in Week 2. The Irish then lost at eventual CFP qualifier Clemson 24-22, missing on a two-point conversion in the final seconds. Notre Dame bounced back to win six games in a row, knocking off Navy, USC and Temple, among others, playing itself back into national championship consideration, but then lost the season finale at Stanford on a field goal at the buzzer 38-36.

Notre Dame outgained the Cardinal 533-422 and outrushed them 299-153, but an unfortunate facemask penalty helped put Stanford in position for its game-winning kick. Still, with the cover as four-point dogs, the Irish are now 3-0 ATS this season when getting points.

Notre Dame is 3-2 in bowls under head coach Brian Kelly, after upsetting LSU in the Music City Bowl last year 31-28.

Why the Buckeyes can cover the spread

The defending national champion Buckeyes started 10-0 this season, even while seemingly sleepwalking at times. Then, in the game that ultimately meant everything, Ohio State suffered a 17-14 upset loss at home to Michigan State. The Buckeyes then chose to give their best performance of the season in the finale, pounding Michigan 42-13 at the Big House, easily covering as a two-point favorite.

Ohio State only led the Wolverines 14-10 at the half, then scored the first two touchdowns out of the locker room and added the last two touchdowns for the blowout. On the day, the Buckeyes outrushed Michigan 369-57, as running back Ezekiel Elliott popped off for 214 yards and a pair of scores.

Ohio State is now 4-2 ATS over its last six games. The Buckeyes are also 2-1 both SU and ATS in bowls under coach Urban Meyer, including last year's national championship romp over Oregon.

Smart pick

Notre Dame might own an edge on offense, but Ohio State owns the edge on defense. And perhaps that loss to Michigan State awoke the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State, minus the points.

Betting trends

Notre Dame is 0-7 SU in its last seven games in January.

Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven bowl games.

Notre Dame is 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS in its last 13 bowl games.

The underdog has covered in seven of the last nine Fiesta Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.