Orange Bowl Betting: Oklahoma vs. Clemson Odds, Analysis and Pick

Oklahoma ended the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, going 6-1 against the spread. Clemson, meanwhile, remains undefeated but is just 1-4 ATS over its last five games. The champions of the ACC match up against the champions of the Big 12 in the first national semifinal of this year's College Football Playoff when the Tigers battle the Sooners in the Orange Bowl on New Year's Eve day in Miami.

Orange Bowl point spread: Sooners opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.6-43.4 Tigers

Why the Sooners can cover the spread

Oklahoma overcame an early bad loss to Texas to not only win the Big 12 conference title but qualify for the CFP. The Sooners started 4-0 this season, lost to the Longhorns, then won their last seven games, clinching the conference championship by beating Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back the last three weeks of the season.

OU bombed the Cowboys in Stillwater 58-23, easily covering as an eight-point road favorite. The Sooners spotted OSU an early 10-7 lead, then they scored 27 unanswered points to take control. On the night, Oklahoma racked up 524 yards on offense, including 344 on the ground, as running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine both hit the century mark.

The Sooners have now outgained and outrushed each of their last seven opponents. And along with that recent 6-1 ATS run, they're also 4-0 ATS this season when favored by single digits.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

Clemson stands as the last remaining undefeated team in the country after outlasting North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game 45-37. The Tigers trailed the Heels late in the second quarter 16-14 but took control with a 28-7 run, although they later had to survive an interesting onside kick situation in the final moments.

On the day, Clemson outgained North Carolina 608-382, as quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 289 yards and ran for 131, accounting for five touchdowns. The Tigers have now outgained each of their last nine opponents—seven of them by 200 yards or more.

Finally, Clemson is 4-2 both straight up and ATS in six bowls under head coach Dabo Swinney. It destroyed this Oklahoma outfit last year 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Smart pick

It's not often the No. 1 team in the land is lined as an underdog, and yet most of the early betting action still leaned toward Oklahoma. This might be a good spot to go against the flow. Take the Tigers, plus the points.

Betting trends

Clemson is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games in December.

The total has gone under in eight of Clemson's last 11 bowl games.

The underdog has won SU and ATS in six of the last eight Orange Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.